• Welcome to OGBoards 10.0, keep in mind that we will be making LOTS of changes to smooth out the experience here and make it as close as possible functionally to the old software, but feel free to drop suggestions or requests in the Tech Support subforum!

'17 Specials & '18 Midterms Thread

And there goes another one:

 
deactherunner said:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-democrats-senate-chances-overrated/

Pretty extensive assesment of Dems chances.
Click to expand...

It was always a long shot for Democrats to win back the Senate this year - 25 (now 26) seats to defend compared to the GOP's 8 is a daunting task. But the mere fact that the Democrats can seriously think about it, or at least think about breaking even, is a real sign of Trump's and the GOP's unpopularity among the general population (as opposed to simply their voting base), as well as the enthusiasm and drive of Democrats this year compared to Republicans. I remember, in the first few months after Trump's election, BKF kept bragging that the Democrats would really be hurting and depressed when they lost another 5, 6, or more Senate seats this year. That certainly doesn't seem to be the case right now, although it's still a long way to November.
 
Highland Deac said:
It was always a long shot for Democrats to win back the Senate this year - 25 (now 26) seats to defend compared to the GOP's 8 is a daunting task. But the mere fact that the Democrats can seriously think about it, or at least think about breaking even, is a real sign of Trump's and the GOP's unpopularity among the general population (as opposed to simply their voting base), as well as the enthusiasm and drive of Democrats this year compared to Republicans. I remember, in the first few months after Trump's election, BKF kept bragging that the Democrats would really be hurting and depressed when they lost another 5, 6, or more Senate seats this year. That certainly doesn't seem to be the case right now, although it's still a long way to November.
Click to expand...

This is perhaps a question for another thread, but overall do y'all think that the midterms this year are simply a product of the cyclical nature of politics, or is primarily due to the futility of Congress and Trump?

Obviously it can be a combination of both (and likely is), but from where I stand I think the unpopularity of Trump and the Republican-led Congress is due more to the sheer incompetency at legislating (or in Trump's case, act like a normal human being) than just the cyclical nature of politics that BKF always talked about.
 
Highland Deac said:
It was always a long shot for Democrats to win back the Senate this year - 25 (now 26) seats to defend compared to the GOP's 8 is a daunting task. But the mere fact that the Democrats can seriously think about it, or at least think about breaking even, is a real sign of Trump's and the GOP's unpopularity among the general population (as opposed to simply their voting base), as well as the enthusiasm and drive of Democrats this year compared to Republicans. I remember, in the first few months after Trump's election, BKF kept bragging that the Democrats would really be hurting and depressed when they lost another 5, 6, or more Senate seats this year. That certainly doesn't seem to be the case right now, although it's still a long way to November.
Click to expand...

On the face of it, I agree it's a tough map. That said, if purple VA is any kind of example, we are in for a wave year next year. The magnitude of the wave is the question. Of the states Dems are defending, the ones I'm most worried about are IN and MO - they're just plain red states. But if there is a wave, maybe McCaskill and Donnelly can hang on. Tester, Manchin and Heitkamp are also questionable, but I think they'll all win - Heitkamp is the weakest of that group. The 2 underrated races are WI & FL. Pubs are pouring $$ into WI than anywhere. (Is that because Tammy is a lesbian?) And I think Nelson could be weak and would like to hear from some Floridians what they think of a Nelson/Scott match-up. So that's 7 that are Dem leans or toss-ups.

The interesting Pub races are NV, AZ, probable AZ and TN. Heller has played halfway between Trump and not Trump and has pissed off both sides. I think NV is a Dem lean. TN with a strong Dem nominee is surprisingly in play and might only be a Pub lean at this point if there is a Dem wave. Then, assuming there are 2 AZ races next November, there should be a good chance to pick off 1. And if Ward and Arpaio are the 2 Pub nominees, then both seats are in play. I've also read that TX has the possibility of being in play, but I'll believe that 1 when I see it.

I really think the size of the wave depends not only on Trump's unfavorability ratings but also the state of the ACA. I think Pubs effed up badly this past year when they were unable to repeal and replace the ACA. And that was a big issue here in November even though the election was just for governor and state house races. It was far and away the #1 issue to VA voters. And Trump appears only too happy to sabotage the ACA without repealing and replacing it. Had the Pubs repealed and replaced, they probably wouldn't have hurt most consumers - probably mostly just folks with pre-existing conditions. The administration and congressional Pubs appear to be ignoring our health care system as an election issue, and if they couldn't do anything about it last year, I don't see them doing anything in an election year next year. And if their position continues to be we're going to sabotage it because it's a terrible approach to health care but we're not going to replace it, then I do believe that response will continue to do the opposite of resonate with suburban and exurb voters.
 
Periodic reminder that the governor's race map is basically the opposite of the Senate map:

522px-United_States_gubernatorial_elections%2C_2018.svg.png
 
Ward and Arpaio may damage each other so badly in the primary that McSalley wins in a walk, then destroys the Dem nominee. Hopefully one of those 2 extremes drops out before primary election day.
 
DeacWatcher said:
Ward and Arpaio may damage each other so badly in the primary that McSalley wins in a walk, then destroys the Dem nominee. Hopefully one of those 2 extremes drops out before primary election day.
Click to expand...

