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NBA offseason thread

Strickland33 said:
Well, first let's adjust their stats for pace over 40 minutes:

Kevin Martin = 28.8 p40pa
Courtney Lee = 15.0 p40pa

40% of Martin's production is a measly 11.52 points per game.

Lee is ultimately, closer to 50% of Martin's production, but that's just at first glance. If you notice, Lee gets just 8.2% of the Rockets's offensive possessions vs. 22.1% for Martin.

Lee touched the ball 37.1% less than Martin. Given that he already produces roughly half of the points that Martin does, I feel fairly comfortable projecting that Lee can get to 21.6 points per 40 minutes pace adjusted or 17.6 points per game.

Of course, it's based on loose assumptions and suspect math, but if you double Lee's possessions (which is still less than the amount of time Martin had the ball in his hands), at the very least, I'm guessing he's going to attempt more 7.1 FGA/game without Martin in the lineup.

Adding to say that you have to consider that the fact that Lee has primarily been used as a spot-up shooter and defensive specialist thus far in this career. That will change if they get rid of Kevin Martin.
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So was Trevor Ariza before he went to the Rockets before being asked to shoulder a bigger load.

You don't often keep your same %'s when trying to shoot more.

"According to Synergy Stats, Ariza was the worst isolation player in the league last season. This will not come as a surprise to Rockets or Hornets fans, both of whom have seen Ariza fling countless long Js over the past two seasons that had only a fleeting chance of finding the basket.

The problem with Ariza is that he's a role player, but since signing a big contract with Houston he's become convinced he's a go-to guy. So he keeps going one-on-one and forcing hero shots, as if former teammate Kobe Bryant was his model for the type of player he'd become. Uh, Trevor, I got news: You're no Kobe Bryant. Ariza shot 30.3 percent on 3s and 26.3 percent on long 2s last season, which might not be so bad if he hadn't tried them FOUR HUNDRED THIRTY FOUR TIMES. "


Kevin Martin's PER is over 21. Courtney Lee's is under 13. giving him more touches will not yield good results.
 
Deron and Dwight together could be very very dangerous, especially with the right pieces around them.

And getting rid of Travis Outlaw. He's terrible. One of the happiest days in my Blazer fandom was when I heard that we'd traded Outlaw and Blake for Marcus freaking Camby. Donald Sterling is such a sucker....
 
You can't take Kevin Martin's 1.49 Points per shot and Courtney Lee's 1.17 points per shot (and even that will go down if he shoots more) and multiply it by 25% more and get to 1.46 and say that Courtney Lee will provide 75% of what Kevin Martin will provide. It's more an exponential function, because while Lee is making 1.17 PPS he's taking away from more efficient players, which is most everyone else on his team and in the league. For comparison Ariza (considered the most inefficient scorer in the league) is 1.08 PPS.

Kevin Martin's TS% is 21st in the NBA, which is tied with Steve Nash, widely considered the best shooting PG of all time. Only Dirk and Pierce and Dwight are ahead of him as players that are high volume scorers. Most everyone ahead of his is either a strictly three point specialist or a Center (i.e. a low volume scorer). Courtney Lee is 176th Sandwiched between Jerryd Bayless and Boobie Gibson. And all stats show that his ranking would go down if he was asked to shoot twice as often.
 
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palmab03 said:
So was Trevor Ariza before he went to the Rockets before being asked to shoulder a bigger load.

You don't often keep your same %'s when trying to shoot more.

"According to Synergy Stats, Ariza was the worst isolation player in the league last season. This will not come as a surprise to Rockets or Hornets fans, both of whom have seen Ariza fling countless long Js over the past two seasons that had only a fleeting chance of finding the basket.

