Doral Moore

[jaybone]

We would be better off if Chill was better and could play his minutes and Wilbekin's minutes.

A legit backup SF would be nice.

Fuck, PH. For these current frosh Mitchell, Sam, and Rich Wash - I am almost happy they are getting no minutes as they won't imprint their frosh year performances on yours and other's brains.

The running hypo is that Wilbekin is horrible at defense. Of course, this runs counter to the first 9 games but whatever. Wilby is no stopper, but he is staying in front of his man better than Crawford so far this year, taking charges, all of it. But fuck if folks don't hold his frosh year defense against him two years later.

Crawford has been going up against some good PGs but he has been playing quite a bit of olay defense this year. More so than anyone else on the team besides perhaps Chill.

 

[MichDeac25]

We didn't sign Chill to get Giles. We signed him because his dad is the assistant coach and he is good enough to warrant a scholarship. If the staff cared that much about recruiting Giles' teammates, they wouldn't have backed off on Jalen Johnson and Kwe like they did.

Forgot about those names. Jalen Johnson is redshirting at Tennessee and Kwe isn't playing much.

 

[wakelaw13]

You can say the same thing about Childress right now. Wilbekin is the better option.

I agree Wilbekin is a better option than Chill right now, especially offensively. I trust Wilbekin shooting an open 3, and frankly neither has been very good off the dribble.

The only thing I would change is Wilbekin should be the first guy off of the bench, not Woods. Followed by Moore/McClinton/Chill, depending on who they're coming in for.

 

[Fuck Your Couch]

wilbekin has 130 offensive rating so far this year, that is very much a plus on offense. other top o-ratings on the team are arians (138), woods (136) and JC (130).

wilbekin does have the worst rotation defensive rating at 109, but it is not super out of line with the other players, and his offense *so far* has more than made up for his defense.

a lot of the criticism seems to be because he starts, but he can definitely be a contributing role player on a good team.

 

[PhDeac]

Koby McEwen is putting up decent numbers at Utah State, but I haven't watched him play.

Yeah. Nice frosh SG numbers (10.8 pts, 4.4 reb, 3.3 ast, .477 fg, .357 3pt).

 

[Deacsfan27]

wilbekin has 130 offensive rating so far this year, that is very much a plus on offense. other top o-ratings on the team are arians (138), woods (136) and JC (130).

wilbekin does have the worst rotation defensive rating at 109, but it is not super out of line with the other players, and his offense *so far* has more than made up for his defense.

a lot of the criticism seems to be because he starts, but he can definitely be a contributing role player on a good team.

TITCR

 

[JuiceCrewAllStar]

wilbekin has 130 offensive rating so far this year, that is very much a plus on offense. other top o-ratings on the team are arians (138), woods (136) and JC (130).

I know nothing about the methodology, but this does not pass the #eyetest.

 

[Fuck Your Couch]

I know nothing about the methodology, but this does not pass the #eyetest.

it's basically points per individual possession of the ball. so he doesn't possess the ball much other than catch and shoot, unlike JC who has tons of possessions as focal point of offense. so JC's 130 is more impressive than Wilbekin's 130. But 130 is good.

 

[PhDeac]

So it's saying Wilbekin doesn't kill us on offense.

 

[Deacsfan27]

it's basically points per individual possession of the ball. so he doesn't possess the ball much other than catch and shoot, unlike JC who has tons of possessions as focal point of offense. so JC's 130 is more impressive than Wilbekin's 130. But 130 is good.

He doesn't turn the ball over either.

Wilbekin is doing much more than not killing us on offense. He's ranked 112th in the nation among qualified players individually in offensive rating.

For reference, Dinos and Chill both have 96 offensive ratings.

 

[bmoneydeac]

I haven't looked but it's based on super low usage. Which is fine because to have some 30% type guys you have to have some sub 18% guys. As long as those 18% or whatever possessions are mostly clean jumpshots he's going to rate highly.

Of course if there were 4 injuries and suddenly he had to be a 28%+ usage guy his numbers would plummet.

