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Possible Wake Forest Coaching Candidates Analysis

RJKarl said:
I didn't say 12-12 or even 6-18...I said ONE...

KP rankings are irrelevant.

His body of work includes four out of his seven years at UNC-G coming in 5th or below in a very weak conference. It could argued be that his recent success is due to a single player.

Compare that to Gergg Marshall's time at Winthrop- 9 years - 6 times 1st place, 2 2nds and a third. Pat Kelsey - 6 years - 2- 1sts; 2 - 2nds; a third and a fifth. Nate Oats has 2 thirds and a first.

Wes MIGHT become a good coach, and in a different position, he might be a viable candidate. If we choose him now, it's out of desperation.
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KP rankings are irrelevant to what?

I don't give a shit if a team beats another team with a number next to their name simply because a bunch of SIDs filling out their boss' votes believed that a team in the ACC deserves to be ranked this week over a mid-major they've never heard of who was objectively better when looking at the statistics.

Winning a one off game is far less predictive than where your team finishes the year ranked year in and year out. Simply because a team ranked 300th upsets a top 25 team doesn't mean that team is better than a team who finished 100th and failed to beat a top 25 team. That's just basic sample size.

Again it'd be nice if he had more marquee wins at his time at UNCG but to hold this up as some sort of major red flag doesn't really pass the smell test for me personally
 
DR's position, and subsequent doubling down on said position, that Duke would consider hiring Wes as K's replacement is the early leader for dumbest board assertion of the decade.

We get it DR, you think we should hire Wes and have thought so for a long time. You are passionate about it, and that's great. You should realize, however, that there aren't a lot of metrics that place him clearly above all the other candidates we are discussing - and that is all the rest of us have to go on - we don't know him personally.
And, you don't have to take ridiculous positions like the Duke thing in order to make your argument - that just eats into your credibility.

To be clear, I think he should be on the list of candidates to be considered - I just don't see anything objectively that makes him the obvious choice.
 
KP has NJIT, Stony Brook, Brown, Coastal Carolina and others better than Wake that aren't.

He has Penn State (8-15) 30 spots ahead of Rutgers, who beat PSU at PSU). As bad as AZ St., UCLA, the real USC and fake USC are, they are way behind PSU.

There are lots of other examples.

The reality is Wes has had a lot of opportunities to beat better teams and hasn't. He doesn't have any P6 experience. It's a very, very high probability that he has few, if any, high AAU contacts. You can't dance around these extremely important facts.

He is a fall back of fall back choices.
 
You seen a lot of NJIT and Brown basketball this year?

And again, simply because one team beats another in one game doesn't mean they're better overall. Texas Southern beat Oregon in Oregon, does that mean Texas Southern is better?
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
You seen a lot of NJIT and Brown basketball this year?

And again, simply because one team beats another in one game doesn't mean they're better overall. Texas Southern beat Oregon in Oregon, does that mean Texas Southern is better?
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If a team is 8-15 and has been bad, losing a game at home to a theoretically, massively inferior team shouldn't happen.

I notice you don't address the three major points I mentioned. Each is an important qualification. You can possibly be considered if you have two of the three, maybe even a very one of them. Wes has none of the three.

Add to those, he has no national reputation. Coaches, kids, parents, AAU people have no idea who he is. This means it will take extra time to turn the program around as those people will wait until he proves he belongs. We don't have the luxury of time.
 
Who beyond the home run tier of coaches we will go after does have national recognition? This is exactly the same point we discussed in the last 48 hours - the “mid major tier” is not loaded with people who have national recognition. And those that are in this area that do (Amaker for instance) haven’t experienced success at higher levels even though they are well known.

ETA: the difference between Penn State and Rutgers isn’t even that large. PSU is projected as a one point underdog at Rutgers with a 46 percent chance of winning the rematch.
 
RacerDeac said:
The prevailing "wisdom" not that long ago was that parity meant that you could win an NCAA Championship from anywhere and there was less and less reason for coaches to seek P6 jobs. The idea that a Wofford could get overlooked for a bottom half of the conference P6 team means the Wake job isn't nearly as bad as many assume it to be. Besides the X-factor of Wellman, few schools can match our TV money/budget, conference, location, facilities, etc. Even in a bad year, we made it to the tournament
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Absolutely spot on. As I've said before basically every year more than half of the ACC is going to make the tournament. It's not going to have down years to the degree that the Pac-12 is having this year or the SEC and even Big Ten have had in the past due to the depth and quality of programs.

A mid-tier ACC job is a great job as a result
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Who beyond the home run tier of coaches we will go after does have national recognition? This is exactly the same point we discussed in the last 48 hours - the “mid major tier” is not loaded with people who have national recognition. And those that are in this area that do (Amaker for instance) haven’t experienced success at higher levels even though they are well known.

ETA: the difference between Penn State and Rutgers isn’t even that large. PSU is projected as a one point underdog at Rutgers with a 46 percent chance of winning the rematch.
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AGAIN, you are missing the point. Wes fails on ALL of those important points. You keep on trying extract one issue from the group. I specifically said in another post that the right guy could miss one of those three points or maybe even two if he was really special. Wes misses them all.

But Amaker has been at a P6 school. He has recruited Top 100 players to Harvard. Wes has neither of those qualifications.

However, Amaker would be near the bottom of my list due to his not building on his previous success at Harvard. His last three full seasons and start of this year would push him down, if not totally off my list. Comparing Wes to him is like would you rather bet 0 or 00 on the roulette wheel. They pay well but very, very rarely.

