2020 Democratic Presidential Nominees

[MHBDemon]

Bernie crushes in the polling among 18-49 year olds. YDSA, DSA, Our Rev collectively show a strong base of support from Gen Z/millennial outreach. The kids love Bernie.

 

[wsc8521s]

Yeah, would be interested in more of an argument regarding how Bernie's millennial outreach is bad. Not exactly an easy voter group to reach normally based on age

 

[cville deac]

Biden/Gabbard will be the ticket.

First, I don't know that Biden has the staying power. But no way in hell is Gabbard on the ticket. She's a definite 1 on the binary scale, but she doesn't have a history of playing well in the sandbox with others, and she doesn't help Biden or anyone else in the swing states. If Biden gets the nomination, he needs to look to someone younger with talent. For a while, I thought Klobuchar would be a good veep, but she doesn't register excitement. The person who does register some excitement and who is an effective communicator is Buttigieg. Let's face it, no one is thrilled by the prospect of Biden being the nominee. But add a young star to be waiting in the wings, and you wouldn't have quite the same experience argument against Buttigieg in 4 years because he's been veep.

 

[PhDeac]

I can't wait to see Biden make a gaffe about a young gay candidate.

 

[wsc8521s]

I want to beat Trump. I think you think you have the prescription to do so, but I don't see it.

The Biden prescription, as far as I can make it out, is let's do the same thing we did last time, except worse, but this time run an old white guy that the rubes will like because he's unfiltered.

Will it work for this one election? Perhaps, it's a dumb fucking country, but at least people largely realize how awful Trump is. Any reason to suggest it'll lead to long lasting Democratic success? Nosiree Bob.

 

[ChrisL68]

The Biden prescription, as far as I can make it out, is let's do the same thing we did last time, except worse, but this time run an old white guy that the rubes will like because he's unfiltered.

Will it work for this one election? Perhaps, it's a dumb fucking country, but at least people largely realize how awful Trump is. Any reason to suggest it'll lead to long lasting Democratic success? Nosiree Bob.

This idea that this election is going to lead to some massive progressive policy shifts is, IMO, a pipe dream. First you have to get to 50 senators, which is going to be tough, and then even then you are going to have all of the moderate Dem senators to red and purple states to overcome provided that you completely eliminate the filibuster.

So if you want to elect somebody with massive policy prescriptions that will get you all excited and will eventually disappoint you when they don't achieve any of it, then have at it.

The only way that Dems are going to have long-term success is if their base religiously and consistently votes for Dem candidates and moves the needle to the left through the acquisition and retention of power. As long as they have unrealistic expectations as to what can be achieved and vote based on their "excitement" level, then they will be easy pickings for the right to gum up the works

.

 

[wsc8521s]

Of course it's not an immediate prospect. It will take time. I think the only way you build the kind of excitement to win multiple elections is if you're actually striving for something, as opposed to just the return to 2008-2016 (though not necessarily a completely undoing of 2016-2020) that Biden and his ilk are offering.

Just because it's going to be a tough process shouldn't mean you just throw your hands up and settle for a slightly better situation than the status quo, and then let the Republicans come back even more batshit in two and four years and wipe the floor

 

[Gooner]

Prediction for tonight: Biden gets his ass handed to him at least twice by Sanders/Harris/Buttigieg, but next week’s polls see a Biden bump

 

[PhDeac]

This idea that this election is going to lead to some massive progressive policy shifts is, IMO, a pipe dream. First you have to get to 50 senators, which is going to be tough, and then even then you are going to have all of the moderate Dem senators to red and purple states to overcome provided that you completely eliminate the filibuster.

So if you want to elect somebody with massive policy prescriptions that will get you all excited and will eventually disappoint you when they don't achieve any of it, then have at it.

The only way that Dems are going to have long-term success is if their base religiously and consistently votes for Dem candidates and moves the needle to the left through the acquisition and retention of power. As long as they have unrealistic expectations as to what can be achieved and vote based on their "excitement" level, then they will be easy pickings for the right to gum up the works

.

When conservatives get elected, those elections lead to massive conservative policy shifts, but it's a pipe dream if progressives get elected for those elections to lead to massive progressive policy shifts.

The big difference is that the far right has either purged or overwhelmed their weak moderates and progressives haven't. But yeah, Democrats have to get out and vote Democrat instead of bitching and complaining.

 

[ChrisL68]

Of course it's not an immediate prospect. It will take time. I think the only way you build the kind of excitement to win multiple elections is if you're actually striving for something, as opposed to just the return to 2008-2016 (though not necessarily a completely undoing of 2016-2020) that Biden and his ilk are offering.

Just because it's going to be a tough process shouldn't mean you just throw your hands up and settle for a slightly better situation than the status quo, and then let the Republicans come back even more batshit in two and four years and wipe the floor

So you think a progressive who is unable to achieve any of his/her campaign platforms is going to excite the country four years from now?

I think the entire democratic party is moving to the left on several issues. Biden will be just as successful in actually achieving things as Warren for the most part.

