Fuck Your Couch
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So why do you advocate going for two down 14?
Let's just assume to make it simple you're going to get both touchdowns without the other team scoring and you're 50% to get to 2 point and 100% for the XP. Then lets assume you have a 50% chance to win in OT.
If you go for 2 the first time and make it, you just have to go for 1 for the win so 50% win in regulation.
If you go for 2 the first time and miss, you go for 2 the 2nd time and make it to tie so 25% OT. Then half those times you also win.
You miss the 2 both times and lose in regulation 25% of the time.
Those combined odds are obviously better than a guaranteed OT and 50/50 odds.
The difference is the fact that you need 2 scores anyway, and the first 2 point attempt dictates your future action.
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