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Omnibus Bowl Projections Thread - Belk Bowl

Deac94, thanks for that work. I happen to think the ACC will only get one team into the CFP, so how would your analysis change in that scenario?
 
Deac94 said:
I’ve been taking a LONG look at the bowl selection process for ACC teams. It’s frustrating how complicated it is, and how difficult it can be to find some of the details. There is also some conflicting info out there. Here is what I found:

BOWL HIERARCHY FOR ACC TEAMS (simplified based on likely scenarios)
1. College Football Playoff
2. Orange
3. Citrus (**only if Orange Bowl takes a Big 10 team as the ACC’s opponent**)
4. Camping World
5. Tier 1 Bowl (Belk, Sun, Pinstripe, Taxslayer*)
6. Tier 1 Bowl (Belk, Sun, Pinstripe, Taxslayer*)
7. Tier 1 Bowl (Belk, Sun, Pinstripe, Taxslayer*)
8. Tier 1 Bowl (Belk, Sun, Pinstripe, Taxslayer*)
9. Military
10. Independence
11. Quick Lane
*Note: The Music City Bowl shares a slot with the Taxslayer Bowl. The thinking is that the Taxslayer Bowl will get first shot at an ACC team this year, but it still seems possible (albeit unlikely) that the Music City could take the Taxslayer’s spot.

DOES A TEAM’S RECORD MATTER?
I’ve seen some chatter on this board and on Twitter that some kind of “one-win rule” or “two-win rule” is broadly in effect for prioritizing bowl bids for ACC teams. I could be mistaken, but I think this is a myth. These rules were in effect in the Grobe era, but not anymore. Prioritization for bowls is now based largely on projections for tickets sales and perhaps television ratings. However, there are a few places where a team’s record still matters:
1. Teams with six or more wins are prioritized over teams with five wins. In fact, five win teams aren’t even subject to the ACC’s bowl tie-ins. They are basically free agents.
2. Teams are given “protection” based on their record against getting jumped by Notre Dame
3. There was info last year that 9-win teams (specifically) get priority over 6 and 7 win teams. I haven’t found that same info this year, but it wouldn’t surprise me if that was still in effect.
4. There is at least one article claiming that the Military, Independence and Quick Lane are now subject to one-win rule. Meaning that the Independence Bowl could not jump over the Military Bowl to take an 8-win team over a 6-win team.

BIGGEST REMAINING UNCERTAINTIES
How many ACC teams will the CFP take?
Which remaining teams (FSU, GT, Duke) will become bowl eligible?
Will Notre Dame take one of the ACC’s bowl spots?
Will the Citrus Bowl take an ACC team (or Notre Dame) this year?

MY OWN PROJECTIONS
I did my own set of projections with the following assumptions:
GT loses to Georgia (Georgia is favored by 11) and doesn’t schedule a 12th game
Wake beats Duke
Both Clemson and Miami get into CFP
FSU beats Florida and Louisiana-Monroe and becomes bowl eligible
The Citrus Bowl doesn’t take an ACC team.
Notre Dame beats Stanford and does not take an ACC bowl spot

Bowl eligible teams in this scenario (with current record)
1. Miami 10-0
2. Clemson 10-1
3. Virginia Tech 8-3
4. NC State 7-4
5. Wake Forest 7-4
6. Louisville 7-4
7. BC 6-5
8. Virginia 6-5
9. FSU 4-6

So Clemson and Miami go the CFP. I put Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl.

Camping World Bowl (fka Champs Sports Bowl, Russell Athletic Bowl) – This is a difficult call between NC State, Louisville and Wake. None of those teams have played there in the last three years. I’ll assume that NC State will sell the most tickets. My projection: NC State.

Tier 1 Bowls – I have five teams left on the board in this scenario. Wake, Louisville, BC, Virginia and FSU and four spots in the Tier 1 bowls. So one team will get left out. Let’s say that’s Virginia based on projected record (6-6) and their fan base isn’t huge. That puts Virginia in the Military Bowl – which happens to be a nice fit from a proximity standpoint. But this is a real key for Wake in this scenario – we have to keep ourselves more attractive than UVA (more tickets sales etc) or we risk falling into the next tier of bowls.

So FSU, Louisville, BC and Wake need to be slotted based on geographic proximity and preventing repeat appearances:

Belk Bowl – Seems obvious for Wake based on proximity. If Wake makes a Tier 1 bowl, the Belk Bowl seems like a lock. Louisville would be another candidate, but they were in this bowl in 2014.

Taxslayer Bowl (fka Gator Bowl) – FSU hasn’t been to this bowl since 2010. It’s a nice geographic fit. Let’s put them here.

Pinstripe Bowl – This seems like an obvious place for BC based on proximity, despite the fact that they went to this bowl in 2014. If the Pinstripe doesn’t want BC, Virginia would seem to be a candidate.

