Since the NOA was released I have taken a little time each day to check out the UNC message boards. I have been surprised at the celebratory mood and the level of confidence that people seem to have that football and men’s basketball will come away largely unscathed. So I decided to do some further reading and came to my own conclusion that these issues will be very difficult for the NCAA to bring severe penalties. This is uncharted territory for the NCAA. UNC is arming itself for a battle. They retained Skadden Arps. They retained former Committee on Infractions member Jo Potuto. My guess is that the NCAA wants no part of a fight on these issues.
I have zero expertise in this area, but based on my reading here are the two major paths that the NCAA could go down:
Path #1 – Declare the AFAM independent study classes fraudulent or invalid
This path would have the most severe implications for UNC. It would mean that former athletes could be declared ineligible. There could be penalties for Athletic Department employees that knew the classes were fraudulent and used them to maintain athlete eligibility.
This path seems very unlikely though. Mark Emmert has effectively stated that it is not the NCAAs job to regulate academic quality (April press conference).
Surprisingly, UNC has not conceded that these classes were fraudulent or invalid. They call them “irregular”, not fraudulent or invaild. They have not revoked anyone’s previous credits or diplomas. The Southern Association of Colleges (SACS) has done some investigating, but they haven’t declared them invalid either. At least not yet. So how can the NCAA take the lead on this? What standard would they use?
The situation is further muddied by the fact that the Weinstein Report did not find any instances where a grade was given without performing any work. But if the NCAA does want to declare the classes fraudulent they have obvious ammunition. The Weinstein report says that “they lacked several essential components of an academically sound course – such as faculty involvement and grading”. It also concludes that there was no relationship between the quality of the work and the grades obtained. But I just can’t envision the NCAA taking this on. This is also where UNC would probably threaten the biggest legal battle since it would (presumably?) require them to revoke degrees. If they don’t take in on, then the worst offenses will go unpunished. If the classes aren’t determined to be fraudulent, it won’t matter who knew about the classes etc etc.
Path #2: Determine that UNC athletes received impermissible benefits
This path seems more likely, but still difficult for the NCAA. Based on what I read, if the NCAA concludes that athletes received special access to these classes or better grades than the other students in this class then the NCAA could rule that there were impermissible benefits. There are some helpful facts in the Weinstein Report. Athletes made up 47% of the AFAM classes when they were only 4% of the student body. They can look at “add ons” to classes that happened outside of the normal enrollment process. But the Weinstein Report almost goes out of its way in many cases to point out that grades were similarly inflated for all students in the class. So there weren’t really preferential grades for athletes. It also goes on and on about how the classes were similarly abused by the fraternities. After re-reading the Weinstein Report I felt like it almost went out of its way to lay out UNC’s defense for them.
With all this being said, I think the NCAA is dealing with political pressure and I think UNC understands that. I could definitely see how the two parties might want to effectively negotiate a settlement that looks like a major penalty without doing UNC much harm. That way the NCAA can sidestep criticism while avoiding a prolonged legal fight with UNC.