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'17 Specials & '18 Midterms Thread

PhDeac said:
Remember in 2008 when people thought Democrats would continue to kill Republicans on social media?

That didn't happen.
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The heaviest users of Twitter and Facebook, in my experience, are the people Pubs tend to try to target with their bullshit. Generally white, rural/suburban, small-town folk. Especially adults that don't really understand technology and believe what they see on those sites as absolute truth. Just look at the FB Crazies thread. That shit (in general) does not get propagated by Dems, liberals, higher income, higher education people. The Pubs realized that American politics was a race to the bottom in the tech age, and they were way quicker than anyone could have anticipated in getting to that bottom.
 
PhDeac said:
Remember in 2008 when people thought Democrats would continue to kill Republicans on social media?

That didn't happen.
Click to expand...

That was back when social media was just for young people.
 
Exactly.
 
 
Lamar Smith won’t seek reelection to House

Smith’s 21st District, which takes in parts of Austin and San Antonio as well as rural counties to the west, has been solidly Republican in the past. Mitt Romney won nearly 60 percent of the vote there in 2012.

But Trump got 52 percent to Hillary Clinton’s 42 percent in the district in 2016, and several Democrats saw an opportunity to challenge Smith before he announced his retirement. One Democrat, veteran Joseph Kopser, outraised Smith in the third quarter and has over $219,000 in his campaign account.
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He was a solid RB. Had some good years for the Dolphins.
 
Went MONTE in that playoff game against the Colts
 
warak said:
no ethics in GOP these days...like they hand out an SOP for Corruption
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Democrats need to prepare for these type of ads and attacks, and they're not. IMO, Northam has run a terrible campaign - today one of the morning news shows compared his campaign to Hillary's last year - especially in how tone-deaf his campaign has been to rural Virginians. The Confederate memorial ad backfired terribly, and he's run as a bland, boring stiff with no common touch - this in an era where Populism is all the rage and being portrayed as part of the "establishment" is a political kiss of death. He should have tied Gillespie closer to Trump, but he's not, and instead, as a panelist noted, his campaign doesn't really seem to stand for anything, other than electing him governor. No doubt Gillespie's attacks are absurd, but they've been effective at firing up his base, and Northam seems to have no real response. Andrew Sullivan has a good article about the Virginia campaign and Northam's failures as a candidate. Northam might well still win (Hillary did win Virginia), but this is yet another race that shouldn't be this close, and yet it is. Sullivan's article is here: http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/11/how-the-democrats-are-failing-the-resistance.html.
 
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Democratic advantage for '18 might not be what it seems (POLL)

2018_MIDTERM_ELECTION_VOTE_PREFERENCE.png


Summary: GOTV is going to be incredibly important.
 
As always. That's why Russians shitclouding the election on social media is a big deal. And that's why Democrats have to fight fire with fire and use social media for GOTV efforts for young people, low income voters, and minorities.
 
Highland Deac said:
Democrats need to prepare for these type of ads and attacks, and they're not. IMO, Northam has run a terrible campaign - today one of the morning news shows compared his campaign to Hillary's last year - especially in how tone-deaf his campaign has been to rural Virginians. The Confederate memorial ad backfired terribly, and he's run as a bland, boring stiff with no common touch - this in an era where Populism is all the rage and being portrayed as part of the "establishment" is a political kiss of death. He should have tied Gillespie closer to Trump, but he's not, and instead, as a panelist noted, his campaign doesn't really seem to stand for anything, other than electing him governor. No doubt Gillespie's attacks are absurd, but they've been effective at firing up his base, and Northam seems to have no real response. Andrew Sullivan has a good article about the Virginia campaign and Northam's failures as a candidate. Northam might well still win (Hillary did win Virginia), but this is yet another race that shouldn't be this close, and yet it is. Sullivan's article is here: http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/11/how-the-democrats-are-failing-the-resistance.html.
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https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entr...ia-governors-race_us_59fc9562e4b0415a420b7623

Don't disagree that Northam hasn't run a good campaign, and that he actually is a bland and boring stiff. He's a long career VA politico, and it was his time to run - Herring, our AG, would probably be the better candidate. That said, stories like the above aren't helping either. We don't exactly need left wing groups calling him a racist and causing intra party strife a few days before the election. I'm glad Howard Dean, the group's founder, condemned them.

The 1 thing I disagree with you, however, is that this race shouldn't be close. Last time around, McAuliffe beat a right wing lunatic by all of 2.5%, and would have lost badly to Bill Bolling, had VA Pubs had the sense to nominate him. In 2009, McDonnell (the Pub nominee) beat Creigh Deeds by 15%. In 2005, a fairly popular Tim Kaine beat a SW VA yahoo by 5%. VA is still a fairly conservative state, and true progressives tend not to do well outside of NoVa, Richmond, Portsmouth and Cville. Our state senate is Pub by a couple of seats, and the house of delagates is heavily Pub. Pubs outnumber Dems in the house 7 to 4. And Gillispie almost took down Mark Warner in 2014, losing by less than 1%. Northam would have trounced Corey Stewart. But this race was destined to be pretty close. VA has leaned Dem in recent national elections (I believe because the Pub party has become so right wing), but it's somewhat mostly Pub otherwise. We're not Alabama by any means, but we're also a far cry from Maryland despite its proximity to Virginia.
 
What to watch tomorrow:

 
Seats targeted by Flippable:

Jennifer Carroll Foy
District: VA House District 2

Danica Roem
District: VA House District 13

Elizabeth Guzman
District: VA House District 31

David Reid
District: VA House District 32

Kathy Tran
District: VA House District 42

Manka Dhingra
District: WA Senate District 45

The Pod Save America crew is out canvassing for Jennifer Carroll Foy, a VMI grad who gave birth to twins this summer and then returned to the campaign trail.
 
PhDeac said:
As always. That's why Russians shitclouding the election on social media is a big deal. And that's why Democrats have to fight fire with fire and use social media for GOTV efforts for young people, low income voters, and minorities.
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Democrats struggle with turnout in non presidential elections
 
'17 Specials & '18 Midterms: Despite assault charge, Gianforte wins MT-AL

Right. They don't have to though.

That's a product of the hyper focus on the Presidency.
 
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