I'm betting 1 drops out and goes for McCain's seat once that opens up.
 
PhDeac said:
What would be the deadline for that in order to have an election by November? Looks like there are 5 Dems and 5 Pubs running for the current seat.
https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Arizona,_2018
Click to expand...

Depends on state law. I think in most states the governor can appoint a replacement till you have the special election. But elections are expensive, and if McCain were to resign or die in the next few months, I would think they'd use the same timetable to save $$. And given that those 3 are all polling around 30%, that tells me that at least 60% of AZ Pubs are crazy. Which means that Arpaio and Ward would likely win those 2 primaries.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
This is perhaps a question for another thread, but overall do y'all think that the midterms this year are simply a product of the cyclical nature of politics, or is primarily due to the futility of Congress and Trump?

Obviously it can be a combination of both (and likely is), but from where I stand I think the unpopularity of Trump and the Republican-led Congress is due more to the sheer incompetency at legislating (or in Trump's case, act like a normal human being) than just the cyclical nature of politics that BKF always talked about.
Click to expand...

Off-year elections are usually tough for the party that holds the WH, with few exceptions. The GOP was going to lose some House seats and Governor's mansions this year based on that pattern (not necessarily the Senate, though, given the odds). However, I do think what's driving this year's elections is Trump's unpopularity (really, the loathing that many people - and not all of them are Democrats - have for the man), and for the general unpopularity of the GOP's proposals on Obamacare, tax cuts, etc. The failure of the GOP Congress to transform many of their promises into law hasn't helped (the tax cut bill still isn't very popular). The fact that Trump can't seem to get above 40% approval in the polls with the economy doing as well as it is right now is a very telling sign, I think, of just how hated Trump is among a very large percentage of the population. Just as Democrats and most of the news media in 2016 underrated how truly hated Hillary Clinton was among tens of millions of people, I think the GOP is underestimating how hated Trump is among an even larger group of people. Things could change between now and November, but unless Trump's approval ratings improve substantially, I think the GOP is in real trouble. I don't think this election is so much a cyclical election as a personal one - with the person being Trump, and how voters feel about him in November will be the main factor affecting how well GOP and Democratic candidates do or don't do.
 
Last edited:
Deacsfan27 said:
This is perhaps a question for another thread, but overall do y'all think that the midterms this year are simply a product of the cyclical nature of politics, or is primarily due to the futility of Congress and Trump?

Obviously it can be a combination of both (and likely is), but from where I stand I think the unpopularity of Trump and the Republican-led Congress is due more to the sheer incompetency at legislating (or in Trump's case, act like a normal human being) than just the cyclical nature of politics that BKF always talked about.
Click to expand...

I'd say it's about 70% Trump/GOP and 30% cyclical. Midterms during the first term of a new president have been historically bad for the party in power. But I think you are seeing (and will continue to see) the complete disgust of the Trump presidency by 60-65% of the country and that disgust is what will make normally safe republican seats competitive (as evidenced in AL and VA this year).
 
Last edited:
avalon said:
Periodic reminder that the governor's race map is basically the opposite of the Senate map:

522px-United_States_gubernatorial_elections%2C_2018.svg.png
Click to expand...

One of the things Democrats desperately need to do is to rebuild their strength at the state and local levels - they currently have no bench. The GOP has loved to brag about gaining over 1,000 state legislature seats since 2010 - they dominate state legislatures and governor's mansions, and in our system of government that's led to situations like the one here in NC, and Kansas, Wisconsin, etc. If they can start winning back those legislative seats and governor's mansions, it can change everything - give the Dems some young stars for the future, help roll back many of the GOP's reactionary policy changes since 2010, and above all affect redistricting after the 2020 Census. State elections this year are at least as important as the ones in Congress, imo.
 
Highland Deac said:
One of the things Democrats desperately need to do is to rebuild their strength at the state and local levels - they currently have no bench. The GOP has loved to brag about gaining over 1,000 state legislature seats since 2010 - they dominate state legislatures and governor's mansions, and in our system of government that's led to situations like the one here in NC, and Kansas, Wisconsin, etc. If they can start winning back those legislative seats and governor's mansions, it can change everything - give the Dems some young stars for the future, help roll back many of the GOP's reactionary policy changes since 2010, and above all affect redistricting after the 2020 Census. State elections this year are at least as important as the ones in Congress, imo.
Click to expand...

Spot on
 
That strongly approve number is important. I’m guessing that tracks with the percentage of folks who will bother to vote Republican. Strong disapproval is double strong approval. That’s absurdly bad for Trump and the GOP.
 
Highland Deac said:
One of the things Democrats desperately need to do is to rebuild their strength at the state and local levels - they currently have no bench. The GOP has loved to brag about gaining over 1,000 state legislature seats since 2010 - they dominate state legislatures and governor's mansions, and in our system of government that's led to situations like the one here in NC, and Kansas, Wisconsin, etc. If they can start winning back those legislative seats and governor's mansions, it can change everything - give the Dems some young stars for the future, help roll back many of the GOP's reactionary policy changes since 2010, and above all affect redistricting after the 2020 Census. State elections this year are at least as important as the ones in Congress, imo.
Click to expand...

Absolutely, and the timing is so important.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top