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Offical Sports Betting Thread

Gonna take a deep dive tomorrow. Really having a good year overall. Adding in late picks this week paid off but mainly because Memphis and wake both had absurd trends on game day the way I expected so they just grew in value.
 
Trying to figure out if there is any value in some of these home college dogs this week...

Michigan +1 vs ND
Temple +10.5 vs UCF
Louisville +3.5 vs UVA
Mich St +6.5 vs Penn St
TCU +1 vs Texas
Kansas St +23.5 vs OU
Houston +14 vs SMU
Colorado +13.5 vs USC
UCLA +3.5 vs Az St

Feels like some of those dogs can (and will) win straight up.

Also trying to figure out an angle on Wiscy/OSU & Auburn/LSU... Feels like Ohio State and/or LSU are due for a dud performance at some point, but not sure I want to bet on that happening at home this week in "big" games.
 
Really sharp lines this week IMO. Best lines I've spotted and already taken:

Penn State @ Michigan (Even)
Texas Tech (-4) @ Kansas
Memphis (-10.5) @ Tulsa
FIU (-2.5) @ Middle Tennessee State
Miami (+6) @ Pittsburgh
Illinois (+10) @ Purdue

All over road teams again this week I guess - although it paid off heavily last week.
 
The Miami and Memphis lines are both way off the metrics' take. I don't quite get the Memphis one obviously Miami is coming off a dud and public perception on them is at an all-time low.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Really sharp lines this week IMO. Best lines I've spotted and already taken:

Penn State @ Michigan (Even)
Texas Tech (-4) @ Kansas
Memphis (-10.5) @ Tulsa
FIU (-2.5) @ Middle Tennessee State
Miami (+6) @ Pittsburgh
Illinois (+10) @ Purdue

All over road teams again this week I guess - although it paid off heavily last week.
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I assume you mean ND over Michigan? Because no way did you get Penn State (pick'em) over Mich State.
 
Purdue -9.5 vs Ill [always go against the road dog who just won as a double digit dog]
Wash St + 14 vs Oregon
UVa -3.5 @ Louisville
SD State -13 @ UNLV
Memphis -10.5 @ Tulsa
Navy -4 vs Tulane
Michigan +1 vs ND

Indy -5.5 vs Denver
Carolina +6 vs SF & under 41
 
More to come (probably), but these are the first 3 bets I took this week.

Ohio State -14.5 over Wisconsin
Temple +10.5 over UCF
Notre Dame -1 over Michigan
 
Pretty sure the OSU line opened at 14 or 14.5. There have been several this year that have moved 3+ points in OSU's favor. I kind of like Wisconsin to bounce back and cover for some reason.
 
Notre Dame covering -1 seems like more of a no-brainer than OSU covering -14.5. Did Wisconsin's QB get hurt in the Illinois loss?
 
Minnesota Vikings tonight in my $500 suicide pool [-16] over Redskins. 11 entries left
 
BiffTannen said:
Yeah, everyone is on tOSU this week.
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They are #1 in everyone’s power rankings and my line is closer to -17... Not a look ahead spot for the Buckeyes, who should be focused here.

It’s a spot where the sharps and the public are largely on the same side, which worries me... But it’s still a play for me.

OSU has been the best team in the country this year, and I’m not sure it has been even close.

You can always count on them to step on their dicks at some point against a shitty opponent, but I don’t see that this week.
 
I like the line a lot, but OSU has been dominant this season ATS. One of four teams that is 6-1 ATS (along with Auburn SMU and Louisiana) and an average MOV of 41.

I'm not going to touch that game but I'd probably take OSU and the points. Can easily see a 38-17 type game.
 
Mentioned this in passing but why is the Memphis line only 10.5? I don't see any injuries for them and other than coming off a huge win at home over a good Tulane team don't understand this one at all.

I have the line at 20. SP+ has it at 18.5 and Sagarin has it at 14.
 
Random question but Wake closed as a favorite in their first six games of the year, that's gotta be the first time that's ever happened in Wake history right? Also opened as a favorite against FSU before heavy money came in on the Noles the last 24 hours before kickoff (FSU went off as a three point favorite).
 
I'm getting murdered this week. Large part due to the WS. I lost the first and then decided to double down on the Astros. OUch.
 
harmoniousmonk said:
Baseball betting just seems like a bad idea all the way around.
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Unless you are betting on the Nats who are 10-2 in the post-season, and 18-2 going back to the end of the regular season. They are also 9-0 in the "lucky" blue jerseys. Major ROI for those that are blindly taking the Nats.
 
Gotta be a volume bettor to bet baseball. Individual variance is just too extreme to make money with any consistency.
 
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