Win more than 8 games if you want a bigger bowl with a bigger opponent.
Omnibus Bowl Projections Thread - Belk Bowl
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DeacLaw05
Well-known member
Walking to the car after Saturday’s victory, my group was lamenting the fact that the schedule didn’t allow us an opportunity to kick U*NC’s asses this season.
We have missed many opportunities to settle scores with some teams. '07 vs Nebraska, Miami '08,'09','13, ULM, just to name some. So Carolina would thump us pretty good back in the day. I would love to pay them back. It would help with recruiting, too. The Sun Bowl would allow us to have a sombrero in the trophy case, give the players some good stories about going out west.
Georgia doesn't want to play us.
They haven't since 1979 when we beat them in our come-from-behind 'never, never, never, never, never give up' game between the hedges.
Alabama would be great..............
Of course, we'd have to have Steely Dan for the halftime show.
Learn to work the saxophone
I play just what I feel
Drink Scotch whiskey all night long
And die behind the wheel
They got a name for the winners in the world
I want a name when I lose
They call Alabama the Crimson Tide
Call me Deacon Blues
ericstratton
Well-known member
Walter Becker is dead now, so you have that going for you. The other guy (Donald Fagen?) still goes around calling himself Steely Dan. Maybe he gives a portion of the gate to Becker's estate or something. Anyway, Becker is a goner.
LilburnDeac
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I'd love to see Wake play in a bowl game (not necessarily this year but some year)
Georgia, Auburn, Alabama, Florida, Michigan, Ohio St, UCLA, USC (the real one), LSU, Oklahoma
Georgia, Auburn, Alabama, Florida, Michigan, Ohio St, UCLA, USC (the real one), LSU, Oklahoma
Not quite your list and it wasn't bowl games, but in the 70's, when we were everyone's homecoming game, we played at Penn State, Michigan, Oklahoma, Texas, Georgia
We didn't win any of those (except UGA), but we played in some pretty big stadiums against some pretty good teams
LilburnDeac
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I know. That's why I want to play them in a bowl game- because we would, at least in theory, be pretty evenly matched.
Next year......It's Happening
Your USC wish might happen in the Belk Bowl
We had a re-match with LSU in the '79 Tangerine Bowl. They got out to an early lead and we couldn't catch them. We lost 13-11 to them in Baton Rouge in '78. They brought Mike the Tiger out in his cage. They would stick the PA mic in the cage and then poke him with a stick. The roar got everybody's attention.
BarcaDeac
Well-known member
They said the real one
I’ve been taking a LONG look at the bowl selection process for ACC teams. It’s frustrating how complicated it is, and how difficult it can be to find some of the details. There is also some conflicting info out there. Here is what I found:
BOWL HIERARCHY FOR ACC TEAMS (simplified based on likely scenarios)
1. College Football Playoff
2. Orange
3. Citrus (**only if Orange Bowl takes a Big 10 team as the ACC’s opponent**)
4. Camping World
5. Tier 1 Bowl (Belk, Sun, Pinstripe, Taxslayer*)
6. Tier 1 Bowl (Belk, Sun, Pinstripe, Taxslayer*)
7. Tier 1 Bowl (Belk, Sun, Pinstripe, Taxslayer*)
8. Tier 1 Bowl (Belk, Sun, Pinstripe, Taxslayer*)
9. Military
10. Independence
11. Quick Lane
*Note: The Music City Bowl shares a slot with the Taxslayer Bowl. The thinking is that the Taxslayer Bowl will get first shot at an ACC team this year, but it still seems possible (albeit unlikely) that the Music City could take the Taxslayer’s spot.
DOES A TEAM’S RECORD MATTER?
I’ve seen some chatter on this board and on Twitter that some kind of “one-win rule” or “two-win rule” is broadly in effect for prioritizing bowl bids for ACC teams. I could be mistaken, but I think this is a myth. These rules were in effect in the Grobe era, but not anymore. Prioritization for bowls is now based largely on projections for tickets sales and perhaps television ratings. However, there are a few places where a team’s record still matters:
1. Teams with six or more wins are prioritized over teams with five wins. In fact, five win teams aren’t even subject to the ACC’s bowl tie-ins. They are basically free agents.
