KP Report WF @ Dook - Saturday 8 pm - ACCN

This is always the shortest report of the season, because no team is more over-exposed than Dook. ESPN is essentially partnering with them. Can't stand the pass that they get pretending to be an academics-first program when the Devils are now essentially Kentucky East, and Coach K gets praised when he has become a John Calipari knock-off. With that off my chest, here is the KP report on Dook:

This season: K's boys are 14-1 (losing to Stephen F. Austin -- ha ha) and the #1 team according to KP. Dook is 4-0 in the ACC with blowout wins over VT, BC and Miami. GT played the Devils tough on Wednesday before falling by 9. Duke has top 3 wins over #3 in Michigan State and #2 Kansas. Duke is strong both offensively (#4) and defensively (#4). On offense, Duke strength is inside; 58% of their points come from 2 point shots (#23), and only 25% of their offense on 3s (#294). They are #6 in offensive rebounding (grabbing 38% of their misses) and shoot 54% on 2 point shots. Duke is strong across the board on defense holding teams to a 45% effective FG% (#34) and forcing TOs on 23% of their opponents offensive possessions, while "amazingly" not fouling much... like Dook needs the benefit of the doubt.

The lineup: As always, a collection of HS A-As who, under K, often become less than the sum of their parts. Freshman Wendell Moore (#5 in minutes) is out with a hand injury. Against GT Duke started: 6-3 Tre Jones, 6-6 Cassius Stanley, Joey Baker (only played 4 minutes), 6-9 Matthew Hurt and 6-10 Vernon Carey. 6-2 Jordan Goldwire, 6-6 Alex O'Connell and 6-10 Javin DeLaurier all played substantial minutes off the bench. Hurt (41%) is the primary threat from 3, but all of the Dookies can shoot from deep. Inside Vernon Carey is a beast. He will be a high lottery pick, and KP has Carey rated as the #1 player in the country based upon production this year.

Bottom line: Blowout. KP projects an 83-63 Dook victory giving WF a 3% chance to pull the upset. Last year, in a similar spot, and the Deacs almost pulled off an epic upset losing 71-70. Chaundee had 21. Assuming Chaundee is out again tomorrow, this eliminates any sliver of hope which WF might have had to make the game competitive.

This is must not see TV. It's automatically getting recorded, so if the one in a million happens ...

It's in Cameron. Chaundee unlikely to play. K gets to play his walkons the last five minutes as Duke rolls. Duke hits the century mark. Wake struggles to get past 60.

I'm a guy who always wants us to win individual games, even though I'd like Manning gone yesterday. However, in this case, I'd be OK if we got boat-raced like 100-60 in a game that is completely non-competitive from the tip.

Will be the 3rd game in a row that I am not watching.

Still annoyed by last year's game... That would have been a nice win. An oasis in the desert of suck that is Wake Forest Basketball.

Remember Duncan never losing in Cameron?

Remember Rogers turning in what K called something like the finest performance I have ever witnessed from a visitor in this building in a blowout win?

Remember when Rudd and freshman Muggsy both played all 45 minutes and the Deacs beat Dawkins/Amaker/Alarie/Bilas/Henderson in an OT thriller?

I remember those times...but damn it's getting harder

"misty, water-color memories....of the way we were"

3% chance to win is an insanely optimistic number. Much less than .003 %.

The only hope we have is that their whole team, sans the walk ons, get a bad case of the flu and are unable to play. If that proves to be the case, I give us a 15% chance of winning

thatguy2016 said:

Remember Duncan never losing in Cameron?

Remember Rogers turning in what K called something like the finest performance I have ever witnessed from a visitor in this building in a blowout win?

Remember when Rudd and freshman Muggsy both played all 45 minutes and the Deacs beat Dawkins/Amaker/Alarie/Bilas/Henderson in an OT thriller?

