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Consolidated Bracketology Thread 3/12/23 updates

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thatguy2016

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Edited to add bracketmatrix link:


3/12 Bracket Matrix

5 teams in (NC State and Pitt in Dayton), Clemson/UNC next four out
Seeds: UVA 4 (100%), Duke 5 (100%), Miami 6 (100%), NCSU 11 (97%), Pitt 11 (92%), UNC out (0.4%), Clemson out (0.0%)

Bracket Matrix bubble (of 83 brackets):
Last 4 byes:
Utah State (83)
USC (83)
Miss State (83)
Providence (81)

Last 4 in - in Dayton:
Rutgers (78)
NC State (75)
Arizona State (74)
Pitt (51)

First 4 out:
Nevada (26)
Ok State (23)
Vanderbilt (4)
Clemson/UNC/Wisconsin - 1 bracket each



3/5 Bracket Matrix

5 teams in (NC State and Pitt last two byes), UNC and Clemson next four out
Seeds: UVA 4(100%), Miami 5(100%), Duke 7(100%), NCSU 11 (67%), Pitt 11 (31%), UNC out(20%), Clemson out(19%)

2/26 Bracket Matrix

5 teams in, UNC first four out, Clemson next four out
Seeds: UVA 4(100%), Miami 5(100%), Duke 7(100%), NCSU 9 (72%), Pitt 10(46%), UNC out(40%), Clemson out(32%)
No votes: WF (6%), VT (2%)

2/19 Bracket Matrix

5 teams in, UNC and Clemson first four out

Seeds: VA 3 (100%), Miami 5 (100%) Duke 8 (98%), NCState 9 (90%) Pitt 10 (62%) UNC out (49%) Clemson out (7%); VT no Matrix votes (12%), WF no Matrix votes (6%)

2/12 Bracket Matrix (Torvik odds of making NCAA in parentheses)

7 ACC teams in, Pitt last 4 in,
Seeds: VA 3 (100%), Miami 5 (100), Duke 7 (93), NCSU 8 (95), Pitt 10 (76), UNC 11 L4in (80), Clemson 11 L4in (11); WF out (8), VT out (22)

2/5 Bracket Matrix (Torvik odds of making NCAA in parentheses)

7 ACC teams in, Pitt last 4 in,
Seeds: VA 3 (100%), Miami 6 (97) Duke 6 (97) UNC 8 (69) NCSU 8 (88) Clemson 10 (18) Pitt 11, last 4 in (49) WF out (8), VT out (42)

1/29 Bracket Matrix (Torvik odds of making NCAA in parentheses)

6 ACC teams in, Pitt 1st 4 out, WF 8th team out and in 3 of 81 brackets
Seeds: VA 3 (100%), Miami 5 (88) Duke 6 (94) UNC 7 (91) NCSU 8 (89) Clemson 9 (47) Pitt 1st 4 out (30) WF out (10), VT out (46)

1/22/2023 Bracket Matrix (Torvik odds of making NCAA in parentheses)

7 ACC teams in, WF first 4 out, VT in one bracket of 79
Seeds: VA 4 (100%) Miami 5 (87%) Duke 6 (93) NCSU 7 (94) UNC 8 (96) Clemson 9 (51) Pitt 11, last bye (37%) WF first 4 out (21%) VT in one bracket (30%)


1/16/23: in 6 of 73 brackets; ACC teams UVA/Miami/Duke/NCSU/UNC/Clemson/Pitt in; VT bubble
 
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I think Xavier is going to be a Last 4 out, not in Dayton. They're under 500 in the Big East, have only won 2 of their last 10, with one of those being against Georgetown, who hasn't won a game since 2021, and they just lost to a bad Butler team.
 
MichDeac25 said:
I think Xavier is going to be a Last 4 out, not in Dayton. They're under 500 in the Big East, have only won 2 of their last 10, with one of those being against Georgetown, who hasn't won a game since 2021, and they just lost to a bad Butler team.
Click to expand...

They have faded badly and they have definitely given the committee an excuse to rule them out

However, their other recent win was against consensus #5 seed Connecticut, and they also have wins this year against Ohio State, VT (in Brooklyn), and a sweep of Creighton
 
If the current 2 games hold Wake is in serious trouble. Auburn is getting destroyed.
 
aTm up 16 on Auburn at halftime. IU up 3 on Illinois with 13:00 to play

original post from 2022:

According to Bracket Matrix, as of yesterday, WF is in "last 4 in" territory, but is barely hanging on.

Notable competition:

Consensus Safe:
TCU
San Francisco
Memphis
Creighton

Consensus Last 4 Byes:
Michigan - season over; lost to IU
Miami - plays Duke tonight
Notre Dame - season over; lost to VT
Wyoming - plays tonight MWC semis vs. Boise (other 3 semifinalists in MWC are by consensus in)

Consensus Dayton-Bound:
Wake Forest
Xavier - season over; lost to Butler
Rutgers - B1G quarters 2:00 vs. Iowa
SMU - AAC quarters 7:00 vs. Tulsa

Next 6, in no particular order:
VCU - A10 quarters, Richmond, 8:30
Indiana - vs. Illinois, B1G quarters, now
VT - ACC semis, UNC, tonight
Texas A&M - vs. Auburn, SEC quarters, now
Dayton - A10 quarters, UMass, 6:00 pm
Oklahoma - Big XII semis, Texas Tech, 9:30

note: if VCU and Dayton both win tonight, they play in the A10 semis and one will reach the championship. Davidson is probably a lock from the A10

Here is WF vs. Indiana, before IU's game (going on now) with Illinois:

FNlWIi-VcAEdFlz


Other IU-WF notes from betmgm

While the Hoosiers have an atrocious road record (3-8) and have similar results metrics (KPI and SOR) and records in the first two quadrants, they have one fewer Quadrant 3 loss and are far better in Opponent NET and Sagarin.

The advantage in Opponent NET (66 vs. 94) is particularly notable because the committee gives more weight to that metric than the NET itself.
Click to expand...
 
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Watching all of these other bubble teams hit big shots in clutch situations and winning must win games just confirms that we likely won't and shouldn't make the tournament. Opportunity was right in front of the team and they choked it away on a number of occasions.
 
Could also title this thread: longest week ever?

Or longest 72 hours ever or whatever.

Barely hanging on is pitiful.

But, recruiting/transfer portal some more wing defenders so Miami/Clemson/Boston Bad at Basketball College and others cannot just spread, dribble drive to the hoop on us over and over.

Don't get the matador defense from Walton or the foul call you desire? Rant, go ballistic, get T'd up and things will go your way to victory! Well done Earl Grant!
 
Jeez Auburn getting run. Were they really #1 in the country at one point.
 
You have got to be kidding me. Ill?

There was a TO to set up the last play and they throw it out of bounds.
 
It’s over y’all. It was fun to care again for a while.
 
Ya. We are fucked. Want to discuss NIT seeds and potential matchups?
 
Yep. At least now we know our destiny is a high seed in NIT.

I'll probably catch a game or 2. Maybe...Depends on if it seems like the team cares enough to show up.
 
lol almost comical how many things have gone the opposite way for the Deacs this week
 
IckerDeac said:
Ya. We are fucked. Want to discuss NIT seeds and potential matchups?
Click to expand...

I for one am pumped for another weekend filled with Putters, joel shenanigans and watching our baseball squad at the Couch.

Let's hang our second NIT banner!
 
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