1. We are actually better than a bubble team but our horrible record in close games, especially against top 50 teams, has left us on the bubble. I know some of you think this is a systemic issue with Manning's coaching that is unlikely to be corrected next year but I find that concern to be vastly overstated. More likely it's a result of inexperience, poor wing defense, and bad luck.
2. Assuming Chaundee is an average defender and performs to his recruiting rank, our defense should improve dramatically without any loss to our perimeter offense (by Chaundee replacing some of Arians' and Wilbekin's minutes.
3. The loss of Collins shouldn't hurt our interior defense too badly. Moore is a capable post defender with some easily correctable habits that keep him from being a dominant post defender. Given the improvement Collins made on that end of the floor, especially with regards to foul trouble, I would hope Manning could make similar progress with Moore in an expanded role. Dinos has improved his defense dramatically and is somewhere near replacement level on that end. SJM and hopefully Sarr can at least provide big bodies down low.
4. The key question will be the offense. Collins is the focal point and the biggest reason we have a top 10 offense. We don't have anyone who can come close to replacing his production in the post. However, we will have a very good, experienced backcourt that can shoot. Depending on how college ready Chaundee is, we will have four perimeter players who can create their own shot (starters + Childress). Also Dinos and Moore each have things they can contibute to an offense which should keep defenses honest while our offense runs through our guards. We won't have Collins as a safety valve but I trust that Manning can put together a top 30 offense out of the pieces we have next year.