The problem with Ariza is that he's a role player, but since signing a big contract with Houston he's become convinced he's a go-to guy. So he keeps going one-on-one and forcing hero shots, as if former teammate Kobe Bryant was his model for the type of player he'd become. Uh, Trevor, I got news: You're no Kobe Bryant. Ariza shot 30.3 percent on 3s and 26.3 percent on long 2s last season, which might not be so bad if he hadn't tried them FOUR HUNDRED THIRTY FOUR TIMES. "


Kevin Martin's PER is over 21. Courtney Lee's is under 13. giving him more touches will not yield good results.
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Again, role matters here. PER doesn't project what you'll do when you completely change roles. It's not like Ariza because Lee is averaging 45.6% 2FG and 38% 3FG for his career. If you look at his college numbers, then you'll realize he's a great shooter and a solid finisher.

Compared to Kevin Martin who averages 47.6% 2FG and 38.1% 3FG for his career, they're actually similar.

I know that they're actually far less similar than I'm making them sound, but I'm just asserting that if you feature Courtney Lee with a revitalized core around Pau Gasol and possibly Nene, then losing Kevin Martin doesn't hurt as much.
 
The email wasn't in Comic Sans. I stand corrected.

That Granger tweet is gold.
 
Can I just point out how badly the Knicks are potentially screwed since they pre-emptively moved on the Chandler-CP3 package deal?

They amnestied Chauncey, which leaves them with the following PG rotation, as of 2:25 a.m.:

Toney Douglas/Iman Shumpert

You'll notice that neither of them are point guards.
 
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Strickland33 said:
Again, role matters here. PER doesn't project what you'll do when you completely change roles. It's not like Ariza because Lee is averaging 45.6% 2FG and 38% 3FG for his career. If you look at his college numbers, then you'll realize he's a great shooter and a solid finisher.

Compared to Kevin Martin who averages 47.6% 2FG and 38.1% 3FG for his career, they're actually similar.

I know that they're actually far less similar than I'm making them sound, but I'm just asserting that if you feature Courtney Lee with a revitalized core around Pau Gasol and possibly Nene, then losing Kevin Martin doesn't hurt as much.
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Except martin gets a 1 foulshot for every 2 regular shots he takes and he makes 88% of them. Lee gets 1 for every 5 and takes 80% of them. Hollinger would beat you senseless if he was in the same room as you. That and you're assuming Lee will keep his percentages if he shoots twice as often.
 
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Translation of Dan Gilbert's email:

Dear NBA,

I am a shitty owner/GM/executive. Please make sure that everyone is as bad as I am. Because that's fair...right?

-Dan Gilbert
 
RipCityDeac said:
Translation of Dan Gilbert's email:

Dear NBA,

I am a shitty owner/GM/executive. Please make sure that everyone is as bad as I am. Because that's fair...right?

-Dan Gilbert
Click to expand...

Occupy Chris Paul
 
palmab03 said:
Except martin gets a 1 foulshot for every 2 regular shots he takes and he makes 88% of them. Lee gets 1 for every 5 and takes 80% of them. Hollinger would beat you senseless if he was in the same room as you. That and you're assuming Lee will keep his percentages if he shoots twice as often.
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He has shot that well for his entire career in the NBA. He was even better in college. He was an absolute force at Western Kentucky.

I would simply respond to Hollinger by showing him game film of Lee on Western Kentucky. I think from there we'd agree that Lee's role in the NBA is very different than his role in college and, since he is still a very good shooter and scorer (not to mention all of the defense, IQ, and assorted intangibles that got him drafted in the first round), that there is the potential that his role, assuming Martin is traded, can change.

At that point, I'd point out that his numbers are incapable of predicting anything outside of what Lee has done in the NBA already (unless, of course, he was able to run his numbers on Lee's college stats, adjusted for 40 minutes and competition). He would likely agree. Then, I'd point out that Lee has yet to be featured in an NBA offense to the same extent. He would say no, but he didn't play well on a bad Nets team in an expanded role. We'd agree that that's inconclusive. He'd re-assert that Lee is what he is and I'd re-assert that I don't agree based on the previously mentioned criteria.

