https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-democrats-senate-chances-overrated/
Pretty extensive assesment of Dems chances.
Those bottom seven are also in districts Clinton won in 2016. Pod Save America is raising a fund for their eventual Dem challengers:
www.crooked.com/crooked7
It was always a long shot for Democrats to win back the Senate this year - 25 (now 26) seats to defend compared to the GOP's 8 is a daunting task. But the mere fact that the Democrats can seriously think about it, or at least think about breaking even, is a real sign of Trump's and the GOP's unpopularity among the general population (as opposed to simply their voting base), as well as the enthusiasm and drive of Democrats this year compared to Republicans. I remember, in the first few months after Trump's election, BKF kept bragging that the Democrats would really be hurting and depressed when they lost another 5, 6, or more Senate seats this year. That certainly doesn't seem to be the case right now, although it's still a long way to November.
It was always a long shot for Democrats to win back the Senate this year - 25 (now 26) seats to defend compared to the GOP's 8 is a daunting task. But the mere fact that the Democrats can seriously think about it, or at least think about breaking even, is a real sign of Trump's and the GOP's unpopularity among the general population (as opposed to simply their voting base), as well as the enthusiasm and drive of Democrats this year compared to Republicans. I remember, in the first few months after Trump's election, BKF kept bragging that the Democrats would really be hurting and depressed when they lost another 5, 6, or more Senate seats this year. That certainly doesn't seem to be the case right now, although it's still a long way to November.
Ward and Arpaio may damage each other so badly in the primary that McSalley wins in a walk, then destroys the Dem nominee. Hopefully one of those 2 extremes drops out before primary election day.
What would be the deadline for that in order to have an election by November? Looks like there are 5 Dems and 5 Pubs running for the current seat.
https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Arizona,_2018
This is perhaps a question for another thread, but overall do y'all think that the midterms this year are simply a product of the cyclical nature of politics, or is primarily due to the futility of Congress and Trump?
Obviously it can be a combination of both (and likely is), but from where I stand I think the unpopularity of Trump and the Republican-led Congress is due more to the sheer incompetency at legislating (or in Trump's case, act like a normal human being) than just the cyclical nature of politics that BKF always talked about.
This is perhaps a question for another thread, but overall do y'all think that the midterms this year are simply a product of the cyclical nature of politics, or is primarily due to the futility of Congress and Trump?
Obviously it can be a combination of both (and likely is), but from where I stand I think the unpopularity of Trump and the Republican-led Congress is due more to the sheer incompetency at legislating (or in Trump's case, act like a normal human being) than just the cyclical nature of politics that BKF always talked about.
Periodic reminder that the governor's race map is basically the opposite of the Senate map:
One of the things Democrats desperately need to do is to rebuild their strength at the state and local levels - they currently have no bench. The GOP has loved to brag about gaining over 1,000 state legislature seats since 2010 - they dominate state legislatures and governor's mansions, and in our system of government that's led to situations like the one here in NC, and Kansas, Wisconsin, etc. If they can start winning back those legislative seats and governor's mansions, it can change everything - give the Dems some young stars for the future, help roll back many of the GOP's reactionary policy changes since 2010, and above all affect redistricting after the 2020 Census. State elections this year are at least as important as the ones in Congress, imo.
One of the things Democrats desperately need to do is to rebuild their strength at the state and local levels - they currently have no bench. The GOP has loved to brag about gaining over 1,000 state legislature seats since 2010 - they dominate state legislatures and governor's mansions, and in our system of government that's led to situations like the one here in NC, and Kansas, Wisconsin, etc. If they can start winning back those legislative seats and governor's mansions, it can change everything - give the Dems some young stars for the future, help roll back many of the GOP's reactionary policy changes since 2010, and above all affect redistricting after the 2020 Census. State elections this year are at least as important as the ones in Congress, imo.