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Thoughts on the Kentucky Derby -California Chrome's future

Schwabber89 said:
RJ: Of the longer shots (say 20:1 or higher) which couple of horses do you think offer the most value at the current odds? Thanks. Always appreciate your insight on the Derby.
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Not RJ, and I haven't been following this nearly as long, but of the long shots, I think Medal Count has an outside shot. I think the better value is in the 15-1 group.

Ride on Curlin and Samraat will both be in my exotics

I'm torn on General A Rod, Wildcat Red, and Tapiture, but I think they are decent plays as well...

I need look a little closer at Chitu and Candy Boy....



ETA - if I were personally placing a bet on a long shot it would be ROC and Wildcat Red
 
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Here are the entries for Saturday.

http://www.churchilldowns.com/racin...JkRBVEU9MDUvMDMvMjAxNCZTVFlMRT1DRA==&iframe=1

The Pick 4 may be a Daily Double. Wise Dan will be 2/5 in the Woodford (the 10th race-right before the Derby). Wise Dan is one of the greatest horses ever. For $18 you could go 6x6xWise Dan x California Chrome. Hell for $33 you could go All x 6 x WD X CC

It might be worth trying a Pick 5. To me it looks like there are two singles.
 
If Chitu can rate, he might be tough. He's very lightly raced.
 
Hey RJ, tvg is offering locked in odds of 4-1 on CC....has to be a Win bet, and has to be placed tomorrow (5/2/14) between 9-10 pacific time. Max $25....
 
RJKarl said:
The Pick 4 may be a Daily Double. Wise Dan will be 2/5 in the Woodford (the 10th race-right before the Derby). Wise Dan is one of the greatest horses ever. For $18 you could go 6x6xWise Dan x California Chrome. Hell for $33 you could go All x 6 x WD X CC
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I like this a lot. I will likely do the 4-1 locked odds on Chrome, the pick 4 and a couple of exactas/tris.

I'm comfortable with rolling Wise Dan alone, but I will probably add a couple in with Chrome...maybe something like this:

6X6XWise Dan/Chrome, Danza, ROC


Just need to figure out who I want with Chrome.....Danza, ROC, Wicked, Intense Holiday I think are my favorites to sneak in if Chrime stumbles....hell there are a lot of horses I could see making pushes. Gonna have to crack a beer Saturday morning and get to researching haha

Really appreciate the info RJ, and I'm thankful you got me into this....followed most of the preps this year, now I just need to figure out how to follow the 2 year olds. I'd really love to catch some of these horses at Del Mar.
 
6x6xWDx 3 = $54 @ $0.50

If you want to go for the cheese 6x5xWD by your three+Chitu=$60

I have a meeting about 9 AM my time. I'll be back by about 11 AM, but then have to go out again around 2 PM. I'll try to get the form after my first meeting. I like the physical form versus the online one, because you can see entire races at once and see articles.

Remember if you think Chrome is going to win, the exacta may not pay more than $30-60. thus figure out if they pay enough versus win bets. This year is different than others in that there is a strong favorite.

Right now, I'm leaning towards a Pick 5 and Pick 6 with a WP in the Derby (place may pay close what win does due to the size of the field) and may a couple of exactas. I may do a small box that leaves Chrome just in case he gets a horrible trip.

The only ways I see him losing is a bad trip or a terrible ride. In his last two races, he got stronger as the races got longer but got geared down rally early. His speed numbers could easily be 5-15 points better in each race.
 
Got busy at work and missed the 4-1 locked odds.....dammit.
 
Just put in a 6x6x1x1 dont let me down sport i know very little about!

But seriously i appreciate the info guys
 
Here are two bets I will make tomorrow:

$20 WP on California Chrome

$0.50 Pick 4 :

2/3/5/6/7/8/10/11 with 2/3/4/10/11 with 1 with 5
 
Rj if that pick 4 hits (say 5-1 odds win girst 2 races) what does that pay at $.5?
 
5-1 /5-1 / Wise Dan (2/5)/CA Chrome (2-1) - $150

But this depends on how the odds spread in the first two races. The horse that kills this price isn't California Chrome. It's Wise Dan in the in the 10th race. He will be singled by 70% of the bettors.
 
Here is a $16 Pick 5 ($0.50 bet) :

3/5/6/8 with 2/3/6/7/8/10/11 with 10 with 1 with 5
 
Gotta go with Vicar's in Trouble--Rosie Napravnik as first woman jock to win the Derby
 
The horse would also be the first horse since dosage was created to win with 5.0. I love Rosie, but the horse can't get the distance.
 
Exactas are tough today as they won't pay much if Chrome win and any of the other top 5 come second.

I might a $1 tri ky with California Chrome over Danza/Smaraat/Chitu/Intense Holiday and Wicked Strong

If you want to take a stand against Chrome you could bet those five horses in a $1 exacta box for $20.

If you want to bet a long shot, bet Chitu across the board.
 
Speed held up in the first race at Churchill and they went quite quickly- 45 and change and 1:09.

I may not do many exactas. Yesterday I was very surprised that the Oaks exacta paid $21.80.
 
This track is blisteringly fast. A maiden race just went 21.4 44 and change and 6 furlongs in 1:08 4/5. That's insanely fast for a second time out maiden. Plus he was under wraps. Victor Esponosa (CA Chrome) was on this horse.

Secretariat's record may be in doubt.
 
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