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Saturday College Football 12/3

Wakeforest22890 said:
I don't think it is, I thought the computers didn't have margin of victory as a factor.
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This is correct. The BCS doesn't allow them to use margin of victory because of "sportsmanship" concerns. It's obviously retarded, because coaches will run up the score anyway since it factors into the minds of human voters.
 
Sagarin does both and prefers his PREDICTOR which uses MOV but the BCS uses ELO CHESS which is just wins and losses.
 
TexasDeac10 said:
Dan Wetzel wrote a nice article summarizing the idiocy of the computer and human polls.

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/news?slug=dw-wetzel_football_hostage_illegitimate_bcs_112911

It's a long read, but I think he nails about every flaw.
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Saw this article mid-week. I agree that he makes a lot of good points.

I can understand why those guys might not want to make their formulas public, but that doesn't mean they should be exempt from review. BCS officials should be able to audit the computer results, even if the details are publicized.

I don't like the idea of using a single computer formula. If you're going to use computers, I kind of like the idea of using several of them. It's not like we're solving for X here, so I think it's okay to use different formulas that emphasize different aspects.

College football makes billions of dollars. I don't see why we don't take some of it and hire "professional" pollsters. Make it their job to watch and be knowledgable about the games and teams. This is sort of like his committee idea, but I think a group of 5-7 is too small.
 
DeacinBama said:
Saw this article mid-week. I agree that he makes a lot of good points.

I can understand why those guys might not want to make their formulas public, but that doesn't mean they should be exempt from review. BCS officials should be able to audit the computer results, even if the details are publicized.

I don't like the idea of using a single computer formula. If you're going to use computers, I kind of like the idea of using several of them. It's not like we're solving for X here, so I think it's okay to use different formulas that emphasize different aspects.

College football makes billions of dollars. I don't see why we don't take some of it and hire "professional" pollsters. Make it their job to watch and be knowledgable about the games and teams. This is sort of like his committee idea, but I think a group of 5-7 is too small.
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Professional pollsters is a good idea. There's no reason that the poll results couldn't be public if the BCS could compensate the pollsters for their ideas.
 
Yup, the BCS formula is turrible.

There should be two halves -- one a poll voted on by a committee (a la the NCAA tourney). And put a guy from Vegas on the committee, because he's going to be the smartest guy in the room. The computer ranking should include margin of victory -- I think the Sagarin composite rating (which is essentially two separate ratings) would do fine, although it could be tweaked.
 
I think Bama is a better team this year than LSU. Yes, they lost to them at home. But if you watched that game, Bama was clearly the better team; the special teams simply majorly fucked it up. A kicker who was previously 11/13 missed 3 fgs and another fg was blocked. Not to mention a fluke takeaway interception on the 1 yard line. The margin isn't grand, but I think Bama would win 55% of the time if a statistically significant number of games were played between them. Statistically, Bama has the edge on Defense and the running game while LSU has the better special teams.

That doesn't mean Bama necessarily deserves to be in NCG. The NCG should pick the two teams who had the best seasons. It is debatable whether Bama or OSU had the best season. All this talk of rematches, game-excitement, etc should be irrelevant though.
 
Fan opinion doesn't mean anything, but thought this was interesting

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Aocs3182 said:
OSU has two wins over top ten. Alabama has zero.
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:laugh: at the time they played the games. At the end of the season, Arkansas will be ranked in the top 10, OU will be around 15th and currently 6-6 Texas A&M will be unranked.
 
That map makes sense. Most people who don't have any ties to the teams involved don't want to see a rematch. What I think is interesting is that in spite of that poll's results, ESPN's fan rankings still have Alabama at #2. People still think Bama is better, but they don't want to see a rematch.
 
OliveGardenDeac said:
I think Bama is a better team this year than LSU. Yes, they lost to them at home. But if you watched that game, Bama was clearly the better team; the special teams simply majorly fucked it up. A kicker who was previously 11/13 missed 3 fgs and another fg was blocked. Not to mention a fluke takeaway interception on the 1 yard line. The margin isn't grand, but I think Bama would win 55% of the time if a statistically significant number of games were played between them. Statistically, Bama has the edge on Defense and the running game while LSU has the better special teams.

That doesn't mean Bama necessarily deserves to be in NCG. The NCG should pick the two teams who had the best seasons. It is debatable whether Bama or OSU had the best season. All this talk of rematches, game-excitement, etc should be irrelevant though.
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I think blaming the special teams is a crappy argument because special teams is part of the game.
 
Hello said:
I think blaming the special teams is a crappy argument because special teams is part of the game.
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Huge part of the game. But Bama's special teams, while definitely not their strength, performed terribly and much worse than an average performance. I'm just using the special teams performance that day + fluke take-away interception on the 1 yard line to justify the variance that led to the loss. Bama left more points on the field than LSU earned 3/3 fgs to 2/6. Bama had much more offense.

