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Wake Forest Football / Military Bowl Thread

Deacsfan27 said:
This isn't true, no matter how many times you want to say it.

Pilchard's post from earlier this season:
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Yeah, actually that is more or less how they do it. What do you think they are doing doofus?

Nvm, the quoted post wasn't showing up for some reason, weird.
 
WFcatamount22 said:
Yeah, actually that is more or less how they do it. What do you think they are doing doofus?
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Setting the line so they maximize money, not necessarily so it gets 50/50 on each side. The latter may be a byproduct of the former, but if they think they can get the general public to bet on a team because they are a "big name" they will do that.

I bet Wake gets a ton of action if the spread opens at -5 tomorrow night, and most statistical websites think Wake will win by 5. That will likely go up to 7-8 in a hurry, in which case the sharks will take UNC-G.

They don't care about even money on each side, they care about winning the most money possible period.
 
BudatWake said:
Shows you have no idea what a line in Vegas is all about. All they care about is getting the money split 50-50. They are thinking they have to give 13 points to get Wake fans to bet. Probably about right, but it really is not about what is going on on the field.
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Just amazes me how this keeps coming up. Vegas does not seek to split the action 50/50. They care about one thing: making money, and they LOVE it when all of the PUBLIC money is on one side, but the professional gamblers (e.g., Billy Walters) are on the other; that's why you will see games where 75% of the action is on one side, yet the line doesn't move or even moves to accept more action on that side. An example of that was the Wake at Duke game this September, the game opened at Duke minus 6.5 and the vast majority of the action was on Duke (most people on this Board liked Duke to crush WF), but the line kept dropping. Ultimately, the line went down to as low as 5. Vegas made a killing (as did the professional bettors that loved WF).
 
Deacsfan27 said:
Setting the line so they maximize money, not necessarily so it gets 50/50 on each side. The latter may be a byproduct of the former, but if they think they can get the general public to bet on a team because they are a "big name" they will do that.

I bet Wake gets a ton of action if the spread opens at -5 tomorrow night, and most statistical websites think Wake will win by 5. That will likely go up to 7-8 in a hurry, in which case the sharks will take UNC-G.

They don't care about even money on each side, they care about winning the most money possible period.
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Interesting I never knew that. Seems a little bit reckless on their side to be running with 60% of the money on one side. IF they are covering it works though I guess.
 
WFcatamount22 said:
Interesting I never knew that. Seems a little bit reckless on their side to be running with 60% of the money on one side. IF they are covering it works though I guess.
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Not if the line they set to begin with wasn't what they really think the line should be.

There are tall buildings in Vegas for a reason.
 
Pilchard said:
Just amazes me how this keeps coming up. Vegas does not seek to split the action 50/50. They care about one thing: making money, and they LOVE it when all of the PUBLIC money is on one side, but the professional gamblers (e.g., Billy Walters) are on the other; that's why you will see games where 75% of the action is on one side, yet the line doesn't move or even moves to accept more action on that side. An example of that was the Wake at Duke game this September, the game opened at Duke minus 6.5 and the vast majority of the action was on Duke (most people on this Board liked Duke to crush WF), but the line kept dropping. Ultimately, the line went down to as low as 5. Vegas made a killing (as did the professional bettors that loved WF).
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They also could stand to lose a lot of money that way, instead of just taking guaranteed money over a long course of time by setting it at 50-50. Seems to me they would be better off not gambling (shocking) and taking the easy money.
 
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Deacsfan27 said:
Setting the line so they maximize money, not necessarily so it gets 50/50 on each side. The latter may be a byproduct of the former, but if they think they can get the general public to bet on a team because they are a "big name" they will do that.

I bet Wake gets a ton of action if the spread opens at -5 tomorrow night, and most statistical websites think Wake will win by 5. That will likely go up to 7-8 in a hurry, in which case the sharks will take UNC-G.

