dartsndeacs
THE quintessential dwarf
From 8/7/15 on the Republicans from POTUS thread. I'll settle for $140. $1,400 is a little rich, a $10 bet seems more this board's style. I mean if you'd "gladly" do it, I assume you'll do it for any amount, but I can be generous, I just bet the big bucks cause I'm pretty much always right about everything.
Editor's note: #calledit
So someone explain this to me: (I don't pay attention to politics)
This site has trump as the huge favorite by all polls (25% votes to Trump, next highest bush is 12%)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep..._republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html
Then this site has the republican primary odds showing a landslide to bush (42% to be the nominee, Trump 7%)
http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2016repnomination
Which one of those is off?
You're understanding of the max value of a candidate's outreach?
huh? drop the snark, I wanna know
Oh, OK. Happy to do that then.
Trump appeals to a good number of Republican leaning people. Trump appalls a different subset of different Republican leaning people. Trump gets little support from independent leaning people and no support from Democrat leaning people.
Trump will max out at around 30-35% in the polls because he is so polarizing. The people that love him, love him. The people that hate him, hate him. How many people out there haven't formed an opinion on Donald Trump already? Not many and that is why his long term viability as a candidate is limited.
Bush, conversely, is much less combative, so easier for non-true believers to get behind him once the field dwindles from this ridiculous 17 to a more appropriate 4 or 5. Basically, in short, Trump has more "upsideability" (cheers, Bilas) for drawing from other candidates' supporters than Trump does. Less polarizing = more electable.
Thanks. Also found this which helps explain it from 2012
http://www.predictwise.com/taxonomy/term/32
I think both the "reasons" don't apply. Everyone already knows everything about Trump, I don't think more exposure will hurt him. I also doubt Bush has a chance vs Clinton. People love the drama and shitshow, Trump's only going to get more popular (I jumped on board 2-3 days ago). People will want a non-politician, and Hillary is weird looking. Trump looks like good betting value as a betting man. If he just comes up with 1-2 good overall specific ideas/plans, people will rally around them. #hotpoltakes #scoooop
Editor's note: #calledit
What are Trump's odds of being elected President?
William Hill has as 14:1 for president, and that predictwise site has him as 14:1 for the republican nomination.
Now I'm sad. I basically said the same thing but you just took my words as snark.
Your words hurt, palma. Your. Words. Hurt.
I'd gladly bet against those odds.
I'll go $100 on him winning the Republican nomination, $1400 if he does, $100 to you if he doesn't.
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