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Non-Political Coronavirus Thread

2&2 Slider To Leyritz said:
Yet the number of national total deaths has nonetheless plummeted week over week even accounting for that lag time. I can't figure out how to snapshot and post a dynamic table, but both the table and underlying data are here, updated as of July 1 for the week ending 6/27:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

Cue incoming Rafi Bomb to claim that death certificate data is not accurate, despite now having over three months of it to incorporate lag time.

rafi-bomb-rafibomb-gif-9309701


But we've moved the goalposts to where now everyone is freaking the fuck out about cases, when the number of deaths has fallen off significantly despite the rise in cases. Clearly that is attributable to better treatment methods, a lower mortality rate of the virus, and better isolation of the most vulnerable. But that isn't the #science and #experts that the death to the rubes circle jerk wants to hear.
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That gif in the next post is pretty good.

You're projecting - no moving goal posts for me. COVID deaths are missed (see the article in JAMA yesterday showing about 20% more deaths that should be attributed to COVID), but I don't see a reason that number should change over time. In fact, I think the mis-attributed deaths should be lower now because we have better testing. The falling death rate is really, really good news. I think the lower death rate is because hospitals are not overwhelmed, treatment is better, and more young people are being infected. I do think we'll see an uptick in deaths over the next 3 weeks because hospitalizations are up in many states.
 
Rafi said:
That gif in the next post is pretty good.

You're projecting - no moving goal posts for me. COVID deaths are missed (see the article in JAMA yesterday showing about 20% more deaths that should be attributed to COVID), but I don't see a reason that number should change over time. In fact, I think the mis-attributed deaths should be lower now because we have better testing. The falling death rate is really, really good news. I think the lower death rate is because hospitals are not overwhelmed, treatment is better, and more young people are being infected. I do think we'll see an uptick in deaths over the next 3 weeks because hospitalizations are up in many states.
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I think what is important is that not only is the death rate falling (which can be Trumped away by the "we're just testing more"), but the actual pure number of deaths is falling despite the rising number of cases. So it is not just the increased cases compared against a static or slower-increasing number of deaths driving the rate, but the number of actual deaths is decreasing despite everything else increasing, which is what is helping to lower the death rate.
 
2&2 Slider To Leyritz said:
I think what is important is that not only is the death rate falling (which can be Trumped away by the "we're just testing more"), but the actual pure number of deaths is falling despite the rising number of cases. So it is not just the increased cases compared against a static or slower-increasing number of deaths driving the rate, but the number of actual deaths is decreasing despite everything else increasing, which is what is helping to lower the death rate.
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Absolutely. We went from 2000 deaths per day to about 600 now. But I am concerned that number is going to start going back up in the next few weeks, given the hospitalization numbers in some states.
 
What is the point of 2&2 constantly football spiking based on half truths? Every week it’s gloating on some sort of misread data point out of context. Maybe a rube can’t get the nuance between timing of positive tests vs hospitalization capacity vs deaths but I’d expect 2&2 as a non 8xdeac can either figure it out or at least appreciate that it’s a complex situation. Or maybe not. There were some real airheads in my class at wake too.
 
2&2 Slider To Leyritz said:
I think what is important is that not only is the death rate falling (which can be Trumped away by the "we're just testing more"), but the actual pure number of deaths is falling despite the rising number of cases. So it is not just the increased cases compared against a static or slower-increasing number of deaths driving the rate, but the number of actual deaths is decreasing despite everything else increasing, which is what is helping to lower the death rate.
Click to expand...

From what i have read, I think that Rafi is correct. This new wave is made up with a much younger base than what was seen previously. Their death rate is much lower then say a nursing home, which initially was a hot-bed area. I also think that a lot of older people are doing a better job of protecting themselves.

Here in Nashville we are going back to Phase 2 tomorrow. The Mayor is attributing the new wave to the re-opening of bars on Broadway. I do believe that Ph was correct (tunnels thread) that:

Inside + No Mask = high risk
Inside + Mask = some risk
Outside + No Mask = some risk
Outside + Mask = low risk

From what i have read, the severity of C-19 depends on quantity of exposure. they described quantity in a variety of ways, but being inside without a mask and a recirculating air system will cause some of the highest exposure potential. At least here in Nashville, it is a greater amount of young people going to the bars and restaurants (inside eating).
 
