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Reasonable Expectations

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RChildress107

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Interested to get everyone's take on what they consider reasonable expectations for year 3 and year 4 of the rebuild.

Looking specifically for overall record, ACC record, postseason play (tournament, seed, advancement), final AP/coaches ranking, and final Kenpom ranking. Feel free to add other criteria.
 
This year 16-14 (7-11) - Win at least 1 ACCT game and finish season in the RPI top 50
Next year 18-19 wins and (10-8) - NCAAT appearance
 
Year 3: 16-14(7-11), Top 11 ACC seed (1 win), Unranked, top 50.

Year 4: 18-12(9-9), Top 9 ACC seed (1 win), NIT (high seed, 3 wins) OR NCAA( any seed), receiving votes, top 35
 
From where we stand I want to see us get to 16 wins and perhaps an NIT berth this season.

Next year I want to get to 18-19 wins and an NCAA Tournament berth with a .500 or slightly better conference record.

If we manage to get to 7 conference wins this year we will likely finish top 50. I think next year somewhere around 25th-30th in KP would be a reasonable expectation.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
From where we stand I want to see us get to 16 wins and perhaps an NIT berth this season.

Next year I want to get to 18-19 wins and an NCAA Tournament berth with a .500 or slightly better conference record.

If we manage to get to 7 conference wins this year we will likely finish top 50. I think next year somewhere around 25th-30th in KP would be a reasonable expectation.
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I'm looking for expectations as of 4/15/2014. Not sure if that would change yours.
 
14 wins in 2014 - top 75 RPI - Be a competent P5 basketball program. Begin rebuilding roster and implementing system
16 wins in 2015 - top 50 RPI - no postseason but noticeable improvement. Establish a system and improve recruiting
18 wins in 2016 - top 30 RPI - NCAAT first round
20 wins in 2017 - top 25 RPI - NCAAT second round

That would be my trajectory if you asked me at the beginning of Danny's first year what should be expected.
 
CreamyGoodness said:
14 wins in 2014 - top 75 RPI - Be a competent P5 basketball program. Begin rebuilding roster and implementing system
16 wins in 2015 - top 50 RPI - no postseason but noticeable improvement. Establish a system and improve recruiting
18 wins in 2016 - top 30 RPI - NCAAT first round
20 wins in 2017 - top 25 RPI - NCAAT second round

That would be my trajectory if you asked me at the beginning of Danny's first year what should be expected.
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Can you find me an example of a coach that has met those expectations after taking over a ~125 Kenpom team or worse?

I'd even settle for ~90 or worse. If those are achievable expectations I imagine some coach out there has achieved them.
 
RChildress107 said:
Can you find me an example of a coach that has met those expectations after taking over a ~125 Kenpom team or worse?
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Nope. Not saying there's not one, just don't feel like looking around. I'd be curious to see Va tech before and since Buzz.

I based my projections on being a "historically competitive" basketball program, in a P5 conference, that has no reason to remain in the cellar.
 
CreamyGoodness said:
14 wins in 2014 - top 75 RPI - Be a competent P5 basketball program. Begin rebuilding roster and implementing system
16 wins in 2015 - top 50 RPI - no postseason but noticeable improvement. Establish a system and improve recruiting
18 wins in 2016 - top 30 RPI - NCAAT first round
20 wins in 2017 - top 25 RPI - NCAAT second round

That would be my trajectory if you asked me at the beginning of Danny's first year what should be expected.
Click to expand...

lol, get the fuck out of here.

first of all, there was only 2 players that were ACC level when he got here in 14 and both were very flawed. He needed to turn over the entire roster...just not going to live up to any of this.
 
I think it was just a week ago I read someone say this dude just loves the sound of his own voice when everyone was beyond ready to move past a boring Steph Curry debate and now there's three threads for him to run wild on this boring topic as we prepare for the inevitable tailspin.


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RChildress asked for expectations as of 2014, not 2017.

I can be pretty LOWF, but to only expect 1 NCAAT win in 4 years doesn't seem like I'm "shooting for the stars".

If I had to reevaluate and make a prediction right now, I would still expect for year 4 of the Danny rebuild to culminate in winning 1 game in the NCAAT next year.
 
warak said:
lol, get the fuck out of here.

first of all, there was only 2 players that were ACC level when he got here in 14 and both were very flawed. He needed to turn over the entire roster...just not going to live up to any of this.
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In hindsight I know that looks unrealistic but there was quite a bit of optimism when Manning was hired.
 
CreamyGoodness said:
Nope. Not saying there's not one, just don't feel like looking around. I'd be curious to see Va tech before and since Buzz.

I based my projections on being a "historically competitive" basketball program, in a P5 conference, that has no reason to remain in the cellar.
Click to expand...

I'll save you the time, there aren't.

Williams RPI's:

Year 1: 222
Year 2: 80
Year 3: 45
 
I'd expect a traditionally solid program that had a history of making the NCAA on a pretty regular basis, not to go 7 (is that what it is now?) years without not only making the NCAA, but even the NIT. We're behind the 8 ball in football in a lot of ways, in basketball, although we may have things working against us like in football it's to a much lesser extent and there's no real excuse for us not being pretty good most years.
 
CreamyGoodness said:
14 wins in 2014 - top 75 RPI - Be a competent P5 basketball program. Begin rebuilding roster and implementing system
16 wins in 2015 - top 50 RPI - no postseason but noticeable improvement. Establish a system and improve recruiting
18 wins in 2016 - top 30 RPI - NCAAT first round
20 wins in 2017 - top 25 RPI - NCAAT second round

That would be my trajectory if you asked me at the beginning of Danny's first year what should be expected.
Click to expand...

Not with the talent we had.
 
RChildress107 said:
Can you find me an example of a coach that has met those expectations after taking over a ~125 Kenpom team or worse?

I'd even settle for ~90 or worse. If those are achievable expectations I imagine some coach out there has achieved them.
Click to expand...

Lon Kruger @ Oklahoma had a similar improvement -

2011 - Jeff Capel - 144
2012 - Lon Kruger - 105
2013 - Lon Kruger - 51
2014 - Lon Kruger - 30
2015 - Lon Kruger - 11
2016 - Lon Kruger - 10

They've had tough year so far, but some steady improvement over his first five seasons.
 
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