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NBA offseason thread

TexasDeac10 said:
Ehh, I'm just not seeing it. The moves all made much more sense with an eye toward Dwight. In their current form, they look a little silly, but a guy like Omer Asik has been (according to most analysts) paid about correctly for what he should bring in defense and rebounding. Lin is, perhaps, an overpay but he's also a shrewd business move (the Rockets have begun to receive advertising revenue from Taiwanese companies already-- see http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/8...pany-follows-rockets-guard-jeremy-lin-houston).

I don't understand why Lamb can't be a replacement AND a trade chip. That, to me, was the purpose of the Lamb/Jones/White picks. Pick guys that you're high on, and use them as trade bait, but should nothing work out you're left with a bunch of young talent that you like and a load a cap space.

The Scola waive is the one thing Rockets fans are still down on, but that was clearly to try to induce the Magic into a trade. They took a gamble, and they lost for bizarre reasons. It happens.

Morey may inevitably be fired--he has, after all, been the GM in Houston for quite some time--but I hardly think he's unskilled at his job or an immature GM. He's a little too coldly analytical sometimes (Chuck Hayes and Carl Landry are plus players, I swear!!!), but I think he "gets" the league and knows what it takes to win. Despite the Yao/T-Mac injury saga, he's put together several years of winning teams. This year will be his first shitty team, but it's a shitty team that's exceptionally well positioned for the future. And, to Morey's credit, he's always been a fantastic drafter. Marcus Morris is the only glaring recent pick that hasn't panned out, and in that same draft he still picked up Parsons and Motiejunas.

I'm defs a Morey fanboy. If you go over to the Houston boards, you'll see that public opinion is about split 50/50, but I'm defs on the Morey side. The "other" side, to me, just screams "let's a GM that can land a big player!!! and then we'll be awesome!!" Not going to happen by simply sweet talking a guy into playing for you.
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I mean I see Morey's appeal. He finds value in places where there isn't a ton of it. But, let's also be real. He's built a team that, at best, has won just one playoff series. They're mediocre, at best. And, there's a definite middleground between superstar-landing and putting together a winning team.

He really hasn't been able to do either, and in the process, he's put the Rockets in a bind where they now have 10 players who play the same position and cannot have trade value until they prove something or other. Parsons is solid, but he's probably not even worth a first round pick at this point. Morris looks like a waste and we don't even know what any of the other guys are capable of doing yet (Donatas, included). The speculative value on the 2012 rooks is officially spent. Now, they'll have to find a way to showcase 5+ guys and get them legit trade value so that they can attempt to get some picks or players.

There are ways to build a good team without a superstar. But, it would be kind of inane to suggest that Morey is doing that or has got y'all on the road to success. Six years down, one playoff series under his belt and a disastrous few years in the draft. That's the resume, value philosophy and analytic prowess aside, and at some point, it's going to have to be taken at face value...
 
And, you know: I'm just going to throw it out there and say that Morey's drafts have been at best solid and at worst average.

2006: He traded Rudy Gay for Shane Battier and Steve Novak developed under other teams' wings.

2007: Aaron Brooks had a few monster years (albeit stunted by the eventual PG logjam that Morey created) before leaving for China, but we're waiting to see if he can replicate that on another team, not the Rox.

Landry was an excellent pick, possibly his best, but then again: they let him walk for nothing.

Acquired Luis Scola in a salary dump from San Antonio (and subsequently waived him for a trade that never happened and allegedly wasn't even remotely agreed upon at the time) and Brad Newley, a freakish athlete on the wing with no skills (you might have seen him play well in the first half of AUS-USA in the Olympics).

2008: Batum was a great pick, but they traded him (and drafted him for POR), Dorsey's psych eval trumped Morey's advanced statistical analysis (he's playing in Greece), and Marty Leuenen has never even sniffed the NBA.

2009: Jermaine Taylor never figured it out, but Sergio Llull could prove to be an outstanding pick if he ever decides to come to the NBA. He could show Dragic-like improvement in an up-tempo system.

Budinger was good value in the 2nd round, but it was a no-brainer pick and he's an average, at best, NBA player (which is great for his draft position).

2009: The two lotto picks, Patrick Patterson and Marcus Morris have either been busts (worst case) or have never had room to develop (best case). They are both face-up PFs.

