"Coaching" vs. "Talent"

[WFcatamount22]

]He returned his annual base salary to the school because he said he didn't do the job he should have done and didn't deserve his salary. [/B] Give me the names of all the other coaches in history who have done that.

http://a.espncdn.com/ncb/news/2003/0310/1521422.html

However, Knight won 11 Big Ten Championships & 3 NCAA Championships....and coached two other teams to the Final Four. He also played on an NCAA Championship team & played in the NCAA Championship game two other times. So he has been personally involved in 8 NCAA Final Fours. By comparison, all the coaches combined at WF have won a total of 4 ACC Championships in 62 years and made exactly 1 Final Four....so it's laughable for anyone from WF to question Bob Knight's achievements, as there is not much reason to compare what Bob Knight has accomplished with anything that has ever happened in basketball at WF.

I Didn't know he returned his salary that's pretty awesome.

Anytime Ron wants to return his fat bonus checks that would be great...

 

[ChrisL68]

as there is not much reason to compare what Bob Knight has accomplished with anything that has ever happened in basketball at WF.

This coming from the person who interjects comparisons to Bob Knight on just about every thread on WFU basketball

 

[birdman]

Obviously not all 5-stars, 4-stars, etc. are the same. I think recruiting rankings would be a better variable to use than stars. That way you're not grouping all 5-stars together, all 4-stars together, all 3-stars together, etc. I'm guessing you went with the star approach since there are so many unranked guys on our team, however (thanks, Bz). And in regards to birdman's regression, I would use KenPom ranking as opposed to just # of wins as the dependent variable to adjust for schedule. Obviously wouldn't be a perfect model with those adjustments since rankings is an ordinal variable (and also completely subjective for recruiting rankings), but I think it would work a bit better.

I looked at this this morning, and [Redacted] totally screws up the relationship and weakens the regression, especially the 2011 and 2012 teams. With Bz, talent only explains 24% of the variation in final KP rank, but without him talent explains 87% of the variation in final KP rank. Manning slightly over performed with this years team but a rank of 125 is well with in the expected range of variation, in fact it is almost right on the line (with out Bz). In this case points below the line would be over performing and above would be under performing with respect to talent, and again Bz is yellow, Dino is orange Prosser is blue and Manning is red. Only thing this tells us is Manning's performance in relation to other recent Wake Coaches, a better perspecitve would be to look a wider variety of coaches but I don't have those data.

 

[Ayo]

Yeah, figured Bz's first 2 years would be huge outliers with such a small sample. Thanks for putting that together.

 

[RaleighTriad]

I Didn't know he returned his salary that's pretty awesome.

Anytime Ron wants to return his fat bonus checks that would be great...

Ron's hands are stained red from all the blood money he has collected from the boosters... what a joke...

 

[Azdeac]

That's the thing about Coach Knight. He could take his players and beat your players.....or he could take your players and beat his players.

I thought that was Don Shula. "He can take his'n and beat your'n and take your'n and beat his'n."

 

[deaclite]

Keep in mind , the great Wojo just got beat by Nova by 35. He finished 13-19 as well.

 

[RChildress107]

Just updated the front page. Shows a steady trend upward in talent, and except for last year’s team which vastly outperformed its talent, shows a performance in line with talent.-

And here’s the reason to be excited for next year:

With a lineup something like this:

PG: Crawford (30) BC (7), Bench (3)
SG: Woods (20), BC (13), Brown (5), Bench (2)
SF: Brown (23), Mucius (8), Hoard (5), Bench (4)
PF: Hoard (20), Mucius (7), Sarr (7), Bench (6)
C: Moore (25), Sarr (15)


Our talent score jumps to a 4.2, which is on par with pre [Redacted] talent levels.

 

[Shake]

I care much more about our win score and NCAA tournament score

 

[RChildress107]

I care much more about our win score and NCAA tournament score

Me too. Just pointing out that our team’s performance is in line with how you would expect a team with this amount of talent on paper to perform.

The talent goes up, the wins go up. Our talent is going up dramatically next year.