Sun Bowl – Louisville gets placed here by default. They haven’t been to the Sun Bowl since 1958.

This scenario seems like somewhat of a best case for Wake in that they only have to beat out one team (UVA) to make it to a Tier 1 bowl. If you change some of the assumptions that I made, there are scenarios where Wake would need to make themselves more attractive than 2-3 other teams in order to get selected for a Tier 1 bowl.

Hope this provides some clarity!
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This is great, but no way Miami and Clemson make the CFP.
 
The Iron Sheik said:
Deac94, thanks for that work. I happen to think the ACC will only get one team into the CFP, so how would your analysis change in that scenario?
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That means another team (probably BC, FSU or Wake) would get pushed past the Tier 1 bowls and into Military/Shreveport territory.
 
I'm pretty sure the 1 game rule (specifically 7-5 over 6-6) was dropped, but the 2 game rule is still in effect. Hell, the word form the Belk Bowl reps was that they wanted to respect teams with the better record and would take a 7-5 Wake over 6-6 UVA. So if we get to 8-4, there is no chance we fall past Belk, in my mind.
 
Surprised at how many say ACC will not get 2 into CFP. Granted I don't think it is likely but do feel there is a decent chance if both win out for the reg. season and the ACC CG is a great one coming down to the wire and CU wins last min. or OT. UM didn't start out well with some close Ws over not so great competition, but they are looking stronger each week and absolutely destroyed a previous top 4 team ND as well as a top 20 Va Tech team and their D looked nasty while doing it virtually shutting down what had been a dominant ND running attack. And remember ND took UGA to the wire which no one else had even come close until Auburn's big W.

I do think a 2 loss CU is likely out if they lose to UM coupled with their Syracuse loss, but a one loss UM probably gets selected if either Alabama wins the SEC championship or if Wiscy loses a game knocking them out. If Auburn or UGA wins the SEC champ (meaning Auburn also won the Iron bowl over Alabama and then beat UGA again) I think the SEC homerism likely wins out and one of those 2 go along with the Tide are in CFP and a good chance an undefeated Wiscy is taken over a 1 loss UM whose only loss is to defending nat. champs and #2 seed? I just don't see a 1 loss OU with a loss to ISU (not horrible loss but not a top 10 team like the other SEC and ACC teams which they faced on more than one occasion) or a 2 loss OSU (one vs Iowa) being taken over 1 loss UM with only loss to CU.

So you heard it here first. If Wiscy goes down or Alabama runs the gammut the ACC gets 2 teams as long as they both win out and we have an exciting ACC championship game.
 
5 wins qualifies FSU? It's 50%, not 6 wins?
 
The ACC needs help in two places to get two teams in (other than, of course, Clemson winning against SC and Miami wining at Pitt, and having Clemson beat Miami in a competitive game):

= Wisconsin loses to tOSU
= Bama beats Auburn and UGA


If those two things happen, Bama and Clemson are in. Oklahoma is in (if TCU beat Oklahoma, that would help too, but a 12-2 TCU might jump Miami), and the 4th spot comes down to 11-1 Miami versus, 11-2 tOSU. Think Miami might get that nod.
 
Shorty said:
If we get MSST, I am not going unless the bowl imposes the same rules on those fucking cowbells as the SEC does.
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I remember not being too bothered by them at the Music City Bowl - when a whole side of a stadium is rattling them it's not a big deal. What would bug me would be the random single person doing it - that was much more annoying
 
Well, I just made hotel reservations for Charlotte so we definitely will NOT go to the Belk bowl...
 
CDeacMan said:
I remember not being too bothered by them at the Music City Bowl - when a whole side of a stadium is rattling them it's not a big deal. What would bug me would be the random single person doing it - that was much more annoying
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At the game, whatever.

In the hotel lobby, at the bars, in the restaurant...everywhere else and all the time? That was the worst.
 
Just lets you know who the idiots are from farther away.
 
tigerswood said:
I'm pretty sure the 1 game rule (specifically 7-5 over 6-6) was dropped, but the 2 game rule is still in effect. Hell, the word form the Belk Bowl reps was that they wanted to respect teams with the better record and would take a 7-5 Wake over 6-6 UVA. So if we get to 8-4, there is no chance we fall past Belk, in my mind.
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That was good info from Joe Giglio that Belk would take a 7-5 Wake over a 6-6 UVA. I guess the question is whether they would take an 8-4/7-5 Wake over a 6-6 FSU or a 6-5 GT (if they pull a BIG upset over UGA). There's obviously a strong argument that they would. Plus, the Belk Bowl wouldn't necessarily have priority claim on FSU or GT anyways.
 
I feel like FSU fans are pretty disgusted with this season and few would travel to Charlotte to watch them. Guessing mostly local fans would buy tickets.
 
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