2. Teams are given “protection” based on their record against getting jumped by Notre Dame
3. There was info last year that 9-win teams (specifically) get priority over 6 and 7 win teams. I haven’t found that same info this year, but it wouldn’t surprise me if that was still in effect.
4. There is at least one article claiming that the Military, Independence and Quick Lane are now subject to one-win rule. Meaning that the Independence Bowl could not jump over the Military Bowl to take an 8-win team over a 6-win team.
BIGGEST REMAINING UNCERTAINTIES
How many ACC teams will the CFP take?
Which remaining teams (FSU, GT, Duke) will become bowl eligible?
Will Notre Dame take one of the ACC’s bowl spots?
Will the Citrus Bowl take an ACC team (or Notre Dame) this year?
MY OWN PROJECTIONS
I did my own set of projections with the following assumptions:
GT loses to Georgia (Georgia is favored by 11) and doesn’t schedule a 12th game
Wake beats Duke
Both Clemson and Miami get into CFP
FSU beats Florida and Louisiana-Monroe and becomes bowl eligible
The Citrus Bowl doesn’t take an ACC team.
Notre Dame beats Stanford and does not take an ACC bowl spot
Bowl eligible teams in this scenario (with current record)
1. Miami 10-0
2. Clemson 10-1
3. Virginia Tech 8-3
4. NC State 7-4
5. Wake Forest 7-4
6. Louisville 7-4
7. BC 6-5
8. Virginia 6-5
9. FSU 4-6
So Clemson and Miami go the CFP. I put Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl.
Camping World Bowl (fka Champs Sports Bowl, Russell Athletic Bowl) – This is a difficult call between NC State, Louisville and Wake. None of those teams have played there in the last three years. I’ll assume that NC State will sell the most tickets. My projection: NC State.
Tier 1 Bowls – I have five teams left on the board in this scenario. Wake, Louisville, BC, Virginia and FSU and four spots in the Tier 1 bowls. So one team will get left out. Let’s say that’s Virginia based on projected record (6-6) and their fan base isn’t huge. That puts Virginia in the Military Bowl – which happens to be a nice fit from a proximity standpoint. But this is a real key for Wake in this scenario – we have to keep ourselves more attractive than UVA (more tickets sales etc) or we risk falling into the next tier of bowls.
So FSU, Louisville, BC and Wake need to be slotted based on geographic proximity and preventing repeat appearances:
Belk Bowl – Seems obvious for Wake based on proximity. If Wake makes a Tier 1 bowl, the Belk Bowl seems like a lock. Louisville would be another candidate, but they were in this bowl in 2014.
Taxslayer Bowl (fka Gator Bowl) – FSU hasn’t been to this bowl since 2010. It’s a nice geographic fit. Let’s put them here.
Pinstripe Bowl – This seems like an obvious place for BC based on proximity, despite the fact that they went to this bowl in 2014. If the Pinstripe doesn’t want BC, Virginia would seem to be a candidate.
Sun Bowl – Louisville gets placed here by default. They haven’t been to the Sun Bowl since 1958.
This scenario seems like somewhat of a best case for Wake in that they only have to beat out one team (UVA) to make it to a Tier 1 bowl. If you change some of the assumptions that I made, there are scenarios where Wake would need to make themselves more attractive than 2-3 other teams in order to get selected for a Tier 1 bowl.
Hope this provides some clarity!
BOWL HIERARCHY FOR ACC TEAMS (simplified based on likely scenarios)
1. College Football Playoff
2. Orange
3. Citrus (**only if Orange Bowl takes a Big 10 team as the ACC’s opponent**)
4. Camping World
5. Tier 1 Bowl (Belk, Sun, Pinstripe, Taxslayer*)
6. Tier 1 Bowl (Belk, Sun, Pinstripe, Taxslayer*)
7. Tier 1 Bowl (Belk, Sun, Pinstripe, Taxslayer*)
8. Tier 1 Bowl (Belk, Sun, Pinstripe, Taxslayer*)
9. Military
10. Independence
11. Quick Lane
*Note: The Music City Bowl shares a slot with the Taxslayer Bowl. The thinking is that the Taxslayer Bowl will get first shot at an ACC team this year, but it still seems possible (albeit unlikely) that the Music City could take the Taxslayer’s spot.
