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2021-22 Men's College Basketball Season - UNC v. Kansas for the Natty

thatguy2016 said:
to that point - I looked at the last 3:29 of the UL game, when we cleared the bench up 31. From that point, UL outscored the bench 13-4 over 8 possessions. This reduced our offensive efficiency for the game from 148 to 136 (higher is better on offense) and defensively, moved us from 100 to 106 (lower is better on defense)

this reduced our overall season efficiency by roughly 0.6 points. Add 0.6 to our current rating and we are #31 in KP's ratings, compared with the current #37 rating.

#31 to #37 in KP is kinda sorta a big deal

there is really no way for KP's ratings to control for this without lots of subjectivity, and obviously there are similar scenarios every night in lots of games, but certainly this is an argument to run up the score where possible
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It wouldn’t be too subjective to weight the highest margin, lowest margin, and the final score over the last 5 minutes.
 
thatguy2016 said:
to that point - I looked at the last 3:29 of the UL game, when we cleared the bench up 31. From that point, UL outscored the bench 13-4 over 8 possessions. This reduced our offensive efficiency for the game from 148 to 136 (higher is better on offense) and defensively, moved us from 100 to 106 (lower is better on defense)

this reduced our overall season efficiency by roughly 0.6 points. Add 0.6 to our current rating and we are #31 in KP's ratings, compared with the current #37 rating.

#31 to #37 in KP is kinda sorta a big deal

there is really no way for KP's ratings to control for this without lots of subjectivity, and obviously there are similar scenarios every night in lots of games, but certainly this is an argument to run up the score where possible
Click to expand...

Good info -- if computers can't account for this stuff, they shouldn't be given so much weight.
 
thatguy2016 said:
to that point - I looked at the last 3:29 of the UL game, when we cleared the bench up 31. From that point, UL outscored the bench 13-4 over 8 possessions. This reduced our offensive efficiency for the game from 148 to 136 (higher is better on offense) and defensively, moved us from 100 to 106 (lower is better on defense)

this reduced our overall season efficiency by roughly 0.6 points. Add 0.6 to our current rating and we are #31 in KP's ratings, compared with the current #37 rating.

#31 to #37 in KP is kinda sorta a big deal

there is really no way for KP's ratings to control for this without lots of subjectivity, and obviously there are similar scenarios every night in lots of games, but certainly this is an argument to run up the score where possible
Click to expand...

Yeah, the current system is basically saying embarrass your opponents regardless of the circumstance, or you will be punished for it. Not sure coaches are aware how much that affects NET.
 
We are actually 31 in the bart torvik rankings, which among other differences with kenpom, does account for garbage time. That being said, we are 45th in Evan Miya's system, which also accounts for garbage time, so :noidea:
 
Wisconsin is something like 15-1 in games decided by 6 points or less.
 
Maybe Evan Miya has improved his system, but he had some laughable ratings the first time I came across that site. Believe it was called out in a thread on here.
 
tiltdeac said:
We are actually 31 in the bart torvik rankings, which among other differences with kenpom, does account for garbage time. That being said, we are 45th in Evan Miya's system, which also accounts for garbage time, so :noidea:
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Isn't Evan Miya the one who ranked Williams and LaRavia as two of the top transfers last year?
 
If we need to run up the score against State, fine by me. Let’s kick em while they’re down. Miles got his three pointer moment so let’s pour it on. We have a week to rest.


***caveat, no injuries pls kthx***
 
Pilchard said:
Wisconsin is something like 15-1 in games decided by 6 points or less.
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Yeah, and the only loss was a 5 point loss to Providence without Johnny Davis. They had a couple of close wins against bad teams where they were also missing key players that seem to have an outsized affect on their computer rankings.

It's supposed to be a mark of good teams that they can close out close games against tough opponents.
 
I’m still in the camp that with a win tonight, Wake is in the tournament. Anything that happens next week just adjusts the seed.
 
I feel today they would be one of the last 9s or first 10s on S curve. One loss next week is not going to punt them out of the field from where they are today IMO.
 
daaberry said:
I’m still in the camp that with a win tonight, Wake is in the tournament. Anything that happens next week just adjusts the seed.
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Bracketology has had us as “should be in” for the last month, we just haven’t had much opportunity to lock our status. Think we need at least 1 tournament win to make up for the Clemson/Miami losses.
 
myDeaconmyhand said:
Bracketology has had us as “should be in” for the last month, we just haven’t had much opportunity to lock our status. Think we need at least 1 tournament win to make up for the Clemson/Miami losses.
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Completely agree. I wish I could be as confident as others here. I just think there's a strong case for keeping us out.
 
I think there’s some positive sentiment for our feel-good turnaround story. Particularly after our solid football season.

Wake has good mojo right now. The committee will want ManMan and Steve Forbes in this tournament.
 
I get it. I can see an argument that a team with the COY and POY should finish better than #5.
 
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