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Possible Wake Forest Coaching Candidates Analysis

birdman said:
There is no sure thing in any prediction, but ph is suggesting that coaches who get a mid major into the top 50 have a higher likelihood to succeed at a p6 than ones outside the top 50. Some fail anyway, and some coaches in the top 150 succeed regardless; there a counter examples for either case, but generally speaking, prior success is a good predictor of future success.
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I would agree with the final part...prior success is a predictor of future success. Absolutely. I guess my dispute is that Top 50 KenPom isn't the best way to measure prior success. Some mid-major leagues don't have the ability to push into the Top 50. So it is better, IMO, to compare the success of a coach within the context of their situation. Personally I'd rather focus on trajectory and where they took over a program and where it is currently. Let me use a football analogy....I think Clawson is a better football coach than Dave Doren. I figure many folks here would agree. But if there were a KenPom of sorts in football, Doren's time at Northern Illinois would be higher ranked that Clawon's at Bowling Green, right? But Clawson took over a moribound program and grew it. Doren took over Jerry Kill's program that was already rolling. Anyway, I do agree with the predictor of prior success. I'm just skeptical of KenPom as the predictor...actually I'm skeptical of it in general. I'm more convinced by the ability of someone to build a program up.
 
ChrisL68 said:
Do you think Manning had other suitors at that time they were willing to pay him over 2 million dollars a year to coach a basketball team? I mean he hadn't had enough success to get another job it was basically a contract just for recruiting purposes but for any extension you got to give him some security which is the couple of years severance that he's getting for not getting the job done because he he wasn't successful
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I think there's a LOWF-ness that permeates the AD and the fan base. The thought that someone better will come along and potentially poach him. Maybe it's residue for Wellman from Skip getting lured by Cincy and Grobe by Nebraska. Wellman has shown incredible belief in his own hires once they've shown some success, so it isn't that hard for me to envision him wanting to do whatever he can to keep them in place.

But seriously, this LOWFness like the doofi posting on BSD that we are beneath guys like Oats and Matta needs to stop. I understand it's been a very rough decade, but this is still a great job
 
wsc8521s said:
I think there's a LOWF-ness that permeates the AD and the fan base. The thought that someone better will come along and potentially poach him. Maybe it's residue for Wellman from Skip getting lured by Cincy and Grobe by Nebraska. Wellman has shown incredible belief in his own hires once they've shown some success, so it isn't that hard for me to envision him wanting to do whatever he can to keep them in place.

But seriously, this LOWFness like the doofi posting on BSD that we are beneath guys like Oats and Matta needs to stop. I understand it's been a very rough decade, but this is still a great job
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Don't you mean Skip getting lured by Pitt and Grobe by Arkansas?

What makes Wake a "great job" now?
 
Yes for Skip with Pitt, and Arkansas as well as Nebraska for Grobe, though Arkansas did come closer, obviously.

It's a great job because it's a program that has proven it can win pretty big in the past, has many NBA alumni to call upon, it's a great place to make the NCAA Tournament (and be placed strongly in the field) from the ACC, is in an area that loves the sport and has had great fan support when things have gone right.

The ACC point I think is an important one -- it can be anathema to think of conference rivals as anything but foes, but in sports where a ton of teams make the tournament like basketball/baseball/soccer, a strong conference actually helps because it provides more opportunity for really good wins over the course of a season that will impress the committee. We came in 10th out of 15 in 2017 and made the dance. Syracuse finished in the same position the year before and made the Final Four.

I just fail to see a reason why we can't at least attain the levels that football schools like Miami or FSU have obtained in the last decade, if we can lure the right coach
 
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Ayo said:
I won't argue with those who think Wake is a better job. It's extremely close to me. On another day I might think Wake is the better job. But if you think that's a "terrible take" you're just being delusional. The country club atmosphere certainly isn't for some players -- it's partly why Crawford is no longer here. LSU is probably easier to recruit to. They can pay more if you're good at your job, even with the clear priorities to football. Again, won't argue with those who think Wake. It's very close to me.
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Crawford came from Gonzaga H.S. and every time I saw him around campus was dressed like a prep school kid. I think he left because he was tired of the academic side of things, and also had people in his ear incorrectly telling him he was an NBA player.
 
netflixnchildres said:
Crawford came from Gonzaga H.S. and every time I saw him around campus was dressed like a prep school kid. I think he left because he was tired of the academic side of things, and also had people in his ear incorrectly telling him he was an NBA player.
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Losing probably didn't help either.
 