DOES A TEAM’S RECORD MATTER?
I’ve seen some chatter on this board and on Twitter that some kind of “one-win rule” or “two-win rule” is broadly in effect for prioritizing bowl bids for ACC teams. I could be mistaken, but I think this is a myth. These rules were in effect in the Grobe era, but not anymore. Prioritization for bowls is now based largely on projections for tickets sales and perhaps television ratings. However, there are a few places where a team’s record still matters:
1. Teams with six or more wins are prioritized over teams with five wins. In fact, five win teams aren’t even subject to the ACC’s bowl tie-ins. They are basically free agents.
2. Teams are given “protection” based on their record against getting jumped by Notre Dame
3. There was info last year that 9-win teams (specifically) get priority over 6 and 7 win teams. I haven’t found that same info this year, but it wouldn’t surprise me if that was still in effect.
4. There is at least one article claiming that the Military, Independence and Quick Lane are now subject to one-win rule. Meaning that the Independence Bowl could not jump over the Military Bowl to take an 8-win team over a 6-win team.
BIGGEST REMAINING UNCERTAINTIES
How many ACC teams will the CFP take?
Which remaining teams (FSU, GT, Duke) will become bowl eligible?
Will Notre Dame take one of the ACC’s bowl spots?
Will the Citrus Bowl take an ACC team (or Notre Dame) this year?
MY OWN PROJECTIONS
I did my own set of projections with the following assumptions:
GT loses to Georgia (Georgia is favored by 11) and doesn’t schedule a 12th game
Wake beats Duke
Both Clemson and Miami get into CFP
FSU beats Florida and Louisiana-Monroe and becomes bowl eligible
The Citrus Bowl doesn’t take an ACC team.
Notre Dame beats Stanford and does not take an ACC bowl spot
Bowl eligible teams in this scenario (with current record)
1. Miami 10-0
2. Clemson 10-1
3. Virginia Tech 8-3
4. NC State 7-4
5. Wake Forest 7-4
6. Louisville 7-4
7. BC 6-5
8. Virginia 6-5
9. FSU 4-6
So Clemson and Miami go the CFP. I put Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl.
Camping World Bowl (fka Champs Sports Bowl, Russell Athletic Bowl) – This is a difficult call between NC State, Louisville and Wake. None of those teams have played there in the last three years. I’ll assume that NC State will sell the most tickets. My projection: NC State.
Tier 1 Bowls – I have five teams left on the board in this scenario. Wake, Louisville, BC, Virginia and FSU and four spots in the Tier 1 bowls. So one team will get left out. Let’s say that’s Virginia based on projected record (6-6) and their fan base isn’t huge. That puts Virginia in the Military Bowl – which happens to be a nice fit from a proximity standpoint. But this is a real key for Wake in this scenario – we have to keep ourselves more attractive than UVA (more tickets sales etc) or we risk falling into the next tier of bowls.
So FSU, Louisville, BC and Wake need to be slotted based on geographic proximity and preventing repeat appearances:
Belk Bowl – Seems obvious for Wake based on proximity. If Wake makes a Tier 1 bowl, the Belk Bowl seems like a lock. Louisville would be another candidate, but they were in this bowl in 2014.
Taxslayer Bowl (fka Gator Bowl) – FSU hasn’t been to this bowl since 2010. It’s a nice geographic fit. Let’s put them here.
Pinstripe Bowl – This seems like an obvious place for BC based on proximity, despite the fact that they went to this bowl in 2014. If the Pinstripe doesn’t want BC, Virginia would seem to be a candidate.
Sun Bowl – Louisville gets placed here by default. They haven’t been to the Sun Bowl since 1958.
This scenario seems like somewhat of a best case for Wake in that they only have to beat out one team (UVA) to make it to a Tier 1 bowl. If you change some of the assumptions that I made, there are scenarios where Wake would need to make themselves more attractive than 2-3 other teams in order to get selected for a Tier 1 bowl.
Hope this provides some clarity!
Right. The former ACC member in Columbia South Carolina.