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Non-Political Coronavirus Thread

BiffTannen said:
Yeah, Wake County is going to a one week on/two weeks off model. I think CMS is admitting they don't know WTF they're doing and they're afraid of being blamed for any uptick in the disease, even though it's rolling through Charlotte pretty good right now and everyone I know under 80 is doing just fine.
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Well, if everyone you know is doing just fine, then we should be set!

Listen, there is no mystery here regarding the epidemiology of COVID19. Social distancing prevents the spread, and when we moved from phase 1 to 2, the spread increased. Increased spread will lead to increased hospitalizations, which will lead to increased deaths. There is no mystery at all as to why Miami and Houston are currently in terrible shape. Classrooms will have outbreaks, teachers will be quarantined, and no substitute teacher will come to that classroom. So schools will shut down - it's inevitable. So the most practical approach is to admit this, and make the best plans possible for virtual school for this semester (and likely the year).
 
BiffTannen said:
Yeah, Wake County is going to a one week on/two weeks off model. I think CMS is admitting they don't know WTF they're doing and they're afraid of being blamed for any uptick in the disease, even though it's rolling through Charlotte pretty good right now and everyone I know under 80 is doing just fine.
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In a pandemic, your personal experience is irrelevant. You simply don't know enough people to provide any direct input to a population health conversation. Additionally, people lie. I know of multiple with COVID who kept it a big secret, even from their families.
 
Over 4 million school age kids live with someone 65 or over. Not including the families who use an older relative or caregiver who doesn't live with them to help out.
 
WhatUTalkinBout Willis said:
In a pandemic, your personal experience is irrelevant. You simply don't know enough people to provide any direct input to a population health conversation. Additionally, people lie. I know of multiple with COVID who kept it a big secret, even from their families.
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Yep, a friend of ours had it and we wouldn't have known unless it came up in conversation. It's not like everyone you know is going to pick up the phone and call you as soon as they test positive
 
Rafi said:
Well, if everyone you know is doing just fine, then we should be set!

Listen, there is no mystery here regarding the epidemiology of COVID19. Social distancing prevents the spread, and when we moved from phase 1 to 2, the spread increased. Increased spread will lead to increased hospitalizations, which will lead to increased deaths. There is no mystery at all as to why Miami and Houston are currently in terrible shape. Classrooms will have outbreaks, teachers will be quarantined, and no substitute teacher will come to that classroom. So schools will shut down - it's inevitable. So the most practical approach is to admit this, and make the best plans possible for virtual school for this semester (and likely the year).
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In your opinion, if you had a kid, and their smaller private school is planning to open under "plan A" so masking, social distancing, extra cleaning, etc. would you send them to school or would you pursue a virtual option?
 
tiltdeac said:
Over 4 million school age kids live with someone 65 or over. Not including the families who use an older relative or caregiver who doesn't live with them to help out.
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Great. Sounds like those kids should learn remotely and the other 47 million should go to school.

ETA: But the milkwiches are coming full circle, as I predicted. Some ice in Cornelius, have to shut the whole school system down.
 
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There is no good answer to the school issue. There are so many parents who simply cannot be home with their kids and the kids are too young to stay home alone. Just a shitty situation all the around. Kids from poor families and with unstable home environments are going to fall further behind. But just sending everyone to school and hoping for the best is obviously not a viable solution either.
 
DeacDiggler said:
i really don't understand this one.
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Those pulling the media strings have done a masterful job of politicizing the pandemic to the point of creating the illusion that if you do not support a full lockdown of everything, it means you are a racist redneck. Despite, as Biff points out, the #science and #experts demonstrating that the risk to school-age kids of any serious complications is unbelievable low, despite having been around their essential worker participation trophy and subsequently "opened up" parents for months now. To the school board, not being viewed as racist rednecks is more important than educating kids, so hence the result.
 
deac29 said:
There is no good answer to the school issue. There are so many parents who simply cannot be home with their kids and the kids are too young to stay home alone. Just a shitty situation all the around. Kids from poor families and with unstable home environments are going to fall further behind. But just sending everyone to school and hoping for the best is obviously not a viable solution either.
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It's incredibly tough. Risk crippling the public health due to one problem (COVID) versus the adverse effects of social distancing, etc. I really wish there were more evidence to show how sending kids back into school will actually proliferate the spread of COVID into those arenas that can harm public health overall, over run hospitals, etc. How many more people will really get very sick and/or die if we send kids back to school. And if we knew those answers, how many is too many?
 
