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'17 Specials & '18 Midterms Thread

New CNN poll:

Among Republicans, 68% say they approve of the way Trump is handling the relationship, further evidence that the GOP laity prefers Trump's approach to that of congressional Republicans. Asked directly whether they trust Trump or the congressional Republicans to handle major issues facing the country, 63% of Republicans choose Trump, 29% said Republicans in Congress.


That's not true among the overall public, though. Nearly half (47%) overall say they have more confidence in the GOP in Congress to handle major issues facing the country vs. 30% who say they have confidence in Trump. A sizable 17% trust neither.
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Any incumbent who crosses Trump is in big trouble.
 
PhDeac said:
New CNN poll:



Any incumbent who crosses Trump is in big trouble.
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It's also just further proof that the GOP (or certainly their voting base) is now Trump's party, not the GOP Establishment. For all their raw, visceral hatred of Democrats, I think one thing many people miss is how much Trumpites hate the Establishment of their own party. To be sure, I don't think the GOP base hates Romney or the Bushes as much as the Clintons or Democrats generally, but the animosity is definitely there. As time passes, more and more traditional Republican pols are going to fall by the wayside, and more and more Trump-type Republicans are going to be elected, like Moore. Since Reagan's first election in 1980, the GOP has steadily moved from traditional Wall Street, Main Street-type conservatism to hard-right social and economic conservatism, and it now appears they're moving even further to the right, incredible as it is.
 
PhDeac said:
New CNN poll:



Any incumbent who crosses Trump is in big trouble.
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That can't be right. 'Pubs listened to Americans in the way that Democrats didn't, which is why they have control of the Senate and the House. President Trump is, depending on the argument, either a soft rebuke to mainstream 'Pubs or an anomaly that doesn't represent the Republican Party.
 
This poll seems a little fishy to me but interesting news nonetheless.

 
There's no way 11% are unsure. I'm guessing they lean Moore anyway.
 
PhDeac said:
There's no way 11% are unsure. I'm guessing they lean Moore anyway.
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Election is in December right? I actually thought the undecideds would be higher at this point. What's left of sane conservatives in that state probably fall into the undecided camp if I had to guess.
 
Right. I don't think they're truly unsure. They're leaning Moore. Jones has to hope they just don't vote.
 
PhDeac said:
Right. I don't think they're truly unsure. They're leaning Moore. Jones has to hope they just don't vote.
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I'd be shocked if Jones comes anywhere close to winning. We're talking Deep South Alabama here, and I've just assumed that whoever got the GOP Senate nomination was a lock. Moore's social and cultural views alone should win him a comfortable majority of the vote in Bible Belt Alabama.
 
PhDeac said:
Right. I don't think they're truly unsure. They're leaning Moore. Jones has to hope they just don't vote.
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I believe you are correct. Most of that 11% are Pubs who voted for Strange and are having a difficult time stomaching Moore. I expect most of that will go Moore's way once they get to the booth.
 
Alabama electing a D in a Statewide election? Haha that's a good one. There could be pictures of Moore fornicating with a pig and he would still win
 
flyer-without-kaya-oct-19-1-747x1024.png
 
birdman said:
In the case of Alabama though, the voters were correct: Moore is far more aligned with Trumpism than Luther Strange. They saw right through the establishment's effort to force Trump into endorsing a McConell yes man.
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The best was Trump at his campaign rally trying to distance Strange from McConnell. They don't even know each other! He never met the guy!
 
avalon said:
The fact that the poll is from Fox makes it seem like a GOTV motivator. (ThinkProgress points out that they didn't screen for registered or likely voters.)

That being said, if birdman and crew pull this off, I'll donate to the victory party because they will have earned it many times over.
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Real Clear Politics is giving Moore a 4.4 point advantage across all the polls.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...ecial_election_moore_vs_jones-6271.html#polls

There is a recency bias in that metric affected by the FoxNews Poll being most recent at tied and the poll that had Moore 22 points ahead was outside the RCP average window. I waver between thoughts of: "local Dems are deluding them selves and wasting money donating to this campaign" and "Holy fuck, a certifiably insane man is going to be my senator I should start marching in the streets today!"
 
Oh man, look up the Nainan story. I think he is like a 50 yr old dude who marketed himself as a millennial.
 
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