 

[Buttermaker]

No validation. HRC was way better than Biden is.

Just don't want the same mistakes repeated. It really matters, to me at least

Why do you think so?

 

[Highland Deac]

This idea that this election is going to lead to some massive progressive policy shifts is, IMO, a pipe dream. First you have to get to 50 senators, which is going to be tough, and then even then you are going to have all of the moderate Dem senators to red and purple states to overcome.

So if you want to elect somebody with massive policy prescriptions that will get you all excited and will eventually disappoint you, then have at it.

The only way that Dems are going to have long-term success is if their base religiously and consistently votes for Dem candidates and moves the needle to the left through the acquisition and retention of power. As long as they have unrealistic expectations as to what can be achieved and vote based on their "excitement" level, then they will be easy pickings for the right to gum up the works

.

IMO, one issue for Democrats as a whole is that since Bill Clinton's presidency they seem to have the odd notion that holding the White House is the only thing that matters. As long as Bill or Obama were in the Oval Office, most Democrats didn't seem too concerned that the party as a whole was suffering devastating losses in Congress and in state legislatures and statehouses around the country. Certainly it's better to hold the presidency than not, but to be truly effective the Democrats desperately need to build up their bench, not only in Congress but in state legislatures as well. Democratic voters can't afford to elect a POTUS and then take the next one or two off-year elections off and see their congressional and state legislature membership get decimated.

 

[wsc8521s]

So you think a progressive who is unable to achieve any of his/her campaign platforms is going to excite the country four years from now?

If you frame it correctly and point to how it's the Republicans who are obstructing popular policies, then why not?

I think the entire democratic party is moving to the left on several issues. Biden will be just as successful in actually achieving things as Warren for the most part.

Based on what? We know what Warren stands for and fights for, she's been doing consistently it for years. Meanwhile Joe is spending his time talking about how good Republicans are and telling donors their lives are not going to be affected by his administration. Forgive me for not believing he's going to be orchestrating significant left-wing change

 

[Buttermaker]

Thing that fucks me up is the two best candidates (Warren, Sanders) from a policy perspective are old and haven't done a terrific job with Gen Z/millennial outreach, PLUS boomers have convinced themselves they have the key to "electability" which is just the Democrats they're used to, of which there are several in the technocrat mold, and the ones that really suck from a policy perspective (Beto, Biden, Booker, Gabbard) are the ones the establishment wants more than anything else.

People (including some Boomers) who think Biden is the most electable base that off his ability to appeal to moderates, including many that Trump pulled in last time but don't want to vote for him again. None of the "progressives" are likely to do that. No moderate is going to vote for Sanders, Booker, etc. Warren? Doubtful.

 

[Shooshmoo]

Biden's announcement bounce has faded and he has settled into a nice polling lead. I am curious what magical occurance is going to happen before fall that will cause his support base to all abandon him. That seems like wishful thinking.

Somebody might end up beating him, but it would be a long slog.

As others drop off, given the overall progressive bent of the candidates, don't you think their supporters go to Warren/Bernie? And if either of them drop out, the other gets all or most of their supporters.

 

[ChrisL68]

When conservatives get elected, those elections lead to massive conservative policy shifts, but it's a pipe dream if progressives get elected for those elections to lead to massive progressive policy shifts.

The big difference is that the far right has either purged or overwhelmed their weak moderates and progressives haven't. But yeah, Democrats have to get out and vote Democrat instead of bitching and complaining.

The only legislative policy they have passed is tax cuts, and that was because they could pass it in reconciliation without filibuster risk.

And conceptually it is much easier to pass tax cuts then passing some huge overhaul of the health care system in this country. And even the tax cuts they messed up and got some things wrong that the dems won't let them change now.

 

[ChrisL68]

If you frame it correctly and point to how it's the Republicans who are obstructing popular policies, then why not?



Based on what? We know what Warren stands for and fights for, she's been doing consistently it for years. Meanwhile Joe is spending his time talking about how good Republicans are and telling donors their lives are not going to be affected by his administration. Forgive me for not believing he's going to be orchestrating significant left-wing change

Joe is saying what he thinks he needs to say to get moderates to vote for him. Again, nobody is going to be orchestrating significant left-wing change because they won't have the votes to do so.

 

[MHBDemon]

ChrisL is always at the centrist rally.

 

[ChrisL68]

As others drop off, given the overall progressive bent of the candidates, don't you think their supporters go to Warren/Bernie? And if either of them drop out, the other gets all or most of their supporters.

I think Warren has a better chance of getting a higher % of those voters than Bernie, but a significant portion of those voters would go to Biden from the other candidates. Again, the Dem party as a whole isn't as progressive as you imagine it to be.

 

[TownieDeac]

Bernie crushes in the polling among 18-49 year olds. YDSA, DSA, Our Rev collectively show a strong base of support from Gen Z/millennial outreach. The kids love Bernie.

Yeah, would be interested in more of an argument regarding how Bernie's millennial outreach is bad. Not exactly an easy voter group to reach normally based on age

Polling or GOTV? I’m happy to be wrong here.