Death rates from Covid-19 are not falling everywhere in the US, or uniformly, of course.
 
2&2 Slider To Leyritz said:
Yet the number of national total deaths has nonetheless plummeted week over week even accounting for that lag time. I can't figure out how to snapshot and post a dynamic table, but both the table and underlying data are here, updated as of July 1 for the week ending 6/27:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

Cue incoming Rafi Bomb to claim that death certificate data is not accurate, despite now having over three months of it to incorporate lag time.

rafi-bomb-rafibomb-gif-9309701


But we've moved the goalposts to where now everyone is freaking the fuck out about cases, when the number of deaths has fallen off significantly despite the rise in cases. Clearly that is attributable to better treatment methods, a lower mortality rate of the virus, and better isolation of the most vulnerable. But that isn't the #science and #experts that the death to the rubes circle jerk wants to hear.
Click to expand...

well there was a link I read the other day that said coronavirus deaths have likely been undercounted by 95 fucking thousand deaths.
 
06deacon said:
What is the point of 2&2 constantly football spiking based on half truths? Every week it’s gloating on some sort of misread data point out of context. Maybe a rube can’t get the nuance between timing of positive tests vs hospitalization capacity vs deaths but I’d expect 2&2 as a non 8xdeac can either figure it out or at least appreciate that it’s a complex situation. Or maybe not. There were some real airheads in my class at wake too.
Click to expand...

I understand it completely. In my mind, it is okay to recognize that it is a serious situation that has affected and will continue to affect and kill a lot of people, while also recognizing that the media hype around it often runs in the wrong direction, and this Board tends to follow said media hype. You all have no problem glazing over the posts of the one dumbass who just posts bare links to whatever sky-is-falling nonsense gets shat into his feed, yet if somebody posts any data or reports indicating that it might not be as bad as portrayed by the media you react as if it cannot possibly be true.

Did you look at the link to the CDC data? Accounting for the timing between positive deaths and death, and deaths and death certificate issuance, the number of deaths is still going down, despite the increase in positive cases (as Rafi agreed). How are you disputing that? Who is the airhead? It is only #science when it fits your narrative and you believe it, right?
 
stugotz said:
well there was a link I read the other day that said coronavirus deaths have likely been undercounted by 95 fucking thousand deaths.
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Well since you read a link it must be true! Fuck the actual data from the CDC, your link is the conclusive authority on the matter. This, ladies and gentlemen, is #science.
 
2&2 Slider To Leyritz said:
Well since you read a link it must be true! Fuck the actual data from the CDC, your link is the conclusive authority on the matter. This, ladies and gentlemen, is #science.
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Trump turning the CDC into a propaganda machine is perhaps his greatest gift.
 
You do you. The Karens on nextdoor must love how you cut through the bullshit to make sure we reopen freedom ASAP
 
2&2 Slider To Leyritz said:
Don't run like a bitch. Tell me how the CDC info that I linked is wrong or being misinterpreted.
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I haven't checked out the CDC data, but deaths will lag behind hospitalizations, which will lag behind positive cases. Positive cases and hospitalizations are both going up right now, which means deaths will likely rise in another week or two. Death rate could be down now because several weeks ago things had not started reopening to the degree they are now.
 
BeachBumDeac said:
I haven't checked out the CDC data, but deaths will lag behind hospitalizations, which will lag behind positive cases. Positive cases and hospitalizations are both going up right now, which means deaths will likely rise in another week or two. Death rate could be down now because several weeks ago things had not started reopening to the degree they are now.
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Yes I acknowledge the time lag. But click the link and look at the chart, it will take you less time than it took to type that post. It is a significant downward slope in death numbers since mid-April.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm
 
I have no reason to think the data you cited is wrong.

My thought as a non-scientist is the spiking cases in areas with strained or low hospital resources. So more cases now —> more hospitalizations soon —> less treatment capacity —> more % of deaths. That’s based on nothing but my opinion on the data. Seems to be rafi bomb’s read too. Your interpretation of the death data suggests you believe it supports your continued assertion that it’s a nothingburger libs owned common cold. When it’s just point in time data.

Did I mention I’m not a scientist? Neither are you. And your posting history on this matter is...less than unbiased when it comes to cherry picking data. Sorry I’m not ready to crown you king of the libs when we haven’t even reached halftime of the covid fight. Wear a mask.
 
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