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Ken Pomery/Tennessee Rank Question (NWT)

Also just as a general reminder in case this hasn't been stated or brought up: the KP system is entirely objective. KenPom does not "pick" any team, nor does he "favor" any team. The only thing subjective is which metrics are used and how they are tailored to operationalize the data.
 
BiffTannen said:
I picked every Final Four winner from 1956 to 2000. I was an unstoppable handicapper and it had nothing to do with KenPom or statistics or anything other than my keen sense of observation.
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that's hilarious
 
BiffTannen said:
I picked every Final Four winner from 1956 to 2000. I was an unstoppable handicapper and it had nothing to do with KenPom or statistics or anything other than my keen sense of observation.
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You lost the sports results book.
 
teddy sevransky ‏@teddy_covers 19h
Winner of the 'play-in' between #11 seeds Iowa and Tennessee will ABSOLUTELY be favored over #6 seed UMass in Vegas, by a couple of buckets
 
Billy Mitchell said:
teddy sevransky ‏@teddy_covers 19h
Winner of the 'play-in' between #11 seeds Iowa and Tennessee will ABSOLUTELY be favored over #6 seed UMass in Vegas, by a couple of buckets
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Agreed. Does kenpom generally sync up with Vegas?
 
RJKarl said:
You lost the sports results book.
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Depends on which version of the future you believe. Did you see BTTF 2? You just want to believe that meddling Doc Brown and McFly boy can reverse what's already been done.
 
qcdeac said:
Agreed. Does kenpom generally sync up with Vegas?
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They're normally close. Vegas does a better job of modeling very recent results and injuries.

If Tennessee wins and remains at their current position, they will be around a five or six point favorite over UMass (Ohio State, who is six spots worse than Tennessee is a four point favorite on KP over Dayton, who is one spot behind UMass). If Iowa wins, they will be a three or four point favorite (similar to the UNC-Providence game, plus an extra point or two for the 12 spots worse that Dayton is than Providence)
 
PPI8P9b.png
 
How awful do your MS Paint skills have to be you just pull out the Crayolas?

Cause you gotta be pretty close.
 
He's talking about Tennessee now.

...Doesn't look at just wins and losses, with a 30 game season and a lot of mismatched games, imagine if the NBA had a 25 game season, would be a lot of fluky results, etc. Talked about how they were a possession or two away from beating Florida...

Basically what everybody was saying in here.

He spent a lot of time talking about his system vs RPI, one of his criticisms about RPI is "wins vs top 50", says there shouldn't be a difference between the meaning of a win over a #50 team and a #51 team.

In criticizing his own system, says he's worried about Virginia.
 
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TexasDeac10 said:
This is some millenial BULLSHIT but the Harvard undergrads have a little sports analytics club (Harvard Sports Analytics Collective). They post things to their blog every now and then at www.harvardsportsanalysis.org.

Anyway, they've done an NCAA bracket model every year based on what they call Survival Analysis. Its basic premise is that postseason games are fundamentally different than regular season games, and then it does some statty stuff to account for that. Here's the big 2012 post: http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpr...t-a-new-model-for-ncaa-tournament-prediction/

They also did one for 2013: http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpr...-fittest-predicting-the-2013-ncaa-tournament/

Does it work? From 2012:

screen-shot-2013-02-19-at-5-33-26-pm.png
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Where is the 2014 version? Fucking millennials....
 
So if Tennessee wins tonight, it's agreed that rj is banned to 1 thread? y/y
 
Interesting Vegas vs. KP spreads:

FavoriteUnderdogVegasKP
FloridaAlbany21.5165.5
WisconsinAmerican13.585.5
LouisvilleManhattan16.5124.5
VirginaCoastal Carolina21174
SyracuseWestern Michigan13103
MichiganWofford15123
Michigan StateDelaware14113
KentuckyKansas St633

Who wants to take a crack at explaining each game? From previous analysis I did, when KP was 3.5 points or more away from Vegas, betting KP would only win 45% of the time (compared to 55% when KP was 1.5-3 points different).

- UF, Wisconsin, and Syracuse have home court advantage
- Michigan State healthy
- Kentucky combo b/t having the talent that is peaking and public team
 
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Another interesting note. For the first round games (Thus/Fri), KP predicts the games to be closer than Vegas in all except for 2: Ok v ND St (3 vs 4) and UNC v Providence (both say 4).

This this is simply an example of people betting favorites up? Or more to this?
 
Vegas is probably taking into account Florida/Albany being in Orlando, while KP would theoretically just consider it a neutral court.
 
RedSoxFaithful said:
Vegas is probably taking into account Florida/Albany being in Orlando, while KP would theoretically just consider it a neutral court.
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Valid point. Believe KP uses 100+ miles away and would have thought that was close enough, but looks like it's about 120 miles.
Wisconsin is also playing in Milwaukee, basically home court.

What about others?
 
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