We'd both continue to be misanthropes with too much time on our hands. I'm not sure that anybody would be beaten senseless...
 
I really really hope that this CP3 business doesn't somehow kill the deal and send us back into lockout mode again. We're so close....
 
Strickland33 said:
He has shot that well for his entire career in the NBA. He was even better in college. He was an absolute force at Western Kentucky.

I would simply respond to Hollinger by showing him game film of Lee on Western Kentucky. I think from there we'd agree that Lee's role in the NBA is very different than his role in college and, since he is still a very good shooter and scorer (not to mention all of the defense, IQ, and assorted intangibles that got him drafted in the first round), that there is the potential that his role, assuming Martin is traded, can change.

At that point, I'd point out that his numbers are incapable of predicting anything outside of what Lee has done in the NBA already (unless, of course, he was able to run his numbers on Lee's college stats, adjusted for 40 minutes and competition). He would likely agree. Then, I'd point out that Lee has yet to be featured in an NBA offense to the same extent. He would say no, but he didn't play well on a bad Nets team in an expanded role. We'd agree that that's inconclusive. He'd re-assert that Lee is what he is and I'd re-assert that I don't agree based on the previously mentioned criteria.

We'd both continue to be misanthropes with too much time on our hands. I'm not sure that anybody would be beaten senseless...
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I like Lee alot. I just don't think saying he's capable of coming close to replicating one of the most efficient scorers in the NBA is anywhere close to realistic.

Some thing translate, but the most efficient scorers are the ones that get to the like 8-10 times per game in this NBA with the ticky tack fouls called. There's no arguing that. And Lee has a fairly proven track record of shying away from contact. People who avoid contact like the plague don't all the sudden learn to draw contact all that often, and as a result always disappoint in the advanced metrics.

Where Martin falls short is, as you said, defensively. He's horrific. Your argument should be that Lee makes up for Martin on the defensive end, which will mean they likely won't miss him much and leave it at there and you could well be right. When you start to argue he'll come close to replacing him offensively is where it falls short.
 
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palmab03 said:
I like Lee alot. I just don't think saying he's capable of coming close to replicating one of the most efficient scorers in the NBA is anywhere close to realistic.

Some thing translate, but the most efficient scorers are the ones that get to the like 8-10 times per game in this NBA with the ticky tack fouls called. There's no arguing that. And Lee has a fairly proven track record of shying away from contact. People who avoid contact like the plague don't all the sudden learn to draw contact all that often, and as a result always disappoint in the advanced metrics.

Where Martin falls short is, as you said, defensively. He's horrific. Your argument should be that Lee makes up for Martin on the defensive end, which will mean they likely won't miss him much and leave it at there and you could well be right. When you start to argue he'll come close to replacing him offensively is where it falls short.
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You are right. He's not going to average 28.8 points per 40 minutes pace adjusted and he won't get to the line 9.1 times via that same adjustment.

Remember, though: I'm supporting my assertion that Lee can, in theory, provide for 75% of Kevin Martin's production, which I identified as 17.6 points per game.*

Based on what the information that I provided, I'm going to stand by that.






*Because, you are right: defense matters, too. I wonder what Martin's actual productivity is like when you factor in how many points he gives up on defense. A better analysis (a.k.a. not at 3:36 a.m.) would account for this for both Martin and Lee.
 
palmab03 said:
Some thing translate, but the most efficient scorers are the ones that get to the like 8-10 times per game in this NBA with the ticky tack fouls called. There's no arguing that. And Lee has a fairly proven track record of shying away from contact. People who avoid contact like the plague don't all the sudden learn to draw contact all that often, and as a result always disappoint in the advanced metrics.
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Can you prove this?

I'm looking at his stats page and he improved mightily by the time he was a senior to 6.4 FTA/40PA.

