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Monetary & Housing Policy Thread: Fed Adopts Evans Rule

to you they are wild ass guesses because you don't know anything about MBS, however someone somewhere thinks they do and is willing to buy/sell them as part of an overall market strategy that they figure will make them money over some term. All the research in the world can't guarantee a sure thing though either for MBS or GE.

to piggy back on that, when the weekend warrior does a little bit of research and decides to jump in a stock, chances are they are deluding themselves if they think they are going to outsmart the market. anything you research has already been disected and built into the current price.
 
But at least when I buy stock of GE I can do some research and figure out if it is performing well, etc. These MBS appear to me (and I'm admittedly a noob) to be wild-ass-guesses. No?

Sort of. Most MBS don't contain loan-level information, so MBS buyers had to rely on ratings agencies like Moody's and S&P to determine the risks in each security.
 
to you they are wild ass guesses because you don't know anything about MBS, however someone somewhere thinks they do and is willing to buy/sell them as part of an overall market strategy that they figure will make them money over some term. All the research in the world can't guarantee a sure thing though either for MBS or GE.

Hmm. Fair points.
 
But (shock!) this worked poorly because ratings agencies were paid by the MBS sellers, and so were incentivized to slap as many AAA ratings on things as possible, because they feared losing business if they didn't. And also the dumbest people in finance work at ratings agencies.
 
So why did this have to happen now rather than in November? Is there another explanation other than Wall Street is trying to fix the result? Because that's sure what it looks like to a lot of people.
 
So why did this have to happen now rather than in November? Is there another explanation other than Wall Street is trying to fix the result? Because that's sure what it looks like to a lot of people.

What is "this"? Actually, that doesn't matter. There's no reason why the Fed should have delayed QE3 if it thought it was the right thing to do, and given Egan-Jones' hard-money and austerity preferences, there's no reason for them to delay their (meaningless) downgrade.
 
" We don't need synthetic money creation. ...We don't want to print money." Paul Ryan in a press release.

Is the Romney campaign against fiat money or does it just want a fixed money supply? Why is this crankery popular on the right?
 
So why did this have to happen now rather than in November? Is there another explanation other than Wall Street is trying to fix the result? Because that's sure what it looks like to a lot of people.

Only people who want to see the economy fail. Otherwise it looks like the fed trying to boost the economy in line with their mission.
 
Only people who want to see the economy fail. Otherwise it looks like the fed trying to boost the economy in line with their mission.

Whatever dude. The Fed usually tries to appear to be above politics. So is this saying that without this, the economy would have collapsed in the next 2 months? Are we that close to the edge?

If so, that seems to say a lot for the failure of the Fed's previous actions and call for a different course of action, not more of the same. And if we aren't that close to the edge, then this absolutely reeks of political influence and game-playing.
 
Whatever dude. The Fed usually tries to appear to be above politics. So is this saying that without this, the economy would have collapsed in the next 2 months? Are we that close to the edge?

If so, that seems to say a lot for the failure of the Fed's previous actions and call for a different course of action, not more of the same. And if we aren't that close to the edge, then this absolutely reeks of political influence and game-playing.

Doctor: You're not going to die of your torn acl in the next two months, so we will wait until November to try and fix it.
 
Doctor: You're not going to die of your torn acl in the next two months, so we will wait until November to try and fix it.

So are you saying that the economy was or was not on the verge of collapse in the next 2 months?

I've known people that never got an ACL surgically repaired. And plenty of people that played the rest of the season before having surgery.

So yes, that is an excellent example of exactly what I'm talking about.
 
You are saying that everything is just fine by saying we should hold off on doing anything.

I'm not a financial expert, but I'm not sure QE3 is the way to go. We already have super low interest rates with little investment.
 
Whatever dude. The Fed usually tries to appear to be above politics. So is this saying that without this, the economy would have collapsed in the next 2 months?[SUP]1[/SUP] Are we that close to the edge?

If so, that seems to say a lot for the failure of the Fed's previous actions and call for a different course of action, not more of the same[SUP]2[/SUP]. And if we aren't that close to the edge, then this absolutely reeks of political influence and game-playing.[SUP]3[/SUP]

1. Not at all. It's saying that without this action, we'd continue our same dull, precarious, mediocre recovery that barely adds enough jobs to keep the prime working age employment-population ration stable that we've been in since 2010 or so. The Fed has seen low inflation and high unemployment, and has judged that open-ended easing is the best course of action consistent with its mandate to maintain stable prices and maximum employment.

2. This is indeed a change in the Fed's course of action. They haven't done open-ended easing before and much of the communication and transparency that Bernanke has started is very new. The Fed only had its first press conference in 2011, 98 years after the Federal Reserve Act.