ChrisL68 said:
Losing probably didn't help either.
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Yeah its worth noting the players looked miserable that year and there were rumors of team chemistry issues. Also possible Crawford saw the writing on the wall with Manning and knew staying coached by him was detrimental to his development.
 
if I know our wall-eyed Ronnie, he's either gonna stick with Danny just to show everybody who's the boss, or he is going to be overcome by a compelling compulsion to hire the most expensive natural-born lifetime assistant coach he can find, and he'll do it too
 
netflixnchildres said:
Crawford came from Gonzaga H.S. and every time I saw him around campus was dressed like a prep school kid. I think he left because he was tired of the academic side of things, and also had people in his ear incorrectly telling him he was an NBA player.
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I said "partly". From DCDeac a while back. Crawford knew he had no chance of getting drafted.

DCDeac said:
File this in the "absurdly random and probably bullshit" category but this question reminded me - we sold our townhouse in Alexandria a few months ago and the guys that moved the staging furniture in saw my Wake hat and gave me a "Go Deacs!" while we were waiting for the decor folks. They said their boy went there and started on the basketball team. I asked what position, they said point guard. I was like, you guys are buddies of Crawford? They said "hell yeah we hang out whenever he's in town." This was right after the draft, so I had to ask if he really thought he was going to get drafted. They said hell no, just felt like he'd done his time playing at the country club, knew he'd get paid to play somewhere. Plus no more fucking classes.

I think the answer to the question is that Manning sells his name recognition, his NBA ties, knowing how to get guys paid to play - but none of it really has anything to do with Wake Forest. He never talks about Wake like Clawson talks about Wake. Kids not on track to get paid leave. Kids ready to get paid and give zero shits about Wake leave.
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Wake's vibe doesn't appeal to everybody. I don't think that's a very controversial take.
 
Ayo said:
I won't argue with those who think Wake is a better job. It's extremely close to me. On another day I might think Wake is the better job. But if you think that's a "terrible take" you're just being delusional. The country club atmosphere certainly isn't for some players -- it's partly why Crawford is no longer here. LSU is probably easier to recruit to. They can pay more if you're good at your job, even with the clear priorities to football. Again, won't argue with those who think Wake. It's very close to me.
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We've gotta make some efforts on this. I know this might sound ridiculous to some. But when I came back for homecoming in 2016, I was amazed at how the fashion of the student body hadn't changed in seemingly 15 years. Living in an urban area, I was shocked to see that the student body hadn't picked up on any of the modern trends. Then when I went to the multi-year class Homecoming tailgate the next day, it was one of the whitest events I've been around in the last number of years.

I can only imagine how minority athletes must feel in this kind of setting. I hope my perspective, based on a small sample, was incorrect. But it was like Wake was frozen in time.
 
wsc8521s said:
Yes for Skip with Pitt, and Arkansas as well as Nebraska for Grobe, though Arkansas did come closer, obviously.

It's a great job because it's a program that has proven it can win pretty big in the past, has many NBA alumni to call upon, it's a great place to make the NCAA Tournament (and be placed strongly in the field) from the ACC, is in an area that loves the sport and has had great fan support when things have gone right.

The ACC point I think is an important one -- it can be anathema to think of conference rivals as anything but foes, but in sports where a ton of teams make the tournament like basketball/baseball/soccer, a strong conference actually helps because it provides more opportunity for really good wins over the course of a season that will impress the committee. We came in 10th out of 15 in 2017 and made the dance. Syracuse finished in the same position the year before and made the Final Four.

I just fail to see a reason why we can't at least attain the levels that football schools like Miami or FSU have obtained in the last decade, if we can lure the right coach
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I agree with this re basketball. But Syracuse's success in the tourney is largely a product of teams never having faced, and not having time to prepare for Syracuse's zone. Syracuse has been a middling ACC team every year other than the first year. But they've had success in the tourney. The more frequently teams play the zone, the better they get at playing it. That doesn't apply to most teams in the tourney. And when Syracuse has played an ACC team in the tourney, I'm pretty sure they've lost.