 

[Deacsfan27]

I haven't looked but it's based on super low usage. Which is fine because to have some 30% type guys you have to have some sub 18% guys. As long as those 18% or whatever possessions are mostly clean jumpshots he's going to rate highly.

Of course if there were 4 injuries and suddenly he had to be a 28%+ usage guy his numbers would plummet.

Right---usage and offensive rating usually have an inverse relationship. As your usage goes up your offensive rating goes down. That's why what John Collins is doing is so damn impressive. He is at 30% usage (47th in the nation in that), and still 142nd in offensive rating. Despite touching the ball way more than most people in the country he is still performing at a very high rate.

For comparison, Mitch has a 13% usage.

Definitions from KenPom:

Percentage of possessions used (%Poss): A measure of personal possessions used while the player is on the court. Simply assigns credit or blame to a player when his actions end a possession, either by making a shot, missing a shot that isn’t rebounded by the offense, or committing a turnover.

Percentage of shots taken (%Shots): This is the percentage of a team’s shots taken, while the player is on the court. This is a pretty good proxy for %Poss, and significantly easier to calculate. It is PlayerFGA / (%Min * TeamFGA).

 

[DCDeac]

wilbekin has 130 offensive rating so far this year, that is very much a plus on offense. other top o-ratings on the team are arians (138), woods (136) and JC (130).

wilbekin does have the worst rotation defensive rating at 109, but it is not super out of line with the other players, and his offense *so far* has more than made up for his defense.

a lot of the criticism seems to be because he starts, but he can definitely be a contributing role player on a good team.

But there's some eye-test stuff going on here, as well as some last year history, that suggests his struggles are going to get worse and stay worse once we play better teams. He disappeared against Northwestern. He didn't score until we were already down by 14 in our Nova loss. We've played 9 games and he has 1 or fewer boards in 6 of them. Even Childress only has 3 such games in far fewer minutes. Teams with an elite guard seek him out as a mismatch on offense. The free throws are great but he barely gets fouled once a game.

Last year he scored in double digits in 5 of our first 9 games and shot 40% from deep. Then he had just as many zero point games as he had double digit games until the end of the regular season. No turnovers is great as well, but if it comes with exactly one ACC game the entire season with more than 2 assists... He just screams role player, as do Childress and Moore. Which is fine. But right now it's too many minutes for not enough production, made worse by having to defend a starting-quality guard for most of those minutes.

 

[bmoneydeac]

So is Kenpom able to track which of a player's shots were ORebounded rather than just use some sort of team-wide measure? So if we had 10 ORB in a game and they all came on one player's misses, that player would use 10 fewer possessions for the game than their shots + TO would indicate?

I wonder if team ORB% for a particular player's shots is instructive at all. Like I used to think that Ish had a lot of his blown layups ORebounded because they usually came from him getting to the rack and help coming to defend, leaving guys to crash. No clue if that holds up statistically tho.

 

[Fuck Your Couch]

But there's some eye-test stuff going on here, as well as some last year history, that suggests his struggles are going to get worse and stay worse once we play better teams. He disappeared against Northwestern. He didn't score until we were already down by 14 in our Nova loss. We've played 9 games and he has 1 or fewer boards in 6 of them. Even Childress only has 3 such games in far fewer minutes. Teams with an elite guard seek him out as a mismatch on offense. The free throws are great but he barely gets fouled once a game.

Last year he scored in double digits in 5 of our first 9 games and shot 40% from deep. Then he had just as many zero point games as he had double digit games until the end of the regular season. No turnovers is great as well, but if it comes with exactly one ACC game the entire season with more than 2 assists... He just screams role player, as do Childress and Moore. Which is fine. But right now it's too many minutes for not enough production, made worse by having to defend a starting-quality guard for most of those minutes.

if the argument is he will play worse, okay, i can't argue against a future that hasn't happened. in totality this year his junior season wilbekin has played well.