"The policy the Fed announced today is unusual in that it is an open-ended purchase of securities. The Fed did not announce a total dollar value as it has in the past, but instead committed to continue buying assets until economic conditions change, i.e. until unemployment falls "substantially," or inflation begins to increase to worrisome levels. The extension of the forward guidance on interest rates from 2014 to 2015 is also unusual, but both of these can also be explained by the recent conference in Jackson Hole. At that conference, Michael Woodford, a very highly respected monetary economist, delivered a paper showing that the Fed has the most impact on the economy when it credibly commits to future actions. Thus, according to Woodford, it is not the quantitative easing itself that helps the economy (i.e. how many assets the Fed holds), but rather it's the commitment to continue purchasing assets until the unemployment rate improves substantially that matters. This is a form of forward guidance, and it complements the forward guidance on interest rates the Fed has issued in the past, and extended today." http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162-57512387/fed-announces-additional-monetary-stimulus/

This is definitely new, and there have definitely been people criticizing the Fed's (in)action recently. This very thread is but one example of that.

3. Conservatives and hard-money advocates can gnash their teeth all they want, but this action passed on an 11-1 vote and Bernanke is a Republican. This action is nothing more than public servants finally getting around to doing their jobs. If anything, this is overdue. If you want to talk about political motivations, talk about that.
 
So they're going to QE indefinitely until the dollar is practically worthless trying to jump start the economy even though it won't work, but the official (read: BS) numbers will show that inflation is mild and not a significant threat (just as their current numbers are in no way in keeping with real world realities for most Americans). That just seems like putting into overdrive your previous and up to now failed (obviously since it required such drastic action during an election season) plan.

Awesome. Bernanke may call himself a Republican, but he sure seems to be working toward liberal goals; gas back to 4 bucks a gallon, more people on food stamps, fewer people in the work force, more dependent on the government. What a racket, and everyone's in on it. Republicans aren't doing anything about it either.

It remains that either there was a crisis so severe that it would resulted in economic collapse in the next two months, or the Fed just tried to decide the election by doing something now that could have waited. There's no in between there. It's either one, or the other.

I wonder what they would have done if Ron Paul had been nominated, as it now seems obvious he should have been.
 
Quantitative easing is robbery. How they get away with it is most people don't even know they're being robbed. They've been brainwashed to think that inflation is natural, inevitable, unavoidable.
 
So they're going to QE indefinitely until the dollar is practically worthless[SUP]1[/SUP] trying to jump start the economy even though it won't work, but the official (read: BS[SUP]2[/SUP]) numbers will show that inflation is mild and not a significant threat (just as their current numbers are in no way in keeping with real world realities for most Americans).

Awesome. Bernanke may call himself a Republican, but he sure seems to be working toward liberal goals; gas back to 4 bucks a gallon, more people on food stamps, fewer people in the work force, more dependent on the government. What a racket, and everyone's in on it. Republicans aren't doing anything about it either.

It remains that either there was a crisis so severe that it would resulted in economic collapse in the next two months, or the Fed just tried to decide the election by doing something now that could have waited. There's no in between there. It's either one, or the other.[SUP]3[/SUP]

I wonder what they would have done if Ron Paul had been nominated, as it now seems obvious he should have been.

1. The Fed said (pretty plainly) that QE3 would stop in the event of unacceptably high inflation

2. Why are you so convinced that the CPI and PCE index are bunk? The Billion Prices Project tracks them nicely and shadowstats hasn't raised its subscription fee in 6 years.

3. That's nowhere near being the case. I don't know why you can't even consider that this action is overdue. If you sat around doing nothing at your job for a year, are you bailing out your supervisor if you happened to finally get back to work 2 months before his review or have you been sabotaging him for the whole time leading up to your decision to do your job?
 
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1. The Fed said (pretty plainly) that QE3 would stop in the event of unacceptably high inflation

Unacceptable to who? To the joe that's paying 4 bucks a gallon for gas? To the mom that's paying more every time she goes shopping for food or clothes for her kids? Or to the fatcat that is getting rich off robbing the middle class of the value of their money so as to jump start the stock market in which increasingly few can meaningfully participate.

3. That's nowhere near being the case. I don't know why you can't even consider that this action is overdue. If you sat around doing nothing at your job for a year, are you bailing out your supervisor if you happened to finally get back to work 2 months before his review or have you been sabotaging him for the whole time leading up to your decision to do your job?

I'd be overjoyed if the Fed did nothing. They're the ones that caused the bubbles.
 


And this man ran for president. And lost to a Wall Street fatcat with the Republican party running interference at every turn.

I fear our last chance at freedom is gone.
 
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