As for football and being similar to Miami and FSU, get real. Go set foot on large football powerhouse campuses and you'll understand that Wake is not realistically going to be on that level. It's just just a different ball game altogether. Miami in the 80's was a unique situation. I'm not saying Wake can't be good and have year every four or five when they are competing for an ACC title. But expecting Wake to be a top-10 annual team in football is absolutely foolish.

There really are no reasons why Wake can't be an excellent basketball team perennially.
 
MichDeac25 said:
I agree with this re basketball. But Syracuse's success in the tourney is largely a product of teams never having faced, and not having time to prepare for Syracuse's zone. Syracuse has been a middling ACC team every year other than the first year. But they've had success in the tourney. The more frequently teams play the zone, the better they get at playing it. That doesn't apply to most teams in the tourney. And when Syracuse has played an ACC team in the tourney, I'm pretty sure they've lost.

As for football and being similar to Miami and FSU, get real. Go set foot on large football powerhouse campuses and you'll understand that Wake is not realistically going to be on that level. It's just just a different ball game altogether. Miami in the 80's was a unique situation. I'm not saying Wake can't be good and have year every four or five when they are competing for an ACC title. But expecting Wake to be a top-10 annual team in football is absolutely foolish.

There really are no reasons why Wake can't be an excellent basketball team perennially.
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Pretty sure you missed his point about the football schools and how it relates to their success in basketball.
 
Yeah, no prob. I was talking about Miami and FSU's basketball success.

One of Syracuse's big wins in 2016 was over Virginia. FSU and 'cuse both finished .500 or worse in the ACC last year and both made the Sweet 16, FSU making the Elite 8.

Just gotta get in the dance, and the ACC provides ample opportunity to do just that
 
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Former Skip Prosser Man of the Year Award Winner, Joe Mihalich, just swept Earl Grant.

Niagara
Hofstra (pick them in your Brackets)

Mihalich >>> Manning
 
I think the best guess on the $18 million is that the total value of Danny's contract through 2025 plus all potential incentives is in the ballpark of $18 million. I also think there's a decent portion of that which is guaranteed with a chance that it would all be guaranteed if incentives were hit. Given that it's not likely (m)any incentives were hit, if we wanna can him I'd say it's around 8 digits still to get out of the rest of the contract. Of course these things can always be negotiated.
 
Complacent Deac said:
Former Skip Prosser Man of the Year Award Winner, Joe Mihalich, just swept Earl Grant.

Niagara
Hofstra (pick them in your Brackets)

Mihalich >>> Manning
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Hofstra will be interesting in March if they make it. Having seen them play a solid amount, they have an elite offense and a terrible defense. If they drop one more game and win the CAA, they'll be 29-5 entering the Tournament and probably around 60th in KP. This would have them as a 12 or 13 seed (maybe an 11 just based on the 29 wins?) but at 60th or so in KP would likely have them as one of the worst 11 or 12 seeds and one of the better 13 seeds. Overall I don't think they're a team who is going to make much noise in March simply because their defense is awful but we'll see. If they get a good 5/12 matchup they may spring an upset if the 5 seed is overrated (think a Marquette or Cincy matchup).
 
I like the idea of Kelsey, but I'd only target him if we strike out with bigger names. We are at a period where another bad hire may sink the basketball program forever. And Kelsey hasn't lit the world on fire at Winthrop, but he has been more successful than redacted and Manning were at their previous jobs, so there's that.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Hofstra will be interesting in March if they make it. Having seen them play a solid amount, they have an elite offense and a terrible defense. If they drop one more game and win the CAA, they'll be 29-5 entering the Tournament and probably around 60th in KP. This would have them as a 12 or 13 seed (maybe an 11 just based on the 29 wins?) but at 60th or so in KP would likely have them as one of the worst 11 or 12 seeds and one of the better 13 seeds. Overall I don't think they're a team who is going to make much noise in March simply because their defense is awful but we'll see. If they get a good 5/12 matchup they may spring an upset if the 5 seed is overrated (think a Marquette or Cincy matchup).
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Good info. Thx. Highly unlikely they lose 1 in regular season, assuming they win CAA tourney, the 30-4 record is impressive.

I mean, we have Manning, and freaking Hofstra is going 30-4!
 
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