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2013 Kentucky Derby- The Day After

$98 Bet:

$15 W/P Goldenscents
$10 W/P Orb
$4 Exacta Box Goldenscents/Orb/Revolutionary
$2 Exacta Boxes- Verranzano with the other three
$1 Trifecta box those four

Orb pays $12.80/7.40 - $20.20 or $101.

Net profit $3 YIPPPE

The big one loses $81 because of the damn Golden Soul.
 
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Golden soul was a bracket buster but I fuckin love it. Gotta get a horse. Teared up during my old ky home. Next year boys next year. Also gonna drop coin on next triple crown race so we should regroup. Orb triple crown 2013!!!1!!
 
ps my mom, at the derby, won like a ton of money had top three in several diff bets. I was like what? How? And she liked golden soul jockey....se la vi
 
Psyched for Shug. Always seemed like a solid dude. Went to my high school.
 
I think it was 28k but I could have heard it wrong.
 
I think the Pick 4 paid about $180.

I wish I looked at the raced yesterday as Wise Dan (10th) was a single and the 9th needed two picks.
 
Here are a some thoughts the day after the Derby:

IOrb - If he gets by the Preakness, there may be a very, very short field in the Belmont. I wouldn't be shocked if there are only 5-7 horses in the Belmont if Orb wins in two weeks. Every race he's getting better and he can run all day.

Mike Smith, jockey of Palace Malice - I've loved the way this Hall of Famer has ridden and handled himself for the past quarter century. He's one of the good guys. But now I getting really pissed. Last year his insane ride cost Bodemeister a potential Triple Crown. His ride on Palace Malice yesterday was even crazier. This horse had NEVER gone to the lead in any race. so smith not sends him but sends in a time that was only 3/5 of second slower for the first half than the best/second best SPRINTER in the country ran earlier in a race that was nearly 40% shorter. WTF was he thinking? He basically ruined the race for several horses.

Javier Castellano - jockey on Normandy Invasion- I'm not sure if should be about the jockey or the horse. Earlier I said Normandy Invasion finds a way to lose. Three races ago he didn't leave the gate cleanly. Two races ago he got stuck behind some horses and just missed. Yesterday, Castellano moved Normandy WAAAAAAAAY too son. He had the position. If he had waited, he would caused Golden Soul and Revolutionary to slow down. Normandy Invasion would not have beaten Orb, but with a good ride, he would have easily come in second.

Shug McGaughey, trainer of Orb - The Hall of Famer is a throwback. Todd Pletcher trained five Derby horses for five owners and has hundreds of owners in a his stable. Shug has the Phipps family. That's it and that's fine with him. Their horses don't run just to run. They don't run if he says they don't run. The Phipps' don't question him. Shug and the Phipps live for Kentucky Racing. It's great they finally got their Derby.

Other Horses Going Forward to Preakness -First of all there can only be fourteen horses in the Preakness. I think 8-12 is a likely number. I'd guess Normandy Invasion, Golden Soul, Revolutionary, Oxbow, MyLute and Will Take Charge will in Baltimore. Beware if Goldenscents does with another rider. Watch out for Bob Baffert sending some horse. Especially look to see if Governor Charlie goes.

Orb has soundly beaten the best three year olds. He's beaten many multiple times. He could be special.
 
Seriously, the "rj knows horseshit" tagger needs to come forward, accept pawsrep, and promise to add that to every tag RJ starts forever. Or I am going to do it. I check this thread purely to laugh at that tag over and over again. I think even RJ has to find it funny.
 
Smith really screwed up trying to analyze the Derby.....who do you think Orb's biggest challengers are? Oxbow, Will Take Charge, Normandy Invasion, and Gov Charlie? I'm still not ready to give up on Goldenscents, it seems that Krigger pulled him up after realizing he wasn't going to win....maybe saving dome juice for Preakness since that jerk off Smith screwed up the pace?
 
From what I've seen in the past couple of races, no one is going to challenge Orb.

If Governor Charlie is healthy and tight he could challenge.

Goldenscents had a race like the Derby in the San Felipe and then ran lights out in the Santa Anita Derby. Maybe he can do it again. Maybe O'Neill will switch Bejarano for Krigger.

With less traffic could another horse beat Orb? Possibly, but not likely. After six furlongs, Orb was one length ahead of Revolutionary. At the end he was 3 1/2 and drawing off.

I'd be very surprised if Orb is over 3/2 for the Preakness.
 
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It's intriguing to me that Will Take Charge was matching Orb as he made his move to the front, and then got blocked by a swerving Verrazano I believe? Of course there is no telling if Will Take Charge would have been able to sustain the run, even if he didn't get blocked, but it's something...
 
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