 

[RChildress107]

There's been a lot of handwringing about Danny Manning's coaching ability after the last three games. This strikes me as an overreaction to a small sample size, but the ensuing discussion raised some interesting questions about how much should be read into a coaches ability to "get the most" out of a team's talent level.

I've had some time on my hands (spring break) so I went through each of the last 11 seasons and calculated each teams overall talent level. I gave each player a talent score (recruiting ranking in stars + .3 for each year of experience).

Codi, for example, was a 4 star recruit and has 2 years of experience so he has a talent rating of 4.6.

I then took the weighted average for each team based on minutes played. Here are the results of the past 11 years along with wins, SRS (basketball-reference's simple rating system), and kenpom ranking.

UPDATED

2017-2018: Talent: 3.7; Wins: 9; SRS: 8.54; KP: 88
2016-2017: Talent: 3.41; Wins: 19; SRS: 14.19; KP: 36
2015-2016: Talent: 3.36; Wins: 11; SRS: 5.53; KP: 118
2014-2015: Talent: 3.16; Wins: 13; SRS: 5.19; KP: 120

2013-2014: Talent: 3.69; Wins: 17; SRS: 5.49; KP: 117
2012-2013: Talent: 3.59; Wins: 13; SRS: 3.41; KP: 137
2011-2012: Talent: 3.76; Wins: 13; SRS: -.75; KP: 211
2010-2011: Talent: 3.76; Wins: 8; SRS: -4.43; KP: 259

2009-2010: Talent: 4.17; Wins: 20; SRS: 11.45; KP: 58
2008-2009: Talent: 4.15; Wins: 24; SRS: 15.63; KP: 24
2007-2008: Talent: 3.73; Wins: 17; SRS: 9.29; KP: 73

2006-2007: Talent: 3.51; Wins: 15; SRS: 6.08; KP: 102
2005-2006: Talent: 3.96; Wins: 17; SRS: 8.16; KP: 80
2004-2005: Talent: 4.45; Wins: 27; SRS: 20.24; KP: 8

For those too lazy to go back to page 1

 

[VOTSdeac]

I think Childress gets more than 20 min per game.

 

[DCDeac]

Notre Dame looks like they'll drop their 7th straight today. Always thought Brey was a good coach, pretty shocking to see how poorly he's handling losing just 2 players. Should have had depth at those key positions ready for ACC play.

 

[CharlotteDeac1]

Notre Dame looks like they'll drop their 7th straight today. Always thought Brey was a good coach, pretty shocking to see how poorly he's handling losing just 2 players. Should have had depth at those key positions ready for ACC play.

It’s hard losing two keys players? Say it ain’t so

 

[cheeseheads12]

Notre Dame looks like they'll drop their 7th straight today. Always thought Brey was a good coach, pretty shocking to see how poorly he's handling losing just 2 players. Should have had depth at those key positions ready for ACC play.

Just 2 players? Lol.
It’s tough when one of those happens to be last year’s ACCPOY.

 

[CharlotteDeac1]

Just 2 players? Lol.
It’s tough when one of those happens to be last year’s ACCPOY.

Justin Jackson was ACCPOY last year.

 

[thatguy2016]

It’s hard losing two keys players? Say it ain’t so

please tell me you're not comparing losing two senior leaders during the season to losing two guys to the pros, one of whom everyone knew was leaving for the last month of the previous season

and fyi, Brey has lost 3 guys who started ACC games to injury this year (including his two most important players) after absorbing the loss to graduation of two other seniors

 

[Bluegrass Deac]

Losing players in season is completely different situation than losing players in the offseason.

 

[RJKarl]

Losing Dinos when we did was equivalent to losing someone in season.

 

[CharlotteDeac1]

Well first, it was a joke. Cause people say “say it ain’t so” when they’re serious a lot. Obviously it’s incredibly difficult in both situations.
Losing Dinos at the time we did may as well be the same since we had no time to replace him (with anything better than a non-starter on Marshall). Losing Collins, while rebuilding, is just as big if not bigger than any of those losses.