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Danny Manning Credibility Watch

Childress and Wilbekin go for 27 points on over 40% shooting and folks are still beating the "play our best players more" drum?
 
DCDeac said:
Childress and Wilbekin go for 27 points on over 40% shooting and folks are still beating the "play our best players more" drum?
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Yes. Crawford had 22 points midway through the 2nd half.
 
The odds are still better than we get 8 wins in conference than 6 wins since the expectancy is at 7.18.

The "easiest" route to 7 ACC wins is:

Georgia Tech (87%)
@ Boston College (72%)
N.C. State (72%)
Pittsburgh (66%)
Miami (60%)
N.C. State (46%)

The total win expectancy there is 4 wins, so Wake would need to get two of the following to get to 7 if they do what is "expected":

@ Syracuse (40%)
Louisville (37%)
Duke (36%)
@ Virginia Tech (36%)
@ Notre Dame (26%)
@ Clemson (25%)
@ Duke (15%)

That expected win total comes out to 2.15 wins there. I think it would be a pretty close bet, and I certainly wouldn't offer 100-1 odds if I'm BKF. If anything RChildress should be offering slight odds based on these numbers, but a straight up bet is pretty fair all-around. If Wake only won the games that KP has a better than 50% chance in then 6 wins would be our conference total. The Clemson game hurt the 7 wins chance a lot because we would be at 2 wins already, and also gained .51 of win expectancy, putting our expected conference total at 7.69 instead of 7.18.
 
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RChildress107 said:
I'd put $200 on 100-1 odds but figured you probably wouldn't want to risk 20 grand.
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Tell ya what I will do, Childress. If WF goes 7-11 or better in the ACC this year I will give you $100. If they don't, you don't have to give me anything....but you will agree to accept a 6-month posting ban on the OG boards, beginning on March 5th, the day after the last game of the regular season.

Or, for smallbigtail, I will gladly put up that grand....if he wants to match it with a grand of his own. Of course, on a wager of that size the money would have to be posted in advance.

If KenPom thinks WF is going to have 7.18 ACC regular season wins, why in hell would anyone think they should get 100 to 1 odds to wager that they would get 7 wins?
 
bobknightfan said:
Tell ya what I will do, Childress. If WF goes 7-11 or better in the ACC this year I will give you $100. If they don't, you don't have to give me anything....but you will agree to accept a 6-month posting ban on the OG boards, beginning on March 5th, the day after the last game of the regular season.

Or, for smallbigtail, I will gladly put up that grand....if he wants to match it with a grand of his own. Of course, on a wager of that size the money would have to be posted in advance.

If KenPom thinks WF is going to have 7.18 ACC regular season wins, why in hell would anyone think they should get 100 to 1 odds to wager that they would get 7 wins?
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It probably had to do with your insistence that:

"This team doesn't have a chance in hell of going 7-11 in the ACC this year."
 
RChildress107 said:
So you measure progress by our combination of bad losses and quality wins? Still seems kind of arbitrary and schedule dependent but at least it's a standard.

What counts as a quality win?
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Of course it's arbitrary. It's sports fandom, not science.

Our Kenpom is higher because we are actually winning against bad teams and are losing by less to good teams. The first should be a given and the second is the definition of a moral victory. That is not satisfying, and it is understandable why people aren't overwhelmed with the progress. Hopefully out Kenpom performance translates to something meaningful because it is not meaningful on its own.
 
bobknightfan said:
Tell ya what I will do, Childress. If WF goes 7-11 or better in the ACC this year I will give you $100. If they don't, you don't have to give me anything....but you will agree to accept a 6-month posting ban on the OG boards, beginning on March 5th, the day after the last game of the regular season.

Or, for smallbigtail, I will gladly put up that grand....if he wants to match it with a grand of his own. Of course, on a wager of that size the money would have to be posted in advance.

If KenPom thinks WF is going to have 7.18 ACC regular season wins, why in hell would anyone think they should get 100 to 1 odds to wager that they would get 7 wins?
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How about $150 to a charity of my choice?
 
Deacsfan27 said:
It probably had to do with your insistence that:

"This team doesn't have a chance in hell of going 7-11 in the ACC this year."
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In my opinion, they don't have a chance in hell of doing it....but that's no reason for making a stupid 100 to 1 wager on something that you just said that I should be getting slight odds on.
 
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