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Possible Wake Forest Coaching Candidates Analysis

netflixnchildres said:
Considering kenpom didn't exist until 2002 you'd be cutting out a lot of years of the NCAA tournaments history.
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Well if this is the type of coach trajectory anyone thinks a P6 school should be hiring, then surely there should be at least some similar comparisons in the last two decades right?
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
I can't even think of another coach similar to Odom to compare him to. Massive upset in the NCAAT, three or four years in, no other head coaching experience, never had a top 150 team. Let me know if anyone thinks of a team and we can compare how things shook out for that coach moving forward.
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Two that come to mind are Brett Reed from Lehigh and Anthony Evans at Norfolk State. Both coaches their teams to 15-2 upsets in 2012 (Lehigh over Duke and Norfolk over Mizzou). Not sure about the top 150 pet with Reed and Lehigh. Pretty sure Norfolk State was terrible for a while. Both were 5 years in to HC when their upsets happened.

Reed is still at Lehigh and seems to be doing ok. Evans is stinking it up at FIU.
 
Lehigh was definitely top 100 (maybe even top 75 - they were terribly seeded). Looks like Anthony Evans is a good pick for criteria. Year 5 and they were 183 when they upset Missouri. At present, as you mentioned, he's at FIU who hasn't cracked the top 200 in his tenure.

I thought Mercer as well, but they were top 100 when they beat Duke (and they just fired that coach in the last few days as well).
 
RacerDeac said:
RJ levels of ignorance will not aid you in this discussion.

KP 40
BPI 45
NET 49
Sagarin 43
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Ummm, I think you proved my point. Using any of these to compare across leagues, is flawed. Apples to oranges. Of course an ACC or Big 10 team will have a high rating. Duh. And if the SoCon is a better league than AE, then of course their ratings will be higher. Duh. This is not rocket science. The flaw in the KP worshippers argument is that there is a predictive correlation somehow between computer ranking and being a good coach. Any of these middling P6 coaches have higher KenPoms than mid-major guys. Does that mean they are a better coach? Of course not, it means they aren't getting it done in a good league. So, since I'm ignorant, can you explain to me why we're not pursuing Pat Chambers hard?
 
Deacs9394 said:
Ummm, I think you proved my point. Using any of these to compare across leagues, is flawed. Apples to oranges. Of course an ACC or Big 10 team will have a high rating. Duh. And if the SoCon is a better league than AE, then of course their ratings will be higher. Duh. This is not rocket science. The flaw in the KP worshippers argument is that there is a predictive correlation somehow between computer ranking and being a good coach. Any of these middling P6 coaches have higher KenPoms than mid-major guys. Does that mean they are a better coach? Of course not, it means they aren't getting it done in a good league. So, since I'm ignorant, can you explain to me why we're not pursuing Pat Chambers hard?
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Pat Chambers would be a better choice than Odom.
 
Frosty said:
Pat Chambers would be a better choice than Odom.
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The living Chambers' Brothers would be a better choice than Odom...at least to post game party would be fun.

Their opus should be Wake's theme song.

 
Deacs9394 said:
Ummm, I think you proved my point. Using any of these to compare across leagues, is flawed. Apples to oranges. Of course an ACC or Big 10 team will have a high rating. Duh. And if the SoCon is a better league than AE, then of course their ratings will be higher. Duh. This is not rocket science. The flaw in the KP worshippers argument is that there is a predictive correlation somehow between computer ranking and being a good coach. Any of these middling P6 coaches have higher KenPoms than mid-major guys. Does that mean they are a better coach? Of course not, it means they aren't getting it done in a good league. So, since I'm ignorant, can you explain to me why we're not pursuing Pat Chambers hard?
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This isn't true though. Middling P6 coaches don't have teams that have higher KP's than mid-major guys just as a matter of course. Wofford, Lipscomb, Belmont, Liberty, Saint Mary's, Murray State, Furman, Toledo, and New Mexico State are all in the top 60. The ACC has like six teams worse than 60th.

The point is not that there is a predictive correlation between a higher computer ranking and being a "good coach" but rather this is a better relative method than simply looking at wins. The computer rankings take into account all the games that are played (they don't emphasize one big win in the NCAAT) and they are forward looking (how good a team is moving forward, rather than an indication of where a team should be ranked based on the past).

Further, KP adjusts for strength of schedule in its efficiency based on both offensive and defensive points per possession of opponent. The entire point of these systems are to remove the apples and oranges comparison of "is UMBC as good as Belmont?" and normalizes information across the board.