Mirotic was traded to the Bulls (and was picked by and for the Timberwolves...who own in Intl scouting...and also picked Donatas, FWIW).

Parsons has been a solid NBA player, like Budinger, probably ultimately average, but nonetheless a steal given his draft position.

2012: Lamb could be a diamond in the rough, but there is no hiding the fact that he and KMart are very similar players. Neither was able to gain them leverage in the Howard scenario.

Terrence Jones was an excellent pick (you're absolutely right).

Royce White plays the same position as all of the PFs and Furkan could have some value down the line if he ever jumps the pond. He's definitely got NBA-caliber upside, though, and could definitely be a steal down the road.

FWIW, I'm higher on Asik than most, but I still think it was a somewhat bad decision to sign an unproven center for so much money right out the gate. He's not even Marcin Gortat proven, so it's quite a substantial risk, IMO, even as I wholly believe that the analytics will be proven right.

Lin is an overpay in my mind simply because they let so many better player leave for relatively nothing (Lowry, Dragic, and even Kendall Marshall all would have been better value IMO).
 
Ugh.

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I'll respond more when I'm not at work, but you can't look at all of Morey's late second rounders (like Leunen) and say "zomg, they never sniffed the NBA!" Those guys aren't supposed to sniff the NBA. The real question is how well Morey did for drafting guys with the draft picks he had. You're not going to find any Kevin Durants on that list because we never had a pick higher than 14 in the past couple years.

You also can't say "Team X picked this player, not the Rockets!" if the Rox traded for player X on draft day. That is, effectively, drafting said player. It means that one team valued that player more than another team, in my mind. Either Minnesota drafted Motiejunas at our request, or we put a higher valuation on him than they did once they had drafted him. And, although it's all speculative at this point, I do think Motiejunas could really turn into a potential 10 & 5 guy this year, 15 & 10 in the future.

Also, Brooks was solid. Hard to knock that pick at all. The fact that he sucks for another team doesn't really matter.

Morris is such a bust though. He was never supposed to be a face up 4 though. They drafted him to develop into a 3. Not going to happen.

Landry was good, Budinger was very good (remember, we flipped him into a first rounder this year. That's very good.) And I do think Parsons is similar. If his offensive game comes around at all (and there's no reason to think it can't - all that's holding him back is inconsistent shooting - the physical tools are there), he's certainly worth a 1st round pick.

And that is, in a nutshell, what I think Morey's done in drafts. Turn low picks into higher ones down the road. Picking up Lowry for cheap is another good example, even though it wasn't in the draft. With the exception of Morris and Trevor Ariza (lol), I think you have to agree that players come into Houston and subsequently leave with higher value. Whether that's because of some system that Houston plays or because of Morey's evaluations, I can't say, but I think it's noteworthy.

Examples, through the draft or otherwise: Scola, Dragic, Lowry, Brooks, Budinger, Lee (maybe, can't say), Landry, Hayes

PS - Chuck Hayes got a shoe deal in China b/c of Yao. Lol.
 
Fuck I said I wouldn't type too much. My bad.

And Strickland, I want to emphasize again that I can't say you're wrong. There are some super knowledgeable Rox posters that agree with you. But there are other excellent posters that take the opposite view. It's a difficult debate to have.
 
Pretty sure the Lakers turned down Williams and a 1st round pick (off in the future) for Gasol last year.

The Lakers might well have made that trade but Kobe has been pretty adamant that he loves Gasol on his team. Even though he's big fucking pussy, I think Kobe just generally likes him as a person - plus he's a great passer. Gasol was perfect for the triangle, which the Lakers no longer run ...

I have also heard rumblings of Boozer being offered for Gasol but both sides fidgeted as both worried that Boozer wasn't a good fit with Bynum (Boozer needs too many shots and not a great passer) and Noah doesn't have the inside game to really benefit from a Gasol pass ...

Gasol has value
 
"Bryant and Gasol bid against each other for an ownership stake in a 4-year-old gelding named Siempre Mio as part of a Lakers Foundation fundraiser at Riviera Country Club on Tuesday night.
Santa Anita Park chief executive officer Mark Verge donated a 25 percent stake in the gelding along with a day at the races as part of a live auction.
''Pao Gasol [sic] bid first, but then he and Kobe got into a little bit of a bidding war. Kobe won the bidding at $8,000,'' Doug O'Neill, who trains the gelding, said Wednesday.
Verge then offered Gasol a chance to buy a 25 percent interest in the horse in exchange for a donation to the Lakers Foundation. Part of the deal was that the new owners pay no expenses in the horse's care and training."

