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Consolidated Bracketology Thread 3/12/23 updates

I remember that FSU team vividly. They actually won a game in the NCAAs (I think as a 5/12).

After looking it up: FSU had a good season going and then lost 5 in a row down the stretch. Beat UVA in the season finale, then lost their first ACC Tourney game to NCSU.

Beat TCU in a 12/5 upset in round 1 before losing in OT to Valpo in round 2.

I remember that FSU team because there was a kid on the team that I had played against in high school - Devonaire Deas.
 
DeacsATS said:
I remember that FSU team vividly. They actually won a game in the NCAAs (I think as a 5/12).

After looking it up: FSU had a good season going and then lost 5 in a row down the stretch. Beat UVA in the season finale, then lost their first ACC Tourney game to NCSU.

Beat TCU in a 12/5 upset in round 1 before losing in OT to Valpo in round 2.

I remember that FSU team because there was a kid on the team that I had played against in high school - Devonaire Deas.
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and because that was the year Odom, Shoemaker and company were on the Selection Show watching 6-10 FSU getting picked ahead of 7-9 WF, back when they showed teams who had no idea whether they would be selected.

Florida State lost the 7-8 play-in game to NCSU - this was during the time that the ACC let #9 play #1 so Les Robinson wouldn't feel bad
 
FSU beat UConn (#11) and Arizona (#5) OOC that year. But they didn't beat a single ranked team in the ACC (and got beat 103-55 @ UNC).

I have no idea how they got in that year.
 
The most important thing is for your conference to avoid a cluster of horrible OOC losses. When the Big 10 got nine bids last year, it included 9-11 Indiana. From the Big 12, 8-10 TCU and 7-11 Iowa State received bids. From the SEC, 9-9 Bama and 9-9 LSU were six seeds.

For the past two years, there have been too many ACC teams that completely barfed on themselves in OOC play. A conference can survive one outlier bad team, but multiple craptastic OOC losses just constricts the number of available bids for conference teams as it takes away a ton quality wins in conference games. Because the Big 12 killed it OOC games this year, almost every conference game is Q1 opportunity. When that happens, you don't need to win 70+% of your conference games to get an NCAAT invite.

West Virginia is 0-5 in the Big 12. They destroyed Pitt (2nd in the ACC) 81-56 at Pitt. Using any analytical system, it's hard for a conference to recover from embarrassing losses like the #2 ACC team getting blowed out at home by WV when literally every Big 12 team is working WV.
 
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DeacsATS said:
I remember that FSU team vividly. They actually won a game in the NCAAs (I think as a 5/12).

After looking it up: FSU had a good season going and then lost 5 in a row down the stretch. Beat UVA in the season finale, then lost their first ACC Tourney game to NCSU.

Beat TCU in a 12/5 upset in round 1 before losing in OT to Valpo in round 2.

I remember that FSU team because there was a kid on the team that I had played against in high school - Devonaire Deas.
Click to expand...

Wake beat FSU in the Joel the next to last Saturday of the regular season. I flew out of Greensboro to Atlanta right after that game (my first flight ever) and the FSU team was on that flight. After we got off in Atlanta, I went up to then head coach Steve Robinson and told him I was Wake student who was at the game and good luck going forward. Two weeks later, me and my friends are driving down to Daytona for Spring Break listening to the Selection Show on the radio when we heard the news. They blamed me for telling Robinson good luck for Wake not getting in the tournament. FSU lost to Valpo in the game after the Bryce Drew shot.
 
Pilchard said:
The most important thing is for your conference to avoid a cluster of horrible OOC losses. When the Big 10 got nine bids last year, it included 9-11 Indiana. From the Big 12, 8-10 TCU and 7-11 Iowa State received bids. From the SEC, 9-9 Bama and 9-9 LSU were six seeds.

For the past two years, there have been too many ACC teams that completely barfed on themselves in OOC play. A conference can survive one outlier bad team, but multiple craptastic OOC losses just constricts the number of available bids for conference teams as it takes away a ton quality wins in conference games. Because the Big 12 killed it OOC games this year, almost every conference game is Q1 opportunity. When that happens, you don't need to win 70+% of your conference games to get an NCAAT invite.

West Virginia is 0-5 in the Big 12. They destroyed Pitt (2nd in the ACC) 81-56 at Pitt. Using any analytical system, it's hard for a conference to recover from embarrassing losses like the #2 ACC team getting blowed out at home by WV when literally every Big 12 team is working WV.
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Yeah, and then what happened in the tourney to the B1G? The B1G hasn't won a natty in what, 20 years? That has to count for something.
 
PhDeac said:
Wake beat FSU in the Joel the next to last Saturday of the regular season. I flew out of Greensboro to Atlanta right after that game (my first flight ever) and the FSU team was on that flight. After we got off in Atlanta, I went up to then head coach Steve Robinson and told him I was Wake student who was at the game and good luck going forward. Two weeks later, me and my friends are driving down to Daytona for Spring Break listening to the Selection Show on the radio when we heard the news. They blamed me for telling Robinson good luck for Wake not getting in the tournament. FSU lost to Valpo in the game after the Bryce Drew shot.
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Huge if true
 
Pilchard said:
Are the American Athletic Conference and C-USA mid-major conferences? AAC has the #1 team in the country, Houston, #36 Memphis (they are 4-1 against the SEC, and almost beat Bama at Bama; they are 6-2 against the six power conferences) and #42 UCF; AAC is getting multiple bids. FAU is 17-1 ($35 KP), they have 16 game win streak, and they are getting in the NCAAT if they don't win CUSA.
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Good point. AAC will most likely get multiple bids. Don't think CUSA does unless like I said there is an upset in the conference tournament. With the addition of the AAC, I would say there are likely 3 mid majors that would receive multiple bids even if the favorite wins the auto bid, being the WWC, Mountain West, and AAC.
 
I wouldn’t assume a favorite will win a single elimination tournament even if they’re far and away the best team. It’s usually still < 50% even for a team like Charleston this year.

With that said, it’s good there aren’t really all that many potential bid stealers. Definitely less than normal.

The MWC likely gets 3-4 teams, with 6 sides competing for those slots.

Beyond that, here is the full list of >30% tourney chances w/ >5% chance as an at large (ie where a bid could be stolen in the conference tournament) per Torvik:

AAC: Houston, Memphis (69%), UCF (32%)
WCC: Gonzaga, St Mary’s
Florida Atlantic (96%)
Charleston (59%)
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Interesting to look back at this for sure. Sub .500 teams in ACC play to get an at-large bid to the tournament since 1990:

UVA (1990), GT (1991), UVA (1991), Wake (1992), Clemson (1996), UVA (1997), FSU (1998 - at 6-10!), Clemson (1998), State (2005), Maryland (2009), GT (2010), Cuse (2018).

Maryland won the 2004 ACCT with a 7-9 regular season record.
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... how did you you find this?

really impressive.
 
deacdixieboy said:
Up 6 spots to 69 in NET.
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69 NET/71 KP

With Clemsons relatively easy schedule- hopefully they will hang around in the top 25 for a while and we can continue to count this as a standout win. We are Clemson fans until the ACC tournament.
 
deacdixieboy said:
Up 6 spots to 69 in NET.
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69-billy.gif
 
lazydeac said:
69 NET/71 KP

With Clemsons relatively easy schedule- hopefully they will hang around in the top 25 for a while and we can continue to count this as a standout win. We are Clemson fans until the ACC tournament.
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No we aren’t. We need Clemson to lose in order to finish first in the regular season.
 
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