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"Coaching" vs. "Talent"

FckVwls said:
I think most people would conclude that this year went about average/as expected given our player mix. Finished close to as projected by the humans in the ACC polls. Preseason 104 Kenpom (which weights a ton of factors and does pretty well) and finished around there.

I think we'll find out a lot more next year. Assuming CM/DT/Crab/Mitch/Dinos all come back with the 3 freshmen I think KP 60-70ish is reasonable expectation?
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I think that's closer to a realistic ceiling rather than a reasonable expectation. Next year's team won't be as talented as the 07-08 team that went 17-13 and finished 69th in Kenpom and probably won't be much more talented than the 06-07 team that finished 15-16 and 102 in Kenpom.
 
RChildress107 said:
I think that's closer to a realistic ceiling rather than a reasonable expectation. Next year's team won't be as talented as the 07-08 team that went 17-13 and finished 69th in Kenpom and probably won't be much more talented than the 06-07 team that finished 15-16 and 102 in Kenpom.
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Thanks for doing this research. What do the numbers look like if we make Wilbekin/Dinos & Crab all 3 stars. I hate to get into outliers of certain players either out-performing or under-performing their star ranking, but I think those three have all proven to be at least 3 star caliber.
 
CumberlandDeac said:
Thanks for doing this research. What do the numbers look like if we make Wilbekin/Dinos & Crab all 3 stars. I hate to get into outliers of certain players either out-performing or under-performing their star ranking, but I think those three have all proven to be at least 3 star caliber.
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It jumps to 3.4

But if you are going to do that then you should probably bump Rountree, Washington, and Overton down to 2* and maybe even McClinton to 2.5.

that brings you back down to 3.27

I thought about making adjustments to players who clearly were a different level than their * Rating but didn't for several reasons:

1. It would've taken a really long time and been totally subjective.

2. The goal is to isolate a coach's ability by controlling for the level of talent. Part of a coach's job is player development and player identification. Wilbekin is clearly better than Shamaine Dukes, but Manning should get credit for identifying that and bringing him in.

3. In the same vein, it's difficult to isolate how much of our freshmen's success stems from their raw talent level vs. Manning's ability to instill confidence and put them in a position to succeed.
 
RChildress107 said:
If I have time later this week (I probably will) I was going to run a similar regression for all ACC teams over the last 3-4 years. That would increase the sample size and give us something to compare Manning to that isn't heavily influenced by the REDACTED years.
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You're right [Redacted] drags the line downward, but even excluding those 4 years, Manning's performance is above the regression line. It is interesting that deleting the Bz years increase the R-squared value to 0.84, meaning that without Bz, talent scores explain 84% of the variation in number of wins in a season, with him that drops about 25%.

(You might know this already, but If you do go to the effort to get the data on other teams, a better analysis would be a Poisson GLM instead of a least squares regression...the pattern of results may not change much but the data are positive integers so it's the right analysis to use. I don't know how to quickly do one in excel so I went with LS regression here...anyway back to reading this dissertation.)
 
This is pretty interesting. Thanks for taking the time to do it.
 
Honestly, I didn't see neither a lot of coaching or talent on the floor this year. I will admit that Danny is a better coach than fuck face, but I don't see a Skip or Odom on the sideline. As far as talent goes, this team has very little but they are better and capable of beating decent teams when they play fundamentally sound basketball.

Danny has to find a way to make these guys better and it starts simply with defense. It takes talent to play defense but a lot of it is effort. We aren't built to out score people so we need to play defense and rebound. Both of these require effort which was not given very much this year. Coaching wise, Danny needs to teach the big guys better ways to box out as well as rebound. I really didn't see much improvement from DT from last year. Maybe that is because DT just doesn't want to. Either way, I hope that we get better if not next year might not be much better.
 
Obviously not all 5-stars, 4-stars, etc. are the same. I think recruiting rankings would be a better variable to use than stars. That way you're not grouping all 5-stars together, all 4-stars together, all 3-stars together, etc. I'm guessing you went with the star approach since there are so many unranked guys on our team, however (thanks, Bz). And in regards to birdman's regression, I would use KenPom ranking as opposed to just # of wins as the dependent variable to adjust for schedule. Obviously wouldn't be a perfect model with those adjustments since rankings is an ordinal variable (and also completely subjective for recruiting rankings), but I think it would work a bit better.
 
bobknightfan said:
Talent wins games, you say. So which team wins this 1984 NCAA Tournament Eastern Regional Game?

