Anyone know how often we have covered on the road under Manning?
I don't know those exact answers, but I did some research this morning on the 20 game losing streak. These are based on the win expectancy from KP at the start of each game (so not the final KP ranking, but at the start of each game). These are the percentages each year that we would go winless.
2015: 9.7% chance to go winless
2016: 22.1% chance to go winless
2017: 61.5% to go winless (through two games)
In total: 1.33% chance over 20 games to go winless
The 1.33% number is also much higher than what it would be if you took each game into consideration. In at least 5 of those we had a greater than 50% chance to win the game at one point in the second half. Last year against Pitt we opened with a 16% chance to win, and with 32 seconds left we had an 80.7% chance to win. Under Manning we have outperformed what is expected of us on the road from a Vegas standpoint, we just haven't won any games (which sounds really weird).
Our expected W/L record based on the odds would be 5-15. It's quite a statistical anomaly that we have managed to not win a single one.
During 7 of those games over the past 20 we have lost by 5 or less or gone into OT, so I know we covered those games. I would guess we have covered slightly more than 50%.
This is the first time since we beat VPI in 2014 that we have been favored on the road against a conference team. The next closest was in 2015 against FSU (lost in double overtime) when we opened at a 40.7% chance.