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Conference Expansion: Stanford, California and SMU Join the ACC

I'd like to see us stay in an intact ACC for the long-term, but in the event the league falls apart at some point I'd hope we would at a minimum pursue a spot in the Big 12 and at worst land in the AAC.

I don't actually see much happening until 2030 when the next big round of media deals will happen and at that point some of the ACC powers may decide the GOR buyout is low enough to swallow. Currently there's no incentive for ESPN to pay an ACC school more dollars to join the SEC and it doesn't sound like the schools in the Big 10 are eager to give any more schools a bite of their apple.
 
SCDeac said:
I'd like to see us stay in an intact ACC for the long-term, but in the event the league falls apart at some point I'd hope we would at a minimum pursue a spot in the Big 12 and at worst land in the AAC.

I don't actually see much happening until 2030 when the next big round of media deals will happen and at that point some of the ACC powers may decide the GOR buyout is low enough to swallow. Currently there's no incentive for ESPN to pay an ACC school more dollars to join the SEC and it doesn't sound like the schools in the Big 10 are eager to give any more schools a bite of their apple.
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If the ACC folds, which I don't see happening, let's just dominate the Ivy League and add a varsity men's hockey team.
 
Ge
SCDeac said:
I'd like to see us stay in an intact ACC for the long-term, but in the event the league falls apart at some point I'd hope we would at a minimum pursue a spot in the Big 12 and at worst land in the AAC.

I don't actually see much happening until 2030 when the next big round of media deals will happen and at that point some of the ACC powers may decide the GOR buyout is low enough to swallow. Currently there's no incentive for ESPN to pay an ACC school more dollars to join the SEC and it doesn't sound like the schools in the Big 10 are eager to give any more schools a bite of their apple.
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Get out cost today would be in the $700+ million range. $120 million exit fee. $50 million per year. I don't see a landing spot that gives a school more than $60 million per year above what the ACC pays out.
 
Deaconblue said:
Ge

Get out cost today would be in the $700+ million range. $120 million exit fee. $50 million per year. I don't see a landing spot that gives a school more than $60 million per year above what the ACC pays out.
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What would that number be in 2030? Obviously no member will bite that off today, but in 7 years some may decide that the number if palpable - especially with the Big 10 deal ending in 2030. If I remember something I read earlier I think the SEC deal goes until '33 or '34.
 
PhDeac said:
It's naive to think the goal for athletic programs is to "put a good product on the court/field that competes for championships in their respective leagues and gives their fans (like us, mostly alumni) something to follow and be proud of."

That's nice for us fans, but the ADs want a huge slush fund of TV $$$.
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When the dust settles and everyone's done chasing either SEC-level or CUSA-level t.v. $$, you take what you have and make fielding a championship-level program your focus. That's no different today for Wake than it will be after 2036 if not sooner. And yes, that's "nice" for us fans.
 
I think the best we could hope for if the ACC dissolves is joining the Big 12, which is not looking to stay put and definitely won't be if the SEC and Big 10 continue to add teams. It wants to stay relevant, or at least as small a step below the big dogs as possible. And it might be more attractive for it to add some teams from the east coast rather than the west coast, considering it already has a footprint out east with WVU, and now Cinci and UCF joining.

I question the attractiveness of schools like UVA and VT and NCSU. Maybe UVA as a flagship for the SEC and for academic purposes for the Big 10. UNC could say the same. Why is Miami attractive? FSU and Clemson for the SEC, sure, but assume UF agrees to bring in FSU, they're not going to want Miami there. Is Miami attractive to the Big 10? Meh. And for all the talk of Louisville opting out, nobody will want them except the Big XII I think.

In some ways, I think the sooner the ACC implodes, the better the chance for us to land a spot in the Big XII before they start poaching from the PAC. If we look at 4 teams being added from the ACC, then Duke and Louisville would have two of those spots. That leaves BC, GT, Pitt, Cuse, and us to duke it out for the remaining spots. I think BC and Cuse would be outliers, leaving GT, Pitt, and us. PItt may have an inroad with WVU already in the conference.

Now if the Big XII is looking at a 20 team final product, that's probably helpful.
 
If I am Wake, Duke , I say let them go. Join the big east with Syracuse, Boston College, Pitt, Louisville, UConn, GaTech, try and grab West Virginia, and U Conn in football, if you need bring in ECU and App in football. Then have an great basketball conference when you add in Providence, Seton Hall St John's, Marquette, DePaul, and Creighton. Tell the other that want to leave to deposit their checks and get the fuck out. Would have Atlanta, New York, Boston and Chicago TV markets do not get left waiting.
 
FWIW, I'm not so certain that the SEC or the Big 10 adds more teams very soon.

First, the SEC is about to add Texas and OU. The Big 10 is about to add USC and UCLA. That puts each conference at 16. Even with all of the new TV money. That is a lot of pieces of the pie. The more schools added, the smaller each school's percentage. To state the obvious, there's a big difference between getting the existing conference schools to agree to bring in University of Texas or the LA media market as opposed to adding VT and NC State. Conferences don't just expand for the heck of it. The conference has to be convinced that expansion is synergistic. Adding a bunch of ACC schools doesn't fit the economic model.

So, to the extent there is any additional expansion in the Big 10, for now, it will either be the SF market (Stanford and Cal) or ND and one other team (probably from the ACC). Just doesn't seem like the economics would justify bringing 4+ ACC teams. As for the SEC, there is no urgency to add anyone from the ACC. The SEC already has a strangle hold on Florida, UGA, SC. I'm sure that the SEC (or the Big 10) would like to add the NC and possibly VA markets, but only if they add two schools in total (UNC and UVA). The SEC wasn't interested in OK State, they aren't going to be interested in NC State or VT. Not sure if politically UNC could go to the SEC and leave NC State behind. Similarly, don't think UVA can go to the SEC without VT. So, is it worth adding the NC or VA markets, but bringing 4 more schools? Not sure about that.

That said, not a great position to be in to count on the ACC staying together because no one wants more than one or two of your schools. Kind of explains why the ACC is in this situation.
 
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The ACC is in this situation because either their product isn't valuable enough and/or they didn't get enough value for their product in 2016. They wanted stability and a network. That's what they got. Now they're mad the SEC and Big Ten (who already had stability and a network) got much more than that.

I don't think these ADs want to change conferences and destroy rivalries. They just want more money and that's the only way to do it which was the motivation for the ACC to expand in the first place.
 
TimmyClutch said:
Hypothetical situation, based off of what Andy Staples mentioned could happen:

Come 2028, Wake Forest will be part of the newly formed Hydrangea League which will consist of:

BC, Cuse, Duke, Wake, Tulane, SMU, Temple, Rice, UCONN, USF, Charlotte and Miami (Ohio) (the last 3 can be swapped out, I thought why not grab a Florida, Ohio, and another NC school)

Teams chosen for academic, geographical and athletics reasons. That is a league where we could consistently win and would have some interesting road trips. Basketball season would be pretty interesting as well.

It isn't going to happen, and the ACC isn't imploding, but I thought I would take a stab at world building.
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Why wouldnt you just call it the Magnolia league? And kick out the Yankee schools. Add Vandy if possible
 
inspectah said:
Best guess is that one or more blocs of schools will peel off to join the SEC/B10. Within a few years the math will tip in favor of any school that wants to leave, i.e., the money they'll make from moving conferences will offset the penalties incurred for a deliberate violation of the GOR. All the GOR did was buy the league a little bit of time.
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I'm not sure that is true. That money they will make from moving conferences will be an ongoing part of the penalties incurred, correct? The ACC maintains the "rights" to that revenue through 2036.
 
If Wake gets kicked to the curb on realignment, I think the best bet is to ramp up our academic prestige and try to stay a relevant G5
 
donaldross said:
Our alums put us in this position. We should have invested in men’s basketball for the last 6 decades. We didn’t.

We have lost with 7 straight Coaches. The fault was ours.
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So how are things looking for Duke and Syracuse ?
 
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