Virginia High School League will not be playing any football this fall. That is all the public High Schools in Virginia. They are looking at three options and will decide by July 27 what they plan to do.

Options.

1. Keep all current sports seasons in the current order, but cancel all fall sports except golf and cross country. Use staggered start for cross country to maintain distance.

2. Swap fall and spring sports - baseball, soccer, track in the fall. Football in the spring. cancel boys and girls lacrosse completely.

3. Mini seasons, starting in December. Winter sports from Dec - Feb; fall sports from Feb to May and spring sports from April to June.
 
What's a real bitch is my license expired and I went to renew it online 2 months ago and I still haven't gotten my new one. So I run into all sorts of problems when trying to get alcohol delivered to me.
 
WhatUTalkinBout Willis said:
2&2 is trolling us. Let's just ignore and move on.
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Well I think it's more the difference of thinking:

1) Only .3% of people are affected, we can't shut down everything
vs
2) Holy shit 1 million people dead is a lot, on top of the other 10 million that end up in the hospital for a month
 
stugotz said:
Well I think it's more the difference of thinking:

1) Only .3% of people are affected, we can't shut down everything
vs
2) Holy shit 1 million people dead is a lot, on top of the other 10 million that end up in the hospital for a month
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Right, it is all how you look at it. We've had 1,000 people in NC die of the Rona, so say 1,000 people in the last 4.5 months. In every typical month in NC, we have 1,600 people die of cancer, 1,500 die from heart disease, 500 die from accidents, 460 from chronic lower respiratory diseases, AND 425 from stroke. Not to mention pneumonia, suicide, Alzheimers, diabetes, etc. (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/states/northcarolina/northcarolina.htm ). So yes, it is a lot of people dying from Covid, and yes most of the other diseases are not contagious (though the accidents do affect other people). But in the grand scheme of things, does the amount of deaths warrant the response? Significantly more people die of heart disease, but again we are not mandating healthy heart living.
 
Deaconblue said:
Virginia High School League will not be playing any football this fall. That is all the public High Schools in Virginia. They are looking at three options and will decide by July 27 what they plan to do.

Options.

1. Keep all current sports seasons in the current order, but cancel all fall sports except golf and cross country. Use staggered start for cross country to maintain distance.

2. Swap fall and spring sports - baseball, soccer, track in the fall. Football in the spring. cancel boys and girls lacrosse completely.

3. Mini seasons, starting in December. Winter sports from Dec - Feb; fall sports from Feb to May and spring sports from April to June.
Click to expand...

Spring football would be tough without a shortened season. Indoor practice facilities are non-existent at most schools. I guess you can start conditioning in January but in a lot of parts of the state, the fields likely will be mush until late March. Not to mention the frequent March monsoons.
 
Rafi said:
Well, if everyone you know is doing just fine, then we should be set!

Listen, there is no mystery here regarding the epidemiology of COVID19. Social distancing prevents the spread, and when we moved from phase 1 to 2, the spread increased. Increased spread will lead to increased hospitalizations, which will lead to increased deaths. There is no mystery at all as to why Miami and Houston are currently in terrible shape. Classrooms will have outbreaks, teachers will be quarantined, and no substitute teacher will come to that classroom. So schools will shut down - it's inevitable. So the most practical approach is to admit this, and make the best plans possible for virtual school for this semester (and likely the year).
Click to expand...

Yet, that is the exact opposite of what the #science and #experts say.

https://news.yahoo.com/german-study-finds-no-evidence-164704005.html
 
Rafi said:
Yeah, that's because Germany has about 400 cases per day, in the entire country! Of course they didn't find it in schools - they're not going to find it anywhere.

Maybe you should sit out this discussion?
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At the risk of defending 2and2 who is consistently wrong about everything, the article kind of takes that into account. Although full disclosure, I understand very little about how any of this works, which is why I speak on it infrequently and then never in absolutes. Two things that may benefit 2and2’s discourse.
 
GoalieMom said:
In your opinion, if you had a kid, and their smaller private school is planning to open under "plan A" so masking, social distancing, extra cleaning, etc. would you send them to school or would you pursue a virtual option?
Click to expand...

I would send them to school, but I would be prepared for everyone to be sent home for virtual learning pretty early into the semester.

I have school age kids. My kid in high school will be doing virtual learning, and my younger kids will be going to school, based the decision of the school board. For a minute I was upset for my high schooler, but I quickly realized that everyone will almost certainly be sent home, so the younger kids won't be in in-person school for very long.
 
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