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Wake Ken Pom Thread: 2014-15 Preaseason = 104, Currently = 125 Season Over

AnonymousDeac said:
KenPom has us losing our remaining games at an avergae margin of 8.1 points per game. If we do significantly worse than that, don't think it's unreal to believe we dip back to near the [Redacted] zone.

Expected home margin: 6
Expected away margin: 10.3

Only predicted to win the final game at home vs VTech (by 4).
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So if KenPom is predicting a 5-13 record in ACC, what games (besides VT at home) are we projected to win?
 
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RacerDeac said:
There's certainly a trend around this point in the season...

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That's remarkable.
 
thedeacfan said:
So if KenPom is predicting a 5-13 record in ACC, what games (besides VT at home) are we projected to win?
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It's saying that will likely win a game or two that we're not projected to win, which would be normal (see UVA) and expected. It doesn't predict record by simply adding up the games we are 50+% likely to win. Example: If we play two games, and we have a 40% likelihood of winning each game, there's a 64% chance we win one of those games (I think I did the math correct).
 
thedeacfan said:
So if KenPom is predicting a 5-13 record in ACC, what games (besides VT at home) are we projected to win?
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Not exactly how it works.

On a game-by-game basis, we are only favorite to win one game. However, his 5-13 prediction is based off assuming we'll pull off an upset here or there.

Our most likely possibilities:
VTech 63%
GTech 46%
FSU 38%
@Vtech 35%
Maryland 32%
@BC 32%
 
Not surprisingly it's the exact point in each season that ACC play starts and the Premiere can't protect his boy anymore with a super cupcake OOC schedule. We are so used to playing the High Points and Radfords that we are initially shocked by the sudden step up in talent, size and athleticism of ACC teams and takes a couple of weeks to adjust before we level out around the [Redacted] zone.

RacerDeac said:
There's certainly a trend around this point in the season...

x2use1.png
Click to expand...
 
RacerDeac said:
It's saying that will likely win a game or two that we're not projected to win, which would be normal (see UVA) and expected. It doesn't predict record by simply adding up the games we are 50+% likely to win. Example: If we play two games, and we have a 40% likelihood of winning each game, there's a 64% chance we win one of those games (I think I did the math correct).
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Yep. Although it's 64% chance we win at least one of those games. 16% chance of winning both + 48% chance of winning either.

Hard to see us picking up a road win. Who knows where the mentality of the teams will be on CJ's senior night.
 
Hey ken pom subscribers, do his player stats include FG% on shots taken at the rim?

I know the league average on this stat is like 60% or so in the NBA. It's thought that most players come from college with this skill, and it's not really something they develop over time. Thus, someone like Austin Rivers who can shoot 3's at a nice clip but can't finish at the rim (shoots like 40% there, well under league average) is already considered a bust.

Just curious how each of our guys do compared to the NCAA average.
 
It's just basic expected value IIRC. If you have 0 wins and you have three games where the odds of winning are 90%, 70%, and 50%, then the expected number of wins would be 2.4 (.9+.7+.5).

There are no explicit stats on shots taken at the rim, but there are stats on two pointers attempted and three pointers attempted as a team. I mean there's absolutely no doubt that we're bad around the rim, I'd be curious to see the stats too.
 
TexasDeac10 said:
Hey ken pom subscribers, do his player stats include FG% on shots taken at the rim?

I know the league average on this stat is like 60% or so in the NBA. It's thought that most players come from college with this skill, and it's not really something they develop over time. Thus, someone like Austin Rivers who can shoot 3's at a nice clip but can't finish at the rim (shoots like 40% there, well under league average) is already considered a bust.

Just curious how each of our guys do compared to the NCAA average.
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You can get that stat on Synergy, IIRC. I know some of the advanced stat-sites like Hoopdata keep it for the pros, but you'd have to find someone with access to Synergy for college.
 
Oh, I know we're horrible as a team. I would love to see individual player stats though, just to tell if there's any hope. CMM, for example, seems to finish quite well around the rim.
 
Up to 134. Projected record is 14-16 (7-11).

:willynilly:
 
People who were predicting we would win only one more game were letting their dislike of Bzzzz cloud their judgement.
 
anyone wanna post win likelihood percentages for the rest of the games?
 
24% Georgia Tech
7% Duke
17% Maryland
15% UNC
49% Florida State
33% Boston College
49% Georgia Tech
21% Miami
23% Florida State
39% Maryland
12% State
68% Va. Tech
 
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