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2020 Presidential Election: Biden v. Trump

this guy does the best Trump impression. he's really able to capture the aimless ramblings.

 
birdman said:
Can we just pause for a moment a reflect on how fucked up it is that this election is even remotely close? At worst this should be 534-4, but here we are worried about PA, FL, IA, WI, all going to Trump.
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I wonder what would need to happen to have a blowout election again?
 
That video above, which is hilarious by the way, somehow led me to Lynda Carter, WHO IS 69 YEARS OLD!

 
BarcaDeac said:
it's always the same goddamn states we have to focus on. fuck the Electoral College.
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I've been beating that drum for over a year. Nationally, it's an 8-9% race. In the past, 8-10 point blowouts have produced EV blowouts or at least definitive wins. But here, we could well have a 8 point national race with a 290-248 EV count.
 
Shooshmoo said:
That video above, which is hilarious by the way, somehow led me to Lynda Carter, WHO IS 69 YEARS OLD!

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Man, I guess as I rapidly approach 40, 70 isn't too old for me anymore.
 
ImTheCaptain said:
without COVID, Trump wins this no problems
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I’ve had that thought and conversation with friends many times recently. It’s legitimately terrifying how much of a landslide this election would be.
 
ImTheCaptain said:
without COVID, Trump wins this no problems
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myDeaconmