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2019 College Basketball Coaching Carousel

Here's what I posted last year regarding Wake vs the ACC's football schools:

WFU Lurker said:
It's easy to be a prisoner of the moment and say that it's really hard to win at Wake, but that just isn't really true. [name redacted] wasn't able to win here. Manning hasn't been able to win much here so far. But in the 20 years before that the program won a lot, especially compared to those four programs. Virginia Tech and Miami in particular are in the middle of great stretches, but that doesn't make them great jobs because it isn't clear they will have the consistent level of support needed to maintain that success under different coaches. Wake does have that. The easist proof point is the Shah basketball complex. We broke ground on a $40 million basketball facility after a 6 year stretch with a high water mark of 17 wins.

Beyond that, look at salary. Even with his modest success, Manning does better than Larranaga (by ~$300k), Christian (by ~$700k), and Brownell (by ~$150k). And, after one good but not great season, Manning got a 6 year extension. Look, we obviously aren't paying Manning like Virginia Tech is paying Buzz Williams, but he hasn't accomplished as much. Based on what we paid Grobe when he was in demand, there's no reason to think we wouldn't give a basketball coach a huge salary if he was successful.

Finally, look at reported attendance. As discussed extensively in the past, this isn't a literal measure of attendance but it is a measure of support:
-Wake Forest: 9520
-Miami: 7006
-Virginia Tech: 6658
-Boston College: 3411
-Clemson: 8703
(this is for the 2015-16 season)
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The one addendum is that, based on all the different rumors, it now seems likely that Manning actually makes more or less what Williams' did at VT.

The conference coaches also rated Wake as a better job than BC, Miami, Pittsburgh, and Virginia Tech. This likely does not factor in the new practice facility, which should move us up at least a couple of spots (facilities ranked 12th here).

ETA: forgot the link: https://watchstadium.com/news/acc-c...-job-in-conference-unc-third-best-10-04-2018/
 
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I hate it for VT...I fear they are on their way back to the ACC basement with us. If Mike Young was a choice for Wake, I'm glad we kept Manning and can try again later. He has has spent an entire 30 year career at a crappy school, has NO experience recruiting at a high level, has struggled to sustain any limited national success he's had, only has one season worthy of an at-large NCAA bid, and has his first truly nationally relevant team in 17 years as the head coach. It's far more likely that this year is a fluke than that it's something he can reproduce, much less sustain, at the next level. And honestly, he jumped multiple levels. If he was a great coach, it would have been more evident 12-15 years ago and he would have been hired away to the next level 10+ years ago.
KP ranks over his career:

2003: 200
2004: 287
2005: 223
2006: 251
2007: 249
2008: 203
2009: 222
2010: 82
2011: 84
2012: 197
2013: 246
2014: 192
2015: 96
2016: 187
2017: 142
2018: 163
2019: 18

One of these things is not like the other.

As far as I can tell, the core of their team this year is the same as the team that was ranked 163 last year, the two leading scorers are graduting (42+% of their scoring), and there's nothing special about their two 2019 signees, which means they likely drop back down to 160+, if not 200+ next year.
 
RacerDeac said:
I hate it for VT...I fear they are on their way back to the ACC basement with us. If Mike Young was a choice for Wake, I'm glad we kept Manning and can try again later. He has has spent an entire 30 year career at a crappy school, has NO experience recruiting at a high level, has struggled to sustain any limited national success he's had, only has one season worthy of an at-large NCAA bid, and has his first truly nationally relevant team in 17 years as the head coach. It's far more likely that this year is a fluke than that it's something he can reproduce, much less sustain, at the next level. And honestly, he jumped multiple levels. If he was a great coach, it would have been more evident 12-15 years ago and he would have been hired away to the next level 10+ years ago.
KP ranks over his career:

2003: 200
2004: 287
2005: 223
2006: 251
2007: 249
2008: 203
2009: 222
2010: 82
2011: 84
2012: 197
2013: 246
2014: 192
2015: 96
2016: 187
2017: 142
2018: 163
2019: 18

One of these things is not like the other.

As far as I can tell, the core of their team this year is the same as the team that was ranked 163 last year, the two leading scorers are graduting (42+% of their scoring), and there's nothing special about their two 2019 signees, which means they likely drop back down to 160+, if not 200+ next year.
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Maybe so but they would beat the ever living crap out of Wake and Young would coach circles around Manning.

Unlike Manning, Mike Young has beaten UNC and it was at UNC last year.
 
DeacWatcher said:
Maybe so but they would beat the ever living crap out of Wake and Young would coach circles around Manning.
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Coach circles around Manning, sure. Beat the crap out of Wake? This one season, sure. Over the course of Young's career, not really.

DeacWatcher said:
Unlike Manning, Mike Young has beaten UNC and it was at UNC last year.
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Who cares? Rating a coach on the strength of a win over UNC, despite coaching a team ranked 163, is about as absurd as rating Mike Young ready for the ACC based on 1/17th of his career at Wofford. He's spent 30 years recruiting 2-3 star players to Wofford, many (most?) not even appearing in the popular recruirting databases. He seems hopelessly over his head taking over the VT job, but it's a hell of a way to retire, successful or not.
 
Agree that Young hire was risky, but what really shocked me was the reported contract terms: $12 million for 5 years ($2.4 million per year). Why?