Matt Doherty
Sam Perkins (1st Round NBA Draft Pick)
Brad Daugherty (1st Round NBA Draft Pick)
Michael Jordan (1st Round NBA Draft Pick)
Kenny Smith (1st Round NBA Draft Pick)

vs

Mike Giomi
Dan Dakich
Uwe Blab
Marty Simmons
Steve Alford (Freshman)
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A very thought-provoking question! Makes one really understand how great Calipari must be at Xs and Os to go undefeated this year.
 
Let's don't chase this rabbit. I am willing to stipulate that Knight was a great coach in many respects. Also, want Wake to get a good combination of talent and character in our recruits. Don't see why we can't have both moving forward. Apparently, DM and staff left Frank Haith in good shape at Tulsa.
 
bobknightfan said:
Talent wins games, you say. So which team wins this 1984 NCAA Tournament Eastern Regional Game?

Matt Doherty
Sam Perkins (1st Round NBA Draft Pick)
Brad Daugherty (1st Round NBA Draft Pick)
Michael Jordan (1st Round NBA Draft Pick)
Kenny Smith (1st Round NBA Draft Pick)

vs

Mike Giomi
Dan Dakich
Uwe Blab
Marty Simmons
Steve Alford (Freshman)
Click to expand...

Upsets happen. Indiana had way more talent than Cleveland State in 86. We can play this game all day long.
 
simosfrostyone said:
RJK could settle this but alas he is now on TOB.
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RJ is single-handledly reviving TOB. It's only a matter of time before he gets banned over there. He can't help but hit back when someone hits first.
 
bobknightfan said:
That 1984 Carolina team was better than this year's Kentucky team....and there are at least four teams in the ACC this year that are better than that 1984 Indiana team.

That's the thing about Coach Knight. He could take his players and beat your players.....or he could take your players and beat his players. He would have won 20+ games and made the post-season this year with this WF team. Hell, he won 23 games and made the NCAAT his first year at TT with a team that didn't have as much talent as this WF team....two returning starters from a team that went 3-13 in the conference, two transfers...one of whom averaged only six points, and a walk-on. And no depth. And Andre Emmett averaged 7 PPG the year before Knight got there. Knight was the reason that Emmett developed into an all-conference player.
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WOULD YOU PLEASE STFU ABOUT BOBBY KNIGHT? NOBODY CARES!!!!
 
bobknightfan said:
Talent wins games, you say. So which team wins this 1984 NCAA Tournament Eastern Regional Game?

Matt Doherty
Sam Perkins (1st Round NBA Draft Pick)
Brad Daugherty (1st Round NBA Draft Pick)
Michael Jordan (1st Round NBA Draft Pick)
Kenny Smith (1st Round NBA Draft Pick)

vs

Mike Giomi
Dan Dakich
Uwe Blab
Marty Simmons
Steve Alford (Freshman)
Click to expand...

Not exactly. (If that was the case then why play the games?!?!?!).

I say that recruiting rankings combined with experience are a good predictor of a team's winning percentage over the course of the season.

The metric I set out in the OP wouldn't do nearly as well at predicting the outcomes of individual games, which are subject to more variation.

I didn't watch a single Eastern Regional Game from 1969 until 1993, as part of my boycott of the Eastern Region following the downgrading of Hurricane Camille to a tropical storm, so I missed the game you are asking about.

I'd say that the first team would probably win 9 out of 10 games against the second team.
 
bobknightfan said:
That 1984 Carolina team was better than this year's Kentucky team....and there are at least four teams in the ACC this year that are better than that 1984 Indiana team.

That's the thing about Coach Knight. He could take his players and beat your players.....or he could take your players and beat his players. He would have won 20+ games and made the post-season this year with this WF team. Hell, he won 23 games and made the NCAAT his first year at TT with a team that didn't have as much talent as this WF team....two returning starters from a team that went 3-13 in the conference, two transfers...one of whom averaged only six points, and a walk-on. And no depth. And Andre Emmett averaged 7 PPG the year before Knight got there. Knight was the reason that Emmett developed into an all-conference player.
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I'm used to FoxNews level spin when it comes to you and Bob Knight, but this is pretty ridiculous.

That TT team had two guys who ended up playing in the NBA (Emmett and Kasib Powell) and a third (Andy Ellis) who had a decent career overseas. Emmett only averaged 7 PPG before Knight got there because he was a freshman playing 20 minutes a game. His per 40 minute statistical jump is what you would expect to see from freshman to sophomore year.
 
I am curious what happened to Knight's magical coaching ability year 2 at Texas Tech when they went 6-10 in the Big 12? Or the 2005-2006 season when he went 15-17. Or the last 6 years at Indiana when he failed to make it out of the first weekend of the NCAA tournament coaching at one of the elite programs in college basketball. We have been led to believe that he could just pull 5 guys out of the student body and win 25 game.
 
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bkf is the greatest #SmallSampleSizeDeac of all-time.
 
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