16 close losses since the Orange Bowl

[HeavyPetter]

^Depends on the distance required for a first down/touchdown.

 

[freakadeac]

Newman killed us against ND and (especially) Clemson. Not sure what's going on other than a confidence issue.

Related to kicking, Wulfeck's improved over the course of the season, which is nice. 39.2 avg (and steadily improving) to 38.9 avg for our opponents.

 

[RedSoxFaithful]

^Depends on the distance required for a first down/touchdown.

Yeah, that's why I said "almost". I'd argue that even a 4th and goal from the 10 gives that expected return edge, though.

 

[bojanglefunk]

Your logic ignores that extra points are dependent on touchdowns.

But, more than that, the expected return of going for a touchdown in the red zone on 4th down will almost always be more than the expected return of kicking a field goal. I think that's especially true when you have as good a passer as Tanner Price, in addition to how God awful our kickoff coverage has been.

Yeah I was just being a hardass with technical terms.

You can't say that the expected return is almost always greater without knowing the average distance for conversion on 4th down in the redzone and the average yards per play for the offense.

 

[RedSoxFaithful]

Yeah I was just being a hardass with technical terms.

You can't say that the expected return is almost always greater without knowing the average distance for conversion on 4th down in the redzone and the average yards per play for the offense.

Yeah. I've done the math for a similar situation (I did a study on the benefits of taking an intentional safety as opposed to punting), and I'd reckon that the math here wouldn't be much different.

Maybe the biggest thing in favor of going for it in that type of situation is our kickoff coverage. When you're letting teams start at the 35-40 consistently (I don't know if that's the case, or if kickoff data is readily accessible for college ball, but it sure seems like it), it probably benefits you a ton to try and take the touchdown with a downside of giving the other team a long field.

 

[bojanglefunk]

Yeah. I've done the math for a similar situation (I did a study on the benefits of taking an intentional safety as opposed to punting), and I'd reckon that the math here wouldn't be much different.

Maybe the biggest thing in favor of going for it in that type of situation is our kickoff coverage. When you're letting teams start at the 35-40 consistently (I don't know if that's the case, or if kickoff data is readily accessible for college ball, but it sure seems like it), it probably benefits you a ton to try and take the touchdown with a downside of giving the other team a long field.

Yeah for sure. I am more on board with this statement "Always go for it in the redzone in situations of 4th and 4 or less." I read an article about the NFL and it said that every NFL team should do it on 4th down whenever it was 4th or 3 and less and from some yardage (can't remember, but it was like the 50), but taht coaches are scared too.

The one thing I will say is that not getting any points greatly impacts momentum and confidence.

 

[KanhojiAngre]

Yeah for sure. I am more on board with this statement "Always go for it in the redzone in situations of 4th and 4 or less." I read an article about the NFL and it said that every NFL team should do it on 4th down whenever it was 4th or 3 and less and from some yardage (can't remember, but it was like the 50), but taht coaches are scared too.

The one thing I will say is that not getting any points greatly impacts momentum and confidence.

I think it's basically inside the 20, and 4th and 1 practically anywhere on the field. Can't say I agree with that last part just because the consequences are so severe if you don't get it, and the reward so seemingly small if you do convert from like your own 20.

Glad someone was actually paying attention the last time this came up and I cited this stuff. Maybe I'm doing some good here after all.

 

[Complacent Deac]

Some people would say that Jim Grobe choked that one away.....by not even making an attempt to get a few yards closer, leaving Swank with the task of kicking from almost 50 yards in the wind to win a road game on the last play....and it wasn't like we had OT as a backup. We were behind at the time.

That game was most def not on Swank - you are correct sir.

Also correct on the earlier piss poor comment - we need a kicker.

 

[DirkTheDeac]

In the five seasons since the Orange Bowl, we have lost 16 games by a touchdown or less....and 12 of those games were by 4 points or less:

2007: Nebraska-3, Virginia-1
2008: Navy-7, Miami-6, NC State-4, BC-3
2009: Baylor-3, BC-3, Navy-3, Miami-1, Ga Tech-3
2010: Ga Tech-4, Navy-1
2011: Syracuse-7, Notre Dame-7, Clemson-3

In 11 of those 16 games, we had 2nd half leads.....and 4th quarter leads in 8 of them.

This is what you are really good at, Bob. Seriously. Good post.

 

[PM Putin]

I think it's basically inside the 20, and 4th and 1 practically anywhere on the field. Can't say I agree with that last part just because the consequences are so severe if you don't get it, and the reward so seemingly small if you do convert from like your own 20.

Glad someone was actually paying attention the last time this came up and I cited this stuff. Maybe I'm doing some good here after all.

For fuck's sake, you just suck, you dumb fucking hillbilly.

 

[KanhojiAngre]

For fuck's sake, you just suck, you dumb fucking hillbilly.

 

[bojanglefunk]

I think it's basically inside the 20, and 4th and 1 practically anywhere on the field. Can't say I agree with that last part just because the consequences are so severe if you don't get it, and the reward so seemingly small if you do convert from like your own 20.

Glad someone was actually paying attention the last time this came up and I cited this stuff. Maybe I'm doing some good here after all.

Which part are you not agreeing with? It is exactly the lack of reward and high risk that makes coaches afraid to do it.

 

[KanhojiAngre]

Which part are you not agreeing with? It is exactly the lack of reward and high risk that makes coaches afraid to do it.

I don't even know what you're asking here...why do I disagree with going for it on 4th and 1 anywhere on the field?

 

[Complacent Deac]

Your logic ignores that extra points are dependent on touchdowns.

But, more than that, the expected return of going for a touchdown in the red zone on 4th down will almost always be more than the expected return of kicking a field goal. I think that's especially true when you have as good a passer as Tanner Price, in addition to how God awful our kickoff coverage has been.

Newman's kickoffs haven't been going very far lately. Just sayin'