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Offical Sports Betting Thread

Have some futures I mentioned earlier in the thread for the NCAAT. Here's how they're looking heading into the New Year. I got a handful before the season, a couple in the first two weeks, and added UConn two weeks ago:

Value is up:

BYU to make Final Four 60-1 (now 11-1) - Draftkings
Nevada to make Final Four 100-1 (now 60-1) - Draftkings
BYU to win the title 150-1 (now 60-1) - ESPN
Houston to win the title 22-1 (now 13-1) - ESPN

Value is the same:

Uconn to win the title 13-1 - Draftkings
Florida to make Final Four 25-1 - Draftkings
Nevada to win the title 500-1 - MGM

Value is worse:

Gonzaga to win the title 22-1 (now 35-1) - Draftkings

BYU in the conference season should be a lot of fun to watch. UConn without Clingan may drive odds slightly off for a dip if they struggle but he's going to be back for the tourney run. Something to keep an eye on for sure.
 
Added a small bet on Illinois at 80-1 to win the title on ESPN. Very surprised to see that number overall and it’s out of line with the other books
 
Bama (+1.5) is an underdog to Michigan in the CFP Semifinal. First time Bama is an underdog to someone other than UGA since 2009, in any game. 2009 that was 14 years and more than 150 games ago.

Bama has been a dog to UGA four times during that span and won straight up and covered three.

Harbaugh has lost six straight bowl games -- straight up.

Saban is 11-3 SU and ATS in his last 14 bowl/CFP games. Including beating Harbaugh and Michigan 35-16 in the 2019 Citrus Bowl.

For those into recruiting, IIRC, Bama has 18 five star recruits on the roster. Michigan has two.

According to Sagarin, Michigan played the #56 schedule this year; Bama #8.

Through its first 8 games, Michigan played no team rated higher than #56 (Rutgers). In Michigan's last four games against Penn State, MD, tOSU and Iowa, Michigan's offensive output:

  • Penn State - 227 yards
  • Maryland - 291 yards
  • tOSU - 338 yards
  • Iowa - 213 yards

An average of 267 yards a game. 267 yards a game would rank 128th out of 130 FBS teams.

Wrong team is favored. Rarely is there a spot like this in a high profile game.
 
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Jumping back into the college basketball pool after a pretty slow last week. Did hit on Nevada 3-0 ATS in Hawaii. Doofus and my record for the year sitting at 104-87-2 getting into conference play. Up 29.7 units overall on the season - number inflated due to promos/profit boosts; 15.9% ROI.

Oregon -2.5
Oregon State +6.5

Looking over any other interesting games today as well. I would've bet the under in the BC/SMU football game with the horrible weather but cannot bet on BC
 
I was looking at Oregon State, but then saw that Oregon State is the #1 team in that nation in KP's luck rankings, and UCLA is is #361. So, you have the luckiest team in the nation versus the unluckiest. Suspect regression is coming. OTOH, this is likely the last time UCLA ever plays at Oregon State; would guess the Beaves are motivated.

Oregon has been playing without three players that have started this year: Nate Bittle, Keeshawn Barthelemy and Jesse Zarzuela. Any idea if any of those three are playing?

Caution against forcing plays because CBB is starting back up.
 
Looks like Bittle and Zarzuela may be done for the season. Barthelemy may be back for tonight. Have little feel for the Pac-12. Almost all of the action tonight is outside of the ACC region. There are a ton of playable games starting tomorrow.
 
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Wakeforest22890 said:
Added a small bet on Illinois at 80-1 to win the title on ESPN. Very surprised to see that number overall and it’s out of line with the other books
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Did ESPN know ?!

Terrence Shannon (probably the second best Big 10 player) arrested for rape...just announced a few minutes ago.
 
Well they hadn't updated anything yet on ESPN and so I just cashed out for exactly what I bet. No harm no foul (on my end...not the same for Shannon/alleged victim/that entire situation)
 
What's the link between ESPN reporting and insiders and ESPN Bet? Obviously any sportsbook has their own way of getting insider info, but is Woj feeding NBA injury updates to ESPN Bet minutes before he tweets them?
 
PhDeac said:
What's the link between ESPN reporting and insiders and ESPN Bet? Obviously any sportsbook has their own way of getting insider info, but is Woj feeding NBA injury updates to ESPN Bet minutes before he tweets them?
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This is a great question and also, I believe, one of the issues that ESPN had overall in getting up and running their sportsbook. My understanding is that the answer ESPN provided and regulators needed was that the folks running the Penn risk room would not have any communication whatsoever with analysts, insiders, etc. from ESPN
 
In the "I have no idea what's going on" side of things. You can actually now bet Illinois 50-1 to win the title, and I literally bet thm 80-1 this morning before this info about Shannon came out. @Pilchard help us!
 
PhDeac said:
What's the link between ESPN reporting and insiders and ESPN Bet? Obviously any sportsbook has their own way of getting insider info, but is Woj feeding NBA injury updates to ESPN Bet minutes before he tweets them?
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Interesting issue with lots of potential for conflicts of interest.

If ESPN has info about player injuries or players sitting out, there is a lot a value to that information.

Here is an example from yesterday's games that caused a firestorm in the betting world:

Mikal Bridges was upset that coach Jacque Vaughn rested the Nets starters Wednesday, but bettors loved it.

Alerted to it by a few X accounts, notably @DK_DFS, who was sharp to the Nets looking to keep their star wing’s consecutive active games streak intact, bettors flocked to their betting apps in the early afternoon Wednesday.

Many bettors posted a same-game parlay on Bridges’ player prop unders, including his points, rebounds, assists and 3-pointers made.

One NBA bettor who saw the tweet early bet $20 at +1400 to payout $300 on Bridges under 23.5 points, 1.5 3-pointers made, 4.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists.

These wagers hit easily, with Bridges playing only 12 minutes in the 144-122 loss to the Bucks.

The fact that Bridges played at all is noteworthy, as when a player checks in as active all player props stand regardless of sport or minutes played.

His final stat line ended at six points, three rebounds, one assist and 0-for-1 from 3-point land. That third rebound is the only thing that saved the bookies from likely thousands more of losses.

If ESPN bet has this information first, they can just take the prop bet off the board (and have their insiders bet on other sites).
 
Looking at tomorrow's MBB games, North Florida plays at Miami.

North Florida's last two games:

91-75 loss at FSU
78-60 loss at UGA

So what?

In the loss at FSU, NF shot 12 two point shots and 46 threes. Yes, 46 threes. Chaz Lanier played 26 minutes and shot 15 threes (making 5)
In the loss at UGA, must have ignored the game-plan as they shot 22 two pointers and 42 threes. Six players shot at least five threes.

On the season, NF leads the nation with 54% of all FG attempts are threes (the D-1 average is 37%). Their coach Matt Driscoll wants his team shooting as many threes as possible.
 
Oregon led by double digits most of the game and that cover was never really in doubt. Oregon State was up at the half lost by 7 for the half point miss. Vegas nailed that game, within a couple points on the total and half a point off on the spread.
 
I had Elon -4.5 and they won by 4 when they took a shot clock violation up 7 with 4 seconds left and Valpo hit a 3 at the buzzer. You win some you lose some
 
Kings/Hawks O/U today is 252.2. Seems high but I guess that's the NBA?
 
They are both up tempo teams with a bad defense and good offense. I always assume games where Vegas has a seemingly low or high total they've got a really good reason for having it there.
 
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