Now, is that elite? No. Kevin Martin, as you can see here, was averaging over 12 FTA/40PA.

That being said, Lee wasn't exactly shying away from contact. He was just about average.

From his NBA scouting profile:

Lee’s strengths offensively are not limited to the perimeter, as he has proven that he can get to the basket and do something once he’s there. He’s quick off the bounce and incredibly smooth as he covers a lot of ground on very few dribbles. In game three against Boston, Lee took the ball from his own free throw line and layed it in on the other side of the court in two dribbles – an impressive feat. He has outstanding body control and is able to absorb contact, due in large part to the way he utilizes a two foot jump stop in the paint which enables him to stay on balance. He’s very effective when he gets all the way to the basket, and elevates extremely well once he’s there – showing that he’s a much better than advertised athlete.

When he doesn’t get all the way to the basket however, Lee resorts to floaters or tear drops, a shot he hasn’t had much success with this season. He settles for this shot too often which is part of the reason, coupled with his simple role on offense, as to why he’s only attempting 1.2 free throws a game. It would benefit him greatly to create more attempts at the line, where he is an 83% shooter. He's not an overly creative shot-creator, sporting just average instincts in this part of his game, which goes along with the notion that he projects mostly as an excellent role-player.

Furthermore, he has to mix up his driving patterns more as he heavily favors driving to his left (72.6% according to SST). Nonetheless, Lee is currently finishing at the basket at a respectable rate of 57.4% (SST), and with a year under his belt, and improved ball-handling skills, he should be able to increase that next season.

He hasn’t been asked to handle the ball that much for the Magic, but he’s certainly taking care of it when he does. Lee is top 20 in our entire NBA database in fewest turnovers per possession (#2 amongst rookies behind Anthony Morrow), only coughing the ball up on 11% of the time. He’s also sporting a solid 1.33 assist/turnover ratio, further adding to his value.
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from a college report in 2007:

Lee’s offense isn’t limited to his jump shot, though, as he has average ball-handling skills for a wing, and can take the ball to the basket with either hand adequately well. Lee strangely prefers going to his left with the ball even though he’s a righty, showing more confidence and a more controlled dribble going in that direction. When he takes the ball to the basket, he shows very good body control and ability to adjust in mid-air, also taking contact well when necessary with his well-built frame. Lee doesn’t rely on going to the basket much, though, as he’s more effective from the perimeter and his ball-handling is good, not great. He doesn’t really change directions well with his dribble in the lane, though he has a nice crossover he can use in space on the perimeter. Lee also does have a nice floater from around 10 feet that sometimes looks like it’s a half jump-shot, which he gets off quickly and easily.
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Where's this track record again?
 
Strickland33 said:
Where's this track record again?
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His career NBA stats of over 8 field goal attempts per game and 1.6 FT per game?

Per ESPN

"Lee is also an athletic finisher, especially going right and in transition, but he's not as effective in halfcourt settings because he won't take a hit. As a result, Lee's free throw rate is consistently well below the norm for his position. "
 
I still don't understand how the NBA expects the teams to just go on now? They've made every team weaker through loss of chemistry. Why would Odom and Gasol want to buy into the team concept when their team attempted to trade them? The Hornets are now going to get nothing for Paul unless some trade actually gets approved. Rockets lose chemistry with their players as well.

I think the most embarrassing thing is that the NBA still is pretending like it just vetoed the trade like a normal owner for "basketball reasons", and that there were no outside forces. This league is more corrupt than old time Las Vegas.
 
RipCityDeac said:
I really really hope that this CP3 business doesn't somehow kill the deal and send us back into lockout mode again. We're so close....
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Well as someone pointed out.....if Stern pulled this shit a couple days ago, instead of right when the cba is signed, then we are still in lockout mode.
 
I don't follow the Celtics at all, but one thing I don't understand is why they are so involved. Rajon is pretty damn legit.....let's trade a really good point guard for a really really good point guard!
 
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