As you know, I don't give a rat's ass about KP rankings or predictions.

Remember, for years you haven't believed there is such a thing a a hot hand in basketball.
 
I don’t fail to grasp those points I just wasn’t talking about them. Miller has a similar resume and trajectory to lots of other coaches wake is going to consider. His age, geographic location, and NC basketball knowledge puts him ahead of those other coaches IMO. I’d love to see it but Shaka isn’t walking through that door.
 
And if you don’t value KP you’re just missing a large evaluative tool. If an AD didn’t use it and metrics in finding a coach, I would find that to be a fireable offense.
 
RJKarl said:
I didn't say 12-12 or even 6-18...I said ONE...

KP rankings are irrelevant.

His body of work includes four out of his seven years at UNC-G coming in 5th or below in a very weak conference. It could argued be that his recent success is due to a single player.

Compare that to Gergg Marshall's time at Winthrop- 9 years - 6 times 1st place, 2 2nds and a third. Pat Kelsey - 6 years - 2- 1sts; 2 - 2nds; a third and a fifth. Nate Oats has 2 thirds and a first.

Wes MIGHT become a good coach, and in a different position, he might be a viable candidate. If we choose him now, it's out of desperation.
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I am unsure about Wes, but the above is a bunch of BS as the SoCon is eons better than the Big South conference.

I live in Spartanburg and have seen Wofford multiple times this year and they are damn good. Mike Young is a heck of a coach and has Won the Socon's NCAA bid on 4 other occasions, but this may be his best squad yet. They blitzed UNCG earlier this year in Greensboro by like 25. Unlike world wide Wes, Young has beaten top 25 teams including AT UNC last year. That is something Clemson hasn't done in some 58+ years.

I am not advocating for Mike Young either as he would almost certainly pass on the Wake job. He is 55 years old and very comfortable in Spartanburg and can stay at Wofford as long as he likes.

Miller checks some boxes but I think Wake can do better and should aim higher.
 
Neither Shaka nor Musselman have any place on a list of candidates as neither would consider Wake. We screwed the pooch on Shaka and it's extremely rare that we'd ever get a second chance. If Marshall doesn't go to UCLA, we'd have to pay him Top 5 money to get him to leave Wichita as he is making $3.5M there and has far less pressure.

Putting Wojo on a list is ludicrous. You might as well put Izzo on the list. Wojo isn't moving anywhere until K's successor is named. Maybe, if we offered him $8M/year for ten years, he'd consider it, but that's not happening.

Other than UCLA, what better job that will be available will be open? Oats is not unrealistic. Neither is Matta if he is into returning. Each is light years ahead of HOF Wes.

Who cares about geography if he hasn't found any local diamonds in the rough (Alonso is hardly local) who could have started or played 20 mpg in the ACC? It's not like he's only been at UNC-G for a year or two. This is his eighth year. By accident, he should have done this.

If we hire him, it will show the incompetence of our AD and university president again. He could become excellent, but he has done little to nothing to show it thus far.
 
DR is on his own level of undefeated even above undefeated PhD since he has two outrageous classifications that would make Wake basketball good. First, Wake needs to hire Wes, a crazy notion coming out of the Skip era but after the Buzz and DM shitfest it’s possible to entertain this idea. Now the rub is that Wes could be the greatest coach to ever exist and DR could gloat for being right for the rest of his existence however with the high likelihood of failure he has his out, we don’t play in front of a new 100 person arena on campus. There’s no way Wake is hiring Wes and building a new arena and therefore DR can never be proven to be the fool he might be for being so passionately all in for Wes.
 
Has Chris Beard done too well at Texas Tech to be a candidate?
 
Also, I still think Russell Turner is a better choice than Wes Miller. Russell has Wake ties as well, and has finished 1st or second in his conference 4 of last 5 years.
 
If 5 really smart dudes, went into a room in Seattle and came up with the best coach for Wake it wouldn’t be Miller, Kelsey, or Turner.

The reason we know they are great can’t be revealed on paper. We have info others don’t.
 
donaldross said:
If 5 really smart dudes, went into a room in Seattle and came up with the best coach for Wake it wouldn’t be Miller, Kelsey, or Turner.

The reason we know they are great can’t be revealed on paper. We have info others don’t.
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I think you're full of shit, personally, but I enjoy your posts. With that said, you can't just leave that as is and not go any further...see my first sentence.
 
ManhassetDeac said:
I honestly think that if Wes Miller was included in the mid-major tier instead of his own tier above the other mid-major coaches, people wouldn't be getting so angry. He's not the home run hire in terms of resume, but he's probably up there as the best we can hope to get after the last decade.
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Why would we settle for Miller?

We need a home run hire. We cannot take a consecutive third strike on someone who is unproven.

Plus, he has already turned down Wake in the past by attending school with the blue goats.

Does anyone have proof that Skip did not offer a walk on position to the son of the person that funded the on-campus basketball practice facility?

This rumor has been posted and quoted on this board for years as the gospel but I find this hard to believe. There is always room for a walk-on. Skip would not go out of his way to offend a major donor by refusing to find a place for his son on the team.
 
SkyDivingDeacon said:
I think you're full of shit, personally, but I enjoy your posts. With that said, you can't just leave that as is and not go any further...see my first sentence.
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It's such a crock of shit. There's no way those dudes have some mysticism about them that's gonna make them great coaches, and dudes with better track records don't.

Lazy DR has just heard of and in some cases personally knows those three, but he doesn't bother to read up on better candidates
 
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