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WSJ on Manning Hire and [Redacted]

Rafi said:
There is a decent paper on this from the 2015 Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. The take home is that the chance of winning increases with earlier fouling, and that applies even more in NCAA than NBA games. The old school move is to "play good D and hope for the best," but the numbers just don't point to that being a winning strategy.

Their results show: "Using the techniques above, we can determine that for NCAA basketball, a team behind p points should foul when there are roughly t = 10.73 + 16.15 p seconds remaining." Their model uses a trip to the free throw line as an estimated 1.45 points, which I think would have been quite lower for UNC given who they had on the floor and being in the bonus. Here's the paper, if you're interested http://www.caam.rice.edu/~fhk2/basketballendgame.pdf
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It still would make it a two possession game versus a less than 50% they make the FG.
 
PhDeac said:
That's how much people loved Wellman then.
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If we were getting the same results in football and men's basketball now as we were then, the majority still would. Unfortunately we fell off a cliff and it is difficult to understand for many why the decisions that Wellman made after that time were made. Then Wellman fed the fan base a complete line of BS and has never answered for any of it. Hard to understand other than the people who matter must be satisfied with the job he has done.
 
Of course our demise has coincided with ACC expansion..the timing of all this really couldn't be worse for Wake. I fear our best days are behind us in hoops 😥
 
Maybe this latest round of expansion.

Adding basketball powerhouses Miami, VT and BC should not have hurt Wake.

And it's not like we need to be top 6 in the conference to make the tourney. .500 should suffice more often than not, with all the quality wins we can pick up
 
Expansion did not cause us to hire [Redacted]. If anything, expansion should have provided us more money to hire a coach with an actual record of postseason season, or really any success.
 
The combo of a shit hire in [] and then the increased level of competition from Pitt. Syracuse. UL. ND has just made the issues that much worse. Those are four legit hoops programs.
 
Strickland33 said:
FIFY

Plenty of fans on here have had decent coaching insight and you quote a Rafi post. LOL
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I apologize if that comment came across as. BRoad spectrum. I was just overwhelmed by the foolishness of that post. Sorry if I came across otherwise.


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wsc8521s said:
Maybe this latest round of expansion.

Adding basketball powerhouses Miami, VT and BC should not have hurt Wake.

And it's not like we need to be top 6 in the conference to make the tourney. .500 should suffice more often than not, with all the quality wins we can pick up
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True enough, but two of these three teams have demonstrably better coaches than Wake.
 
Coaching has always been the problem. Not expansion.

And when only 6 (or maybe 5?) outta 15 teams get left at home for the tourney, I'm not sure adding ND/Loui/cuse/Pitt is much of a negative. Being top 60% of our conference seems doable for Wake Forest
 
wsc8521s said:
Coaching has always been the problem. Not expansion.

And when only 6 (or maybe 5?) outta 15 teams get left at home for the tourney, I'm not sure adding ND/Loui/cuse/Pitt is much of a negative. Being top 60% of our conference seems doable for Wake Forest
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I sure hope so..I feel like we are doomed to be the basement for life now. Too many years of suffering..need some cause for optimism
 
Wes Miller up to 5 straight conference road wins. (that's more than we've had in 7 years COMBINED). He will enter the conference tournament in first (2nd time in his 4 years). Even if they don't win the tournament, he'll likely be getting a better job than ours in April. We missed our window.

Once in a lifetime opportunity to have a basketball coaching prodigy grow up before our eyes and have now missed that chance. Some guy from California (RJKarl) understandably wouldn't get it by looking a the numbers before now. But everyone who spoke to humans (not Wellman) around WF games the last 20 years watched it coming from a mile away. Too bad. He could have rescued us from the ditch Ron has thrown us in. But far worse, he was the one chance we had at a multi-decade run. This one will hurt in 2035.
 
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Maybe Miller can get a mid-major job. That's about it coming from UNCG. McCaffrey went to Siena and Dement when to SMU when they were in CUSA. If Wes succeeds at a mid-major job, he'll certainly be on Wake's radar. Is ECU ready to give up on Jeff Lebo yet?
 
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There are several mid-major jobs better than Wake. He will definitely be on our radar. But like Tyler Hansbrough, Steph Curry and so many more examples, when he enters the slow moving WF radar, he'll be gone.
 
PhDeac said:
Maybe Miller can get a mid-major job. That's about it coming from UNCG. McCaffrey went to Siena and Dement when to SMU when they were in CUSA. If Wes succeeds at a mid-major job, he'll certainly be on Wake's radar. Is ECU ready to give up on Jeff Lebo yet?
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Lebo on leave from the Pirates for hip surgery. Lot of folks seem to hope he recovers well but never coaches them again. So could be a possibility....
 
donaldross said:
There are several mid-major jobs better than Wake. He will definitely be on our radar. But like Tyler Hansbrough, Steph Curry and so many more examples, when he enters the slow moving WF radar, he'll be gone.
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That is not true by any measure. Please list 3 jobs at the mid-major level that the avg coach would chose over Wake assuming he was offered both jobs. There may be zero. If Marshall left Wichita & a coach had to make that choice, do you believe someone would go coach in the Valley?
 
Wes Miller will go to a mid major.

That team will make the NCAA and pull off a first round upset over a big name school.

And that will make him too valuable for WF and we will not hire him.
 
Pat Kelsey is the man for the job. Could be the next Dave Odom: good assistant here, good recruiter( Odom recruited Johnstone, Rogers, Helms, and Morgan; Kelsey recruited James Johnson and Travis McKee). And he has been more successful at Winthrop than Odom was at ECU.
 
Gonzaga, St Mary's, Wichita State, UNLV, New Mexico, BYU, Valpo, Tulsa, SMU, Cincy, UCONN, Memphis. That's 12 better than ours I can think of with our stadium and AD disaster off the top of my head.
 
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