There is no sure thing in any prediction, but ph is suggesting that coaches who get a mid major into the top 50 have a higher likelihood to succeed at a p6 than ones outside the top 50. Some fail anyway, and some coaches in the top 150 succeed regardless; there a counter examples for either case, but generally speaking, prior success is a good predictor of future success.
I would agree with the final part...prior success is a predictor of future success. Absolutely. I guess my dispute is that Top 50 KenPom isn't the best way to measure prior success. Some mid-major leagues don't have the ability to push into the Top 50. So it is better, IMO, to compare the success of a coach within the context of their situation. Personally I'd rather focus on trajectory and where they took over a program and where it is currently. Let me use a football analogy....I think Clawson is a better football coach than Dave Doren. I figure many folks here would agree. But if there were a KenPom of sorts in football, Doren's time at Northern Illinois would be higher ranked that Clawon's at Bowling Green, right? But Clawson took over a moribound program and grew it. Doren took over Jerry Kill's program that was already rolling. Anyway, I do agree with the predictor of prior success. I'm just skeptical of KenPom as the predictor...actually I'm skeptical of it in general. I'm more convinced by the ability of someone to build a program up.