Any top 25 or even top 40 team can beat any other team in the country on a given day due to variance. It's just a question of how likely one team or the other is to win that determines the better team. Since we can't repeat the experiment, it is opinion rather than fact, but we can still make an educated guess. I'm just saying mine is that Bama has a slight edge over LSU (55-45ish) and both have a slightly bigger edge against OSU (60-40ish). That said, 40% is not very unlikely and OSU could beat either team in the actual game if given a chance.
 
OliveGardenDeac said:
Huge part of the game. But Bama's special teams, while definitely not their strength, performed terribly and much worse than an average performance. I'm just using the special teams performance that day + fluke take-away interception on the 1 yard line to justify the variance that led to the loss. Bama left more points on the field than LSU earned 3/3 fgs to 2/6. Bama had much more offense.

Any top 25 or even top 40 team can beat any other team in the country on a given day due to variance. It's just a question of how likely one team or the other is to win that determines the better team. Since we can't repeat the experiment, it is opinion rather than fact, but we can still make an educated guess. I'm just saying mine is that Bama has a slight edge over LSU (55-45ish) and both have a slightly bigger edge against OSU (60-40ish). That said, 40% is not very unlikely and OSU could beat either team in the actual game if given a chance.
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I see what you're saying, but homefield advantage in the SEC is very important. When there are 100,000 people that are not rooting for you there is going to be some distraction. The only evidence that we have from the game is that Alabama can play LSU close at home. There is no evidence from the game that will conclusively prove that Alabama would play LSU tight on a neutral site because it has not happened.

You have to give credit to the kid that made the play on the 1 yard line. He made the play, it was ruled in his favor after a review. I'm not sure why you're saying it is a fluke because Eric Reid is a good player and there is little evidence that AJ McCarron is that great a QB.

If you're talking overall body of work, LSU had a way tougher schedule. They are not going to be as statistically dominant, they played two conference champions already. Outside of Arkansas, Bama did not play anyone worth a crap.
 
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It bothers me that people keep saying "the fans don't want to see a rematch" and "Alabama has already had their chance."

That should have no impact on the Bama vs. Okie State debate. The NC game should match up the two best teams in the country, regardless of their conference or previous meetings. I don't know why people are acting like it's so inconceivable that the two best teams could be from the same conference. We seem to have no problem recognizing that in other sports.

Who would be favored between Alabama and Okie State on a neutral field? That's the only thing that matters and I'm thinking the answer is Alabama.
 
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A little bit of a tangent here, but this is an article about how Dan Beebe shat the bed in 2008 by voting against the plus-one system. It's a long read, but still interesting, I think. Strangely enough, the SEC - who has benefited the most from BCS - was a proponent of the plus-one, along with the ACC.

Big 12 blew it
 
Homefield advantage is certainly very important. I also admit that I am somewhat biased. Eric Reid's play was phenomenal and won't be forgotten for a long time. However, I think part of the reason that plays like that are so awesome and rare is because of how many other little factors that I think can be accurately summarized as luck are involved in the making of such plays. Definitely don't want to take anything away from the guy though.

Good point about the stats though. LSU has had a very significantly harder schedule this year. Both have incredibly good defenses. I just think Bama has a slight edge on a player by player basis. We'll see what the NFL thinks in the draft this year. Either way, the first two rounds are gonna be packed with defensive players on both teams.

I think you can make a good educated argument for either being better, but there is no doubt LSU has played the tougher schedule and has had the better season. I'm not sure whether I would vote Bama or OSU into the title game yet. Perhaps Bama did blow its chance in the first game. However, by that argument, I think both teams blew their chances. If OSU had beaten a very mediocre 4-touchdown underdog opponent, we wouldn't even have anything to talk about right now.
 
Hello said:
I see what you're saying, but homefield advantage in the SEC is very important. When there are 100,000 people that are not rooting for you there is going to be some distraction. The only evidence that we have from the game is that Alabama can play LSU close at home. There is no evidence from the game that will concisely prove that Alabama would play LSU tight on a neutral site because it has not happened.
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In the last 20 games between Alabama and LSU, the home team is 7-13.
 
DeacinBama said:
A little bit of a tangent here, but this is an article about how Dan Beebe shat the bed in 2008 by voting against the plus-one system. It's a long read, but still interesting, I think. Strangely enough, the SEC - who has benefited the most from BCS - was a proponent of the plus-one, along with the ACC.

Big 12 blew it
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Just finished reading. Great article. Dan Wetzel kills it with his BCS coverage.

I actually had no idea how much revenue the BCS system was costing the NCAA. Interesting stuff.
 
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