So is Kenpom able to track which of a player's shots were ORebounded rather than just use some sort of team-wide measure? So if we had 10 ORB in a game and they all came on one player's misses, that player would use 10 fewer possessions for the game than their shots + TO would indicate?

I wonder if team ORB% for a particular player's shots is instructive at all. Like I used to think that Ish had a lot of his blown layups ORebounded because they usually came from him getting to the rack and help coming to defend, leaving guys to crash. No clue if that holds up statistically tho.

ah the kobe assist. you're right about the role of ish penetrating, but he also played with the #1 offensive rebounder in all of cbb for 2 years in Farouq along with 2 years of James Johnson wrecking shop on the boards. one of our best offensive plays on those teams was an ish miss.

 

[Deacsfan27]

But there's some eye-test stuff going on here, as well as some last year history, that suggests his struggles are going to get worse and stay worse once we play better teams. He disappeared against Northwestern. He didn't score until we were already down by 14 in our Nova loss. We've played 9 games and he has 1 or fewer boards in 6 of them. Even Childress only has 3 such games in far fewer minutes. Teams with an elite guard seek him out as a mismatch on offense. The free throws are great but he barely gets fouled once a game.

Last year he scored in double digits in 5 of our first 9 games and shot 40% from deep. Then he had just as many zero point games as he had double digit games until the end of the regular season. No turnovers is great as well, but if it comes with exactly one ACC game the entire season with more than 2 assists... He just screams role player, as do Childress and Moore. Which is fine. But right now it's too many minutes for not enough production, made worse by having to defend a starting-quality guard for most of those minutes.

Not to pimp my article too hard, but this is what I discussed in the "who should start" BSD post:

Wilbekin is shooting the following against Tier A/B/Other teams through his first two seasons. A is 1-50 in KP, B 51-100, Other 100+...all adjusted for Home Court Advantage (for example Richmond is a Tier B despite being outside KP 100 because it was @Richmond).

Tier A - 29% (31/106)
Tier B - 29% (23/79)
Tier A/B - 29% (54/185)
Other - 47% (57/121)

Total - 36% (111/306)

You can argue that that's not predictive of what will happen this year, but I would strongly suggest that he will fall off from his start this year. Even in a very small sample size, he is 3-13 against A+B teams this year, and 10-22 against the other teams from three.

By looking at the shooting simply from a results standpoint, we can argue with high likelihood that Woods is a better shooter than Wilbekin. There is little doubt that Woods will regress from his 49% as he takes on more A+B Tier teams this season, but it would require a precipitous drop over his next 200 3-point attempts to drop to the 36% that Wilbekin is shooting now in over 300 attempts.

Woods is not a typical college 6th man. He is not one-dimensional at all because he rebounds well, has a decent assist rate, can knock down 3’s at a high rate, and can create his own shot. I’m guessing a lot of Wilbekin’s deficiencies in shooting the three-ball against A-B Tier teams comes from lack of ability to get a clean look based on size and limited ability to make his own shot.

 

[Fuck Your Couch]

i don't think how he shoots against certain teams is predictive. 3 point % defense isn't really a thing.

 

[Deacsfan27]

i don't think how he shoots against certain teams is predictive. 3 point % defense isn't really a thing.

Also an interesting point since the only thing that is seemingly relevant is how many you allow in the first place.

 

[Fuck Your Couch]

Also an interesting point since the only thing that is seemingly relevant is how many you allow in the first place.

yes, this is the kenpom school of thought.

 

[Deacsfan27]

That's actually an interesting thought in terms of "stats" vs. "eye test".

From a "feel" standpoint I would explain that Mitch struggles against A+B Tier teams because they are usually made up of:

A. Better athletes
B. Better defenders
C. Both

One would logically think that teams with better athletes and better defenders would allow a lower percentage to a three-point shooter than a team with lesser athletes and lesser defenders.

He is also almost always the shortest player on the court when he plays in the ACC, meaning he has to shoot over his defender more frequently if he can't create his own shot/get open.