They don't care about even money on each side, they care about winning the most money possible period.
Click to expand...


As you all know, when you place a straight wager on the pointspread of a football or basketball game, you need to risk $110 to win $100. The $10 difference between risk and payout is known as the juice, or the vigorish, or “vig” and is the reason sportsbooks are in business. Sportsbooks essentially act as a broker between you and another player who wants to bet on the other team and collects the small commission as compensation for brokering the deal and handling the transfer of funds between the two of you. This is important to understand, because it leads me to the biggest misconception in sports wagering. The pointspread is not the handicapper’s predicted margin-of-victory, but it is in fact the handicapper’s prediction of what number will be required to split the wagering evenly on both teams. Understanding that little tid-bit is the first step towards taking advantage of the numbers.

This from TheSpread.com
 
Pilchard said:
There have been plenty of 13+ point dogs that have won games straight up this year. That said, Temple is and should be expected to win. Will be surprised if the game is not close.
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What percentage of 13+ dogs have won this season?
 
PhDeac said:
What percentage of 13+ dogs have won this season?
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Extremely low because that counts all of the 30+ point dogs that never win. The win% of 13 point favorites is 88.49%.
 
Oh joy, this debate again.

But to answer the question, 87.5% of 13+ point faves won the game. That was the lowest rate in many, many years.

There haven't been many 13+ faves in bowl season but since '05 those teams are 18-5, or 78.3% (losers: Oklahoma over 'Bama '14 Sugar, UCF over Baylor '14 Cotton, Texas Tech over Az State '13 Holiday, Louisville over Florida '13 Sugar, SMU over Fresno '12 Hawaii). So more upsets, which isn't a big surprise
 
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I know our players and coaches don't feel that they have a 90 percent chance of losing.
 
We're gonna win, so you puddin pants cowards need to cut the shit.
 
Betting every 10+ point dog in bowl season on the ML over the past 11 seasons would've been extremely profitable.

Just sayin'
 
DownEastDeac said:
As you all know, when you place a straight wager on the pointspread of a football or basketball game, you need to risk $110 to win $100. The $10 difference between risk and payout is known as the juice, or the vigorish, or “vig” and is the reason sportsbooks are in business. Sportsbooks essentially act as a broker between you and another player who wants to bet on the other team and collects the small commission as compensation for brokering the deal and handling the transfer of funds between the two of you. This is important to understand, because it leads me to the biggest misconception in sports wagering. The pointspread is not the handicapper’s predicted margin-of-victory, but it is in fact the handicapper’s prediction of what number will be required to split the wagering evenly on both teams. Understanding that little tid-bit is the first step towards taking advantage of the numbers.

This from TheSpread.com
Click to expand...

Yes that's exactly how it works they want the money split - the one guy comes in and quotes from the book that's been debunked as not credible pure fiction. Why do these guys complicate things when everyone knows we how it works.
 
Pilchard said:
Just amazes me how this keeps coming up. Vegas does not seek to split the action 50/50. They care about one thing: making money, and they LOVE it when all of the PUBLIC money is on one side, but the professional gamblers (e.g., Billy Walters) are on the other; that's why you will see games where 75% of the action is on one side, yet the line doesn't move or even moves to accept more action on that side. An example of that was the Wake at Duke game this September, the game opened at Duke minus 6.5 and the vast majority of the action was on Duke (most people on this Board liked Duke to crush WF), but the line kept dropping. Ultimately, the line went down to as low as 5. Vegas made a killing (as did the professional bettors that loved WF).
Click to expand...

All they care about is splitting the money. They set the line at 14 or whatever hoping to do that. It's not complicated.
 
Don't let anyone tell you different. This is how it works. Guys who write fiction saying different are mistaken.

Sometimes they guess wrong and 60% goes to be one side but their goal is 50/50 on both sides. When that happens the house always wins so why would they want to do anything different.

They can't pick the games any better than anyone else.
 
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