The irony of Oklahoma’s argument that the Supreme Court decision could open a floodgate of appeals is that the gate is already open. Since the Tenth Circuit took Murphy’s side in 2017, jailhouse lawyers have been helping people file writs and petitions across the state. There are clusters from certain prisons; someone even made a standard form that petitioners can fill out with their name and case details. Rather than a slew of new federal trials, these 140-plus petitions and writs have produced a slew of denials and dismissals. In layman‘s terms, they’ve resulted in court filings and paperwork, not releases or new trials.
Within all the cases that have come up since 2017, Oklahoma courts are holding a small batch—we identified fewer than 40–until the Supreme Court makes its decision. Almost universally in these cases, inmates made the reservation claim in their initial appeal and would also qualify for federal habeas relief. In other words, even if the Court finds that eastern Oklahoma is largely reservation land, it looks like the net impact of three years of inmates filing reservation claims would be a few dozen new trials.