Young's salary at Wofford was $161,043: https://www.ogboards.com/forums/showthread.php/31142-2019-College-Basketball-Coaching-Carousel/page37

While there was no doubt that Wofford was about to give him a nice raise, even if they tripled his salary, Young was not going to make $500K/year if he stayed at Wofford.

Didn't seem like any other Power V schools were offering Young, so VT had all of the leverage. When making a hire with risk, you would've thought that VT would have hedged, with a shorter contract for less money per year (maybe with incentives that could sweeten the pot and add years) so that if Young was clearly a bad hire by year 2 or 3, the financial commitment would not be an impediment to moving on. Just crazy how Power V schools are throwing around the cash.
 
KitchinDeac said:
We are a shitty program, at an academically rigorous school, with a cavernous stadium that we can't half fill. This idea that we can look down on programs like Virginia Tech is a fantasy. We are like State fans in the late 90s and early 00s who thought that National Championships in the 70s and 80s still mattered. Wake is not a good job. The last two coaches we hired failed miserably. The last coach with any success was unceremoniously shown the door. Who in the world do you think we are going to hire? You think we are going to compete with State Flagship SEC schools for a head coach?
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RUN AWAY!!! You Donald Ross addiction is becoming too strong. Get out of the office, block his texts and calls. You can do it!!!

We'll help.
 
Pilchard said:
Agree that Young hire was risky, but what really shocked me was the reported contract terms: $12 million for 5 years ($2.4 million per year). Why?

Young's salary at Wofford was $161,043: https://www.ogboards.com/forums/showthread.php/31142-2019-College-Basketball-Coaching-Carousel/page37

While there was no doubt that Wofford was about to give him a nice raise, even if they tripled his salary, Young was not going to make $500K/year if he stayed at Wofford.

Didn't seem like any other Power V schools were offering Young, so VT had all of the leverage. When making a hire with risk, you would've thought that VT would have hedged, with a shorter contract for less money per year (maybe with incentives that could sweeten the pot and add years) so that if Young was clearly a bad hire by year 2 or 3, the financial commitment would not be an impediment to moving on. Just crazy how Power V schools are throwing around the cash.
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Not a big difference, but he made $202,804 in 2016: https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/570314422/201801359349307265/IRS990
 
I've lost track of the ridiculousness of Manning's contract. How much will the buyout be next spring? Around $12M, right?
 
Pilchard said:
Agree that Young hire was risky, but what really shocked me was the reported contract terms: $12 million for 5 years ($2.4 million per year). Why?
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It feels very Wellmanesque.
 
Ayo said:
I've lost track of the ridiculousness of Manning's contract. How much will the buyout be next spring? Around $12M, right?
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With the information out there (limited) the contract has guaranteed portions and the issue isn't the buyout but the total value of the guarantee.
 
DeacWatcher said:
Maybe so but they would beat the ever living crap out of Wake and Young would coach circles around Manning.

Unlike Manning, Mike Young has beaten UNC and it was at UNC last year.
Click to expand...

In Manning's defense the Wake program has been really unlucky with players leaving the program early, transfers into the program not working out, Wake's recruits not being ACC caliber players, Wake's defense being terrible, Wake's offense being awful, and the other coaches in the ACC being much better than Manning. Manning's results at Wake would have been much better if Wake had been more lucky.
 
YankeeInAtlanta said:
In Manning's defense the Wake program has been really unlucky with players leaving the program early, transfers into the program not working out, Wake's recruits not being ACC caliber players, Wake's defense being terrible, Wake's offense being awful, and the other coaches in the ACC being much better than Manning. Manning's results at Wake would have been much better if Wake had been more lucky.
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This reminded me of the following:

[After a reporter pointed out that State went on runs of 12-0, 20-4, 13-2 and 11-2 over the course of the game] “That 12-0 run, the 7-point play was part of it, okay? And our radio people told us if you take away those runs that we outscored them by 19.
 
DeacsATS said:
And the rumor I saw on Twitter was that they were going to up it to $275,000 if he would have stayed!

Yeah, no brainer for him to take the VT job.

Still think it was a bad hire.
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Same. Probably slightly better than Odom, but about the same. I'm disappointed for Tech. What it says is VT has the $$ but couldn't entice guys like Cronin, Willard and Wojo.
 
cville deac said:
Same. Probably slightly better than Odom, but about the same. I'm disappointed for Tech. What it says is VT has the $$ but couldn't entice guys like Cronin, Willard and Wojo.
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well at least you also have your UVA fandom to get you through
 
Wake is a good job. We have a track record of recruiting great players and winning in the regular season despite not having great coaches.

That should give us an edge on VT.
 
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KitchinDeac said:
We are a shitty program, at an academically rigorous school, with a cavernous stadium that we can't half fill. This idea that we can look down on programs like Virginia Tech is a fantasy. We are like State fans in the late 90s and early 00s who thought that National Championships in the 70s and 80s still mattered. Wake is not a good job. The last two coaches we hired failed miserably. The last coach with any success was unceremoniously shown the door. Who in the world do you think we are going to hire? You think we are going to compete with State Flagship SEC schools for a head coach?
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I completely disagree. And frankly, it infuriates me when I hear Wake fans with this attitude. Primarily because it's wrong. Wake is a far better job than a lot of our fans give us credit for. If Wake Forest (and I'm not just talking about athletics) were as bad as some of our own fans think we are, we'd have been kicked out of the ACC years ago. Most schools have fans who walk around with rose-colored glasses on. Ours walk around wearing shit-covered glasses.
 
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