Wake Ken Pom Thread: 2014-15 Preaseason = 104, Currently = 125 Season Over

[jaybone]

The problem with having tree inbounds the ball is that if the defense tries to trap or double the guy who receives the pass (say cj) usually looks to dump it back to the inbounds guy. So tree is muc more likely to end up with the ball than say Travis.

That said. Should have been chase flashing down the sideline not Moto. Big mistake. Chase looks pretty strong to me. That's not his struggle. He telegraphs his passes and he doesn't get them off very fast

 

[RJKarl]

The problem with having tree inbounds the ball is that if the defense tries to trap or double the guy who receives the pass (say cj) usually looks to dump it back to the inbounds guy. So tree is muc more likely to end up with the ball than say Travis.

"What? It doesn't matter if it's Tree or Joe Blow."

That said. Should have been chase flashing down the sideline not Moto. Big mistake. Chase looks pretty strong to me. That's not his struggle. He telegraphs his passes and he doesn't get them off very fast

..

 

[Schwabber89]

Up to 138.

Funny, BC moved up 3 spots too to 132. So despite beating them, we didn't gain on them in the rankings. I guess the Duke loss impacted SOS.

 

[ChrisL68]

Funny, BC moved up 3 spots too to 132. So despite beating them, we didn't gain on them in the rankings. I guess the Duke loss impacted SOS.

If a team is only ranked a few spots ahead of you. you aren't going to gain much, if at all, by beating them by 3 at home.

It will be harder for us to move to the top 100 than from where we were to where we are now due to two factors.

1. The more games we play, the less impact current games will have.

2. Our performances will have to be better to exceed our mean ranking. When you are ranked in the low 200s, winning games over top 100ish teams will improve your ranking fast. Once you start getting closer to the top 100, those performances won't exceed your mean by that much.

 

[RedSoxFaithful]

If a team is only ranked a few spots ahead of you. you aren't going to gain much, if at all, by beating them by 3 at home.

It will be harder for us to move to the top 100 than from where we were to where we are now due to two factors.

1. The more games we play, the less impact current games will have.

2. Our performances will have to be better to exceed our mean ranking. When you are ranked in the low 200s, winning games over top 100ish teams will improve your ranking fast. Once you start getting closer to the top 100, those performances won't exceed your mean by that much.

I don't know that I agree with that conclusion. We didn't move up last night because the game went about as close to what KenPom projected as possible. From here on out, any win (or really, any extremely close loss) should improve our rankings. There's obviously diminishing returns there, but beating, say, Clemson or VT next week should move us a few spots. The real problem is a game like the one we have coming up against State... KenPom projects an 8 point loss for us. A blowout there could hurt the rankings.

 

[ChrisL68]

If a team is only ranked a few spots ahead of you. you aren't going to gain much, if at all, by beating them by 3 at home.

It will be harder for us to move to the top 100 than from where we were to where we are now due to two factors.

1. The more games we play, the less impact current games will have.

2. Our performances will have to be better to exceed our mean ranking. When you are ranked in the low 200s, winning games over top 100ish teams will improve your ranking fast. Once you start getting closer to the top 100, those performances won't exceed your mean by that much.

I don't know that I agree with that conclusion. We didn't move up last night because the game went about as close to what KenPom projected as possible. From here on out, any win (or really, any extremely close loss) should improve our rankings. There's obviously diminishing returns there, but beating, say, Clemson or VT next week should move us a few spots. The real problem is a game like the one we have coming up against State... KenPom projects an 8 point loss for us. A blowout there could hurt the rankings.

We are pretty much saying the same thing. It will be harder to move up further than from were we were because our projected performance has improved. Still beating a top 100 team on the road will move us up certainly.

 

[Neurodeac]

How far has UVA dropped with their loss to us and Clemson?

 

[RedSoxFaithful]

We are pretty much saying the same thing. It will be harder to move up further than from were we are because our projected performance has improved. Still beating a top 100 team on the road will move us up certainly.

Gotcha.

 

[RedSoxFaithful]

How far has UVA dropped with their loss to us and Clemson?

They were 28th when they played us. They're 46th now.

 

[ChrisL68]

46

 

[TheIshThatSaved WakeForest]

If you look at the individual games, Wake only has an over 50% chance in one of them - the last one of the year against VT

 

[TexasDeac10]

Can anyone with a subscription to kenpom look up our offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding, and transition D numbers over the past 5 seasons or so?

I know it's a lot to ask, but much is made about our terrible rebounding and I wonder to what extent it's because we make zero effort for offensive boards in order to get back to on defense. In other words, if there's a trend of getting defensive rebounds at a respectable rate, and giving up few points in transition, then I'm not as concerned about our godawful offensive rebounding rate and resulting poor total rebounding rate.

 

[Doggus]

We're sitting at 113 in the RPI. Up 100 spots or so in past few weeks. UVA at 153.

 

[RJKarl]

We're sitting at 113 in the RPI. Up 100 spots or so in past few weeks. UVA at 153.

UVA is also #70 on Sagarin.

 

[vtwhat etc]

 

[ChrisL68]

A return to the "zone" would be about as damming of an indictment of our basketball program as there could be.

 

[AnonymousDeac]

A return to the "zone" would be about as damming of an indictment of our basketball program as there could be.

KenPom has us losing our remaining games at an avergae margin of 8.1 points per game. If we do significantly worse than that, don't think it's unreal to believe we dip back to near the [Redacted] zone.

Expected home margin: 6
Expected away margin: 10.3

Only predicted to win the final game at home vs VTech (by 4).

 

[ChrisL68]

What is our predicted final ACC record? 5-13?

 

[RacerDeac]

There's certainly a trend around this point in the season...

 

[vtwhat etc]

What is our predicted final ACC record? 5-13?

That's correct, although its only ~2% more likely than 6-12; then there's a 10% drop in probability before you reach any of the other possible outcomes.