I remember those times...but damn it's getting harder

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Member when K successfully deployed Patrick Davidson to get into Paul's head because he was terrified of him? I member.

There's no chance we keep the margin to 20. It might be 20 by the first TV timeout.

What will the line be? Duke -14? That is my guess

thatguy2016 said:

Remember Duncan never losing in Cameron?

Remember Rogers turning in what K called something like the finest performance I have ever witnessed from a visitor in this building in a blowout win?

Remember when Rudd and freshman Muggsy both played all 45 minutes and the Deacs beat Dawkins/Amaker/Alarie/Bilas/Henderson in an OT thriller?

I remember those times...but damn it's getting harder

Click to expand...

Every year I wonder is this the year we break the losing streak at Cameron. I am still amazed we nearly won last year. With that said, I don't think we fair as well this year without Chaundee. I expect Duke to win by a large margin.

DeacsATS said:

I'm a guy who always wants us to win individual games, even though I'd like Manning gone yesterday. However, in this case, I'd be OK if we got boat-raced like 100-60 in a game that is completely non-competitive from the tip.

Will be the 3rd game in a row that I am not watching.

Still annoyed by last year's game... That would have been a nice win. An oasis in the desert of suck that is Wake Forest Basketball.

Click to expand...

I was at the game last year.

Jack White gave us a true gift when he stepped over the baseline, thereby turning the ball over under Duke's basket with roughly 8 seconds left.

I look at Randolph, who motions to Manning, "Timeout?". Manning shakes his head no. I then knew we were going to lose. Of course why wouldn't we use one of our timeouts? Wake has all NBA players who can manufacture their own shot without a set play. (end sarcasm). I guess Manning didn't want them to set up their defense.

Brandon proceeded to dribble the clock down, take a contested off balance three fadeaway and the rest is history.

Chil Tron said:

I was at the game last year.

Jack White gave us a true gift when he stepped over the baseline, thereby turning the ball over under Duke's basket with roughly 8 seconds left.

I look at Randolph, who motions to Manning, "Timeout?". Manning shakes his head no. I then knew we were going to lose. Of course why wouldn't we use one of our timeouts? Wake has all NBA players who can manufacture their own shot without a set play. (end sarcasm). I guess Manning didn't want them to set up their defense.

Brandon proceeded to dribble the clock down, take a contested off balance three fadeaway and the rest is history.

Click to expand...

Not defending Manning in any way, but because Duke's defense was not set, Chaundee had a chance at a makeable put-back that just rolled off the rim for the win. Generally think the defense has the edge in college after timeouts in the final seconds.

CONeill said:

5 things to watch with an interesting anecdote from Brandon Childress about last year's loss at Cameron.

Click to expand...

Thanks!

My takeaway is that we're going to get smoked.

I generally lean pretty contrarian, and think we usually play better in the games where this board is convinced we'll get blown out... But this feels like a blowout. A "name your score" type game for the Blue Devils.

And I don't even think Duke is that good this year.

Duke's going to win the National Championship. Wake will not. This will conclude the hottakes portion of my program.

In a way I'm glad I don't have the ACC network so I won't be tempted to watch it. I know that is a bad attitude but the last 10 years of Wake basketball has about sapped my spirit.

Pilchard said:

Not defending Manning in any way, but because Duke's defense was not set, Chaundee had a chance at a makeable put-back that just rolled off the rim for the win. Generally think the defense has the edge in college after timeouts in the final seconds.

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fair point. In the moment I was frustrated with the decision but I can see it both ways.

thatguy2016 said:

Remember Duncan never losing in Cameron?

Remember Rogers turning in what K called something like the finest performance I have ever witnessed from a visitor in this building in a blowout win?

Remember when Rudd and freshman Muggsy both played all 45 minutes and the Deacs beat Dawkins/Amaker/Alarie/Bilas/Henderson in an OT thriller?

I remember those times...but damn it's getting harder

Click to expand...

Time to take a step....