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Consolidated Bracketology Thread 3/12/23 updates

Yeah I just want them to release the formula instead of calling it a nebulous “team value index.” I’m not gonna reverse engineer the rankings which I’m sure is possible.

The question NET is attempting to answer is “who deserves to go to the tournament” which isn’t the same question predictive metrics are trying to answer.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
It's really, really dumb when you get a huge boost for beating the 30th team in the NET on your home court instead of the 31st team in NET on your home court.
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Yes, they could just as easily provide a sort of quality points system, where for example beating the #1 team at home is worth 4 points, beating the #30 team at home is worth 2 points, beating the #75 team at home is worth 1 point, beating the #150 team at home is worth 0.1 point, and we interpolate in between. But then that's too much #math?
 
I guess my issue with the quadrant rankings too is, if it's already incorporated into the NET as some points based system for beating a team (so you get X for a win over the 1st ranked team, Y for 2nd, etc), then breaking it down into quadrants for the masses to see is double counting it.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
I guess my issue with the quadrant rankings too is, if it's already incorporated into the NET as some points based system for beating a team (so you get X for a win over the 1st ranked team, Y for 2nd, etc), then breaking it down into quadrants for the masses to see is double counting it.
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yes, 100%. Been saying that for a while. Some future iteration of the committee may realize this, or may decide to double count some other metric already baked into the NET
 
Does the system incorporate any sort of time weighting towards more recent results?
 
Liquid Karma said:
Does the system incorporate any sort of time weighting towards more recent results?
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no

www.ncaa.com

NET rankings: What to know about college basketball's new tool to help select the NCAA tournament field

The NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Committee has a new tool that hopefully should crystalize the ranking system before the selection and seeding of teams for the 2019 NCAA tournament.
www.ncaa.com www.ncaa.com

The committee did consider using the game date, an uncapped scoring margin, distance traveled and days of rest before a game but decided against using these in the equation.
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Game to watch today:
Syracuse @ Miami - Deacs should probably pull for Miami to continue to win as much as possible, including this one, set up a opportunity for big Q1 victory later on
7:00 PM ACCN

Also of note: Clemson leaps all the way up to #19 in the polls
 
Can easily vault to the first four out this week, if not last four in.
 
NJDeac’22 said:
Why is Virginia Tech next four out and we are not... that seems like complete bs when you look at both teams' resumes and the fact that we beat them head to head.
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yeah that's the one I was wondering about. but I really don't pay enough attention to the ranks and everyone's resumes. but still!
 
BarcaDeac said:
yeah that's the one I was wondering about. but I really don't pay enough attention to the ranks and everyone's resumes. but still!
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I think they're a good team but with Cattoor out they've struggled, and their resume isn't better than ours. He is expected back for their midweek game at UVA so will be interesting to see how they fare. VT and Cuse are two potential ACC bid stealers we need to keep ourselves ahead of and hope they don't get hot in the ACC Tournament.
 
deacfan123 said:
Can easily vault to the first four out this week, if not last four in.
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Definitely seems like it. Would be nice to run away with one of these games and make another jump in the metrics. That would be tough to do against UVA since they never really play lopsided games.
 
This is NOT scientific at all, but there are 13 games left in the season.

I know there are metrics and quads and all sorts of things that I pay a lot of attention to.

HOWEVER

I am looking at it as simple as this:
6-7 or worse = No NCAA Tourney
7-6 = Sweating on Selection Sunday; Work to do in ACC Tourney
8-5 or better = NCAAs

6-7 gets us to 19-12 (11-9) - That just doesn't feel like enough, regardless of who the Ws and Ls are against.
7-6 is 20-11 (12-8) - Depends on a lot of things, including who we beat and what the ACC standings look like.
8-5 is 21-10 (13-7) - Feels like enough with this schedule. 8 wins from here would mean there were some impressive victories in there. You can't get to that number without piling up some Q1s and moving up significantly in NET.

So, while I'll continue to look at the metrics almost daily, it feels to me like 8 wins over the next 13 is enough to get the job done.
 
DeacsATS said:
This is NOT scientific at all, but there are 13 games left in the season.

I know there are metrics and quads and all sorts of things that I pay a lot of attention to.

HOWEVER

I am looking at it as simple as this:
6-7 or worse = No NCAA Tourney
7-6 = Sweating on Selection Sunday; Work to do in ACC Tourney
8-5 or better = NCAAs

6-7 gets us to 19-12 (11-9) - That just doesn't feel like enough, regardless of who the Ws and Ls are against.
7-6 is 20-11 (12-8) - Depends on a lot of things, including who we beat and what the ACC standings look like.
8-5 is 21-10 (13-7) - Feels like enough with this schedule. 8 wins from here would mean there were some impressive victories in there. You can't get to that number without piling up some Q1s and moving up significantly in NET.

So, while I'll continue to look at the metrics almost daily, it feels to me like 8 wins over the next 13 is enough to get the job done.
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or just win the acc tournament. :)
 
DeacsATS said:
This is NOT scientific at all, but there are 13 games left in the season.

I know there are metrics and quads and all sorts of things that I pay a lot of attention to.

HOWEVER

I am looking at it as simple as this:
6-7 or worse = No NCAA Tourney
7-6 = Sweating on Selection Sunday; Work to do in ACC Tourney
8-5 or better = NCAAs

6-7 gets us to 19-12 (11-9) - That just doesn't feel like enough, regardless of who the Ws and Ls are against.
7-6 is 20-11 (12-8) - Depends on a lot of things, including who we beat and what the ACC standings look like.
8-5 is 21-10 (13-7) - Feels like enough with this schedule. 8 wins from here would mean there were some impressive victories in there. You can't get to that number without piling up some Q1s and moving up significantly in NET.

So, while I'll continue to look at the metrics almost daily, it feels to me like 8 wins over the next 13 is enough to get the job done.
Click to expand...

Importantly, 13-7 puts WF in the mix for a double bye and a quarterfinal game for the first time since Zach Keller was in pre-school. I think we need to avoid dropping our annual turd on the court at the ACC tournament unless we win 14 or more regular season.

The path to 8 wins would look something like this. Quad rankings and current Net Ratings to the side. Current (as of today; obviously there will be movement) Q1 games bolded. Sadly, we could go 13-7 and pick up 1 (!) Q1 win - and that is if NC State avoids dropping 3 spots in the NET ratings (UNC could also move up and give us a home Q1 win):

Clemson - W (Q2; 49)
UVA - L (Q1; 15)
@Pitt - L (Q1; 58)
NC State - W (Q1; 28)
@Duke - L (Q1; 25)
@ND - W (Q3; 165)
UNC - W (Q2; 33)
GT - W (Q3; 155)
@Miami - L (Q1; 39)
@NC State - L (Q1; 28)
ND - W (Q4; 165)
BC - W (Q4; 226)
@ Syracuse - W (Q2; 106)

It really hurts that in the last 10 days of the regular season we are playing two conference rivals for the second time - and those are Q4, must-win-to-avoid-an-ugly-loss games
 
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Yup... My point was exactly that. No way to 8 wins without having a few that help the strength of the resume and answer the question "well who did you beat?"

Even if you win all of the games against schools outside the Top 100 NET, you're only at 5 wins. To get to 8, you need to either beat some highly ranked teams at home (UVA, UNC, NCSU, Clemson) or some good teams on the road (Pitt, Duke, Miami, NCSU)
 
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