The irony of this is I think Drew Brees claimed the horse away from them.
 
Working on a little bet with a friend.

He gets Heat, Bulls, Lakers and OKC to win the title next year. I get the field. What kind of odds should I get?

FUCouch, I'm looking at you.
 
He's got the three favorites. I'd ask for at least 6-1.

10-1 is probably more realistic.
 
He's got the 4 favorites:

ODDS TO WIN THE 2012-13 NBA CHAMPIONSHIP
Team Odds
Miami Heat 11/5
Los Angeles Lakers 11/5
Oklahoma City Thunder 9/2
Chicago Bulls 10/1
San Antonio Spurs 15/1
Boston Celtics 25/1
Los Angeles Clippers 25/1
Indiana Pacers 30/1

I would look at it as who could really win outside of those 4 teams if some crazy shit happens injury/fluke wise. The only teams that could IMO are the Spurs (15/1) and the Celtics (25/1). That gives them about a 7% and 4% chance respectively according to Vegas. So yeah I would ask for 10/1 odds in your favor.
 
Interesting way to look at it.

Odds of one of top 4 teams winning the title: 11/5, 11/5, 9/2, 5/1. Convert that to .4545 + .4545 +.2222 + .2 = 1.3313
Every other team's odds total: .5883

Add those together to figure out the weighting of Vegas advantage in these: 1.919

Divide both numbers by that multiplier.

Favorites: .6935 or 69.35%
Field: .3065 or 30.65%

Definitely not the most scientific way to look at things but I still think it's valid enough to get an idea on the odds. Would also be worth looking and seeing how often a team outside the 4 favorites has won the title. This year would be significantly more biased than past years though as there are two maybe three heavy favorites and then the rest.
 
Yeah there are three clear SuperDuper teams for the 2012-2013 season, and then 3 also-rans in CHI, BOS, and SAS. There is no way that there is a 31% chance in reality that the field would win against those 4 teams. I didn't really look at it scientifically, but just don't see any way the Clippers get out of the West with two of the SuperTeams there and another team in the Spurs that clownstomped them in the playoffs last year.

As far as the East goes, Boston is an aging team but a team that is well coached with elite talent that fits and could get hot. BKN is intriguing but I don't like them much better than the Knicks, who have won exactly 1 playoff game in the past two years.
 
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AnonymousDeac said:
Interesting way to look at it.

Odds of one of top 4 teams winning the title: 11/5, 11/5, 9/2, 5/1. Convert that to .4545 + .4545 +.2222 + .2 = 1.3313
Every other team's odds total: .5883

Add those together to figure out the weighting of Vegas advantage in these: 1.919

Divide both numbers by that multiplier.

Favorites: .6935 or 69.35%
Field: .3065 or 30.65%

Definitely not the most scientific way to look at things but I still think it's valid enough to get an idea on the odds. Would also be worth looking and seeing how often a team outside the 4 favorites has won the title. This year would be significantly more biased than past years though as there are two maybe three heavy favorites and then the rest.
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I'd look at the odds more like this: 6/11*6/11*7/9*4/5 = .18. Either way i'd still be looking for AT LEAST 10-1 odds.
 
You can't really just add up the odds for the rest of the field either.

Houston Rockets 100/1
Orlando Magic 100/1
Minnesota Timberwolves 100/1
Portland Trail Blazers 100/1
Utah Jazz 100/1
Cleveland Cavaliers 100/1
Phoenix Suns 100/1
Sacramento Kings 100/1
New Orleans Hornets 100/1
Golden State Warriors 100/1
Milwaukee Bucks 100/1
Toronto Raptors 100/1
Charlotte Bobcats 100/1
Detroit Pistons 100/1
Washington Wizards 100/1

All those teams are 100/1, which would equate to a 1% chance of winning. There are 15 100/1 teams, so is there a 15% (or whatever it comes out to with the multiplier) that one of those teams wins? Hell no.

The Bobcats chance of winning the title in real life is 0.00%. If someone offered me 10,000,000 to 1 odds on the Bobcats winning the title but said the minimum bet was $20, I would save my money.
 
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