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Republicans for POTUS, 2016 Edition

Scott Walker is currently in Philly, eating cheesesteaks and talking baseball. Just thought I'd share since it popped up on my Twitter.
 
What do people make of Trump's lead in the GOP polls combined with his extremely high name recognition?

I keep seeing comparisons on FB to Cain and Perry leading 4 years ago, but I don't think it's an apt comparison given how well-known Trump is. People who lead the polls early on but aren't well known fall back because their views become mainstream and people are like WTF. With Trump people know what his views are and the more he talks about them the more his lead seems to grow. He's not going to see decreasing votes due to his views becoming more mainstream and known like past early leaders have.

I'm not saying he's going to win the GOP nomination but I don't think he flames out in the same way Cain flamed out (or for the same reasons).
 
GOP has been steadily lurching right since 1992 (HW vs Buchanan vs Perot) and it started to accelerate in 2008. Trump's all over the map, but he's playing directly to the Palin/Buchanan wing of the party. Weren't enough of them for Buchanan in '92 or '96, but they won't desert Trump as either the GOP or an independent. GOP is especially hosed if Trump goes third party and their nominee is Cruz, Carson, Huckabee, Santorum, or Huckabee. Would split the conservative vote (largest GOP bloc) equally and HRC wins in a landslide. Tough to tell if the dividing line would be Perry or Walker for some swing back toward the GOP. Another loud, rude NE blowhard like Christie doesn't help much vs Trump. Romney might have worked, but he's another out of touch rich guy. Think Kasich, Paul, or Rubio match up best with Hillary, but probably comes down to Jeb or Walker. Populists go with Trump and Jeb is the safer pick.

Trump would take more votes from Jeb than HRC in a three way race. If Perot got 19% of the vote and Wallace got 13% of the vote, doesn't seem far fetched to believe Trump gets 15% of the vote. Virtually none coming from Dems, so at least 70% of Trump's totally comes straight out of the GOP. Per the 538 chart, that's roughly a 90% Dem win.
 
Donald Trump is going to war with Scott Walker after being called 'DumbDumb' by one of his supporters

"Wisconsin's doing terribly. First of all, it's in turmoil. The roads are a disaster because they don't have any money to rebuild them. They're borrowing money like crazy," he said. "I wrote this stuff all down, although I don't need it because I have a really good memory — but they projected a $1 billion surplus and it turns out to be a deficit of $2.2 billion. And money all over the place. The schools are a disaster, and they're fighting like crazy because there's no money for the schools. The hospitals and education is a disaster."
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hahaha
 
God I love Donald Trump's "ready, fire, aim" approach.
 
ONW said:
"Cohen added that there is no such thing, legally, as a man raping his wife. “You cannot rape your spouse,” he said. There’s very clear case law.”"

Is this true?
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This was the Notorious RBG's main point when arguing against "traditional" marriage in the recent SCOTUS case.

Wakelaw2006 said:
2002ish, if I recall correctly - he publicly denied the rumor. She was head of some state agency (don't remember which one though) - it was all over Tallahassee. Around the same time, his daughter was arrested for illegally buying some kind of prescription drug and then got caught with drugs while in rehab.
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This was at the same time that Jeb! was pushing for anybody that received government assisted housing to undergo drug testing. It was a mini-controversy because his own daughter would have failed the drug test despite living in government housing (the Governor's mansion).
 
FuckmouthedRube said:
GOP has been steadily lurching right since 1992 (HW vs Buchanan vs Perot) and it started to accelerate in 2008. Trump's all over the map, but he's playing directly to the Palin/Buchanan wing of the party. Weren't enough of them for Buchanan in '92 or '96, but they won't desert Trump as either the GOP or an independent. GOP is especially hosed if Trump goes third party and their nominee is Cruz, Carson, Huckabee, Santorum, or Huckabee. Would split the conservative vote (largest GOP bloc) equally and HRC wins in a landslide. Tough to tell if the dividing line would be Perry or Walker for some swing back toward the GOP. Another loud, rude NE blowhard like Christie doesn't help much vs Trump. Romney might have worked, but he's another out of touch rich guy. Think Kasich, Paul, or Rubio match up best with Hillary, but probably comes down to Jeb or Walker. Populists go with Trump and Jeb is the safer pick.

Trump would take more votes from Jeb than HRC in a three way race. If Perot got 19% of the vote and Wallace got 13% of the vote, doesn't seem far fetched to believe Trump gets 15% of the vote. Virtually none coming from Dems, so at least 70% of Trump's totally comes straight out of the GOP. Per the 538 chart, that's roughly a 90% Dem win.
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A couple of questions here:

Does the fact that Jeb has been out of politics since 02 hurt him at all?

If Trump flames out (50/50 IMHO), do his supporters just stay home and be angry again since there in no chance Carson, Cruz, etc of the crew above gets the nod? If he is serious about Palin, does this help or hurt him?
 
Jeb! left office in 2007 and I think it hurts him multiple ways: he hasn't had direct experience with big current issues in real-time, he never held office after social media exploded, and he's rusty. Santorum and Huckabee are still fighting marriage equality and look like hapless Japanese soldiers found on remote South Pacific Islands in the '50s. Jeb's not as awkward as Mitt, but he doesn't know how to respond to Trump and ends up looking like a wus. He needs to give Trump some shit during the debates.

Palin destroys any chance of Trump running as the GOP nominee. As much as the Tea Party hates McCain and Mitt, they can't get one of their own to the top of the GOP ticket, let alone two. Tea Party base would turn out in droves for a Trump/Palin third party ticket, but have zero explanation for the silent majority bs when their dream ticket pulls in less than 20% nationally. Bad for Trump, bad for Palin, the long awaited disastrous end of the Tea Party, but good for the GOP in the medium term.
 
Jeb, 1st half of 2015, super pac money $104 mil

Mitt, 1st half of 2011, super pac money $13 mil


In four years, holy fuck.
 
"Washington (CNN)Blindsiding fellow Republicans and House GOP leaders, a conservative North Carolina congressman launched an effort on Tuesday to oust House Speaker John Boehner.

Rep. Mark Meadows, who was among the group of House Republicans who voted against re-electing Boehner in January, filed a resolution to strip Boehner of his post as House speaker. It doesn't specify who would replace him."

Guess Boehner won't be Trump's VP.
 
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Gonna need Scott Walker's response to this allegation.
 
Thoughts on Rand Paul's flat tax? Seems like an idea that is close to what many people have floated on here (albeit higher than 14.5%). But income under $50,000 isn't taxed. EITC is retained for low income workers. Only deductions retained are charitable giving and mortgage interest deduction. Lowers the corporate rate to 14.5 as well, but taxes on capital gains are the same as any other income. I kind of like it. I probably would increase the number by a few points, and then have a super wealthy bracket (income over $10,000,000 or something like that) that had a higher rate. But essentially have a flat tax that starts above the poverty line, and simplify everything.

https://www.randpaul.com/issue/taxes

I think it will play in an election, and I think tax reform is a much needed change. THoughts from the Tunnels?
 
Looks nice but that "steroid injection" depends on corporations creating jobs in the U.S. instead of just pocketing the tax savings or creating jobs overseas. Without that, there is a massive deficit.
 
Do you seriously think a person who makes a million dollars a year should pay the same tax rate as a person who makes $50,001/yr?
 
I'd be fine with it if the $100MM group had like...a 50+% tax rate.
 
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