I'm yet to hear a legitimate criticism of KP or other advanced stats that are substantively rooted (addressing methodology) in comparison to those criticizing outcomes ("well Penn State can't be a top 40 team!") Well why not, what is it that KP is specifically calculating incorrectly to get this result?
 
Pilchard said:
Irrelevant. WF has got to get out of the legacy preference business. It cost us with the Bz hire, when Wellman picked a candidate that would agree to keep all of the old assistants on the staff, and it backfired again when WF hired Manning, at least in part because he agreed to keep Chill on the staff. WF needs to hire the coach that affords the program the best chance to be relevant again. I am a GDO fan. Miss those days, but the fact that a potential candidate is GDO's son provides no assurances that Ryan Odom will return WF to glory, just like keeping Rusty or Chill on the staff meant nothing over the past decade.

Ryan Odom or Wes Miller or Nate Oats or John Brannen need to evaluated on their own merit, and not the merit of their family.
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I agree. If you read my post more closely, I think it is an added bonus not a deciding factor.
 
I hope we do better than GDO's one ACCT win in non-Tim Duncan years or his .366 conference winning percentage at South Carolina.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
This isn't true though. Middling P6 coaches don't have teams that have higher KP's than mid-major guys just as a matter of course. Wofford, Lipscomb, Belmont, Liberty, Saint Mary's, Murray State, Furman, Toledo, and New Mexico State are all in the top 60. The ACC has like six teams worse than 60th.

The point is not that there is a predictive correlation between a higher computer ranking and being a "good coach" but rather this is a better relative method than simply looking at wins. The computer rankings take into account all the games that are played (they don't emphasize one big win in the NCAAT) and they are forward looking (how good a team is moving forward, rather than an indication of where a team should be ranked based on the past).

Further, KP adjusts for strength of schedule in its efficiency based on both offensive and defensive points per possession of opponent. The entire point of these systems are to remove the apples and oranges comparison of "is UMBC as good as Belmont?" and normalizes information across the board.

I'm yet to hear a legitimate criticism of KP or other advanced stats that are substantively rooted (addressing methodology) in comparison to those criticizing outcomes ("well Penn State can't be a top 40 team!") Well why not, what is it that KP is specifically calculating incorrectly to get this result?
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So is Pat Chambers a better coach than Wes Miller?
 
I would put Wes ahead of Chambers because Wes has taken a team from a low major into the top 100. Penn State, while not great historically either, has far greater resources and facilities than UNCG does. That said, Chambers has Penn State with back to back top 50 seasons and yes I still think he'll be fired. We've seen what Chambers did at a P6 school - took a team from the mid-100's of KP to a top fifty team but we have no idea what Wes can do. I'll say Wes' trajectory and the uncertainty of what he can accomplish at a top level puts him ahead of Chambers at this point as far as Wake hiring someone goes.

You can't hire Chambers though because you can't sell that to a fan base. The average fan just looks at the name, sees they got fired from Penn State, and looks at the win loss record before saying it's not an inspiring hire.
 
RJKarl said:
I hope we do better than GDO's one ACCT win in non-Tim Duncan years or his .366 conference winning percentage at South Carolina.
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There's two things I get from this...

1. I should have been more offended when Racer compared my ignorace to yours. At first I thought it was witty...now I know how much of a bash that was.

2. You're a typical self-loathing Wake fan who finds the flaw in any kind of success. Yeah, I hated winning those ACCs and going to 7 straight NCAAs and beating Duke 5 straight times in Cameron. Fuck you Dave Odom!
 
In Numbers' world. KP counts more than Ws/Ls. Sorry, that's BS.
 
RJKarl said:
In Numbers' world. KP counts more than Ws/Ls. Sorry, that's BS.
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I mean if you go 5-25 against the most difficult schedule in the country and lost only close games while the other team went 10-20 against the easiest schedule in the country, then yeah I'm gonna look to another metric to help me decipher why one team won 5 games and the other won 10.

I mean Hofstra must be better than Duke, Michigan State, and Virginia Tech because they have more wins right?
 
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Wakeforest22890 said:
I mean if you go 5-25 against the most difficult schedule in the country and lost only close games while the other team went 10-20 against the easiest schedule in the country, then yeah I'm gonna look to another metric to help me decipher why one team won 5 games and the other won 10.
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Saying PSU had the most difficult schedule in the country is total bullshit. Since every position you take starts with this insanity, your stance is based in quicksand.

You bring up insane comparisons. We aren't talking about comparing a P6 losing schedule to a Metro Atlantic team.

BTW, Chambers has had eight years at PSU. He has one .500 year, one .389 and six years at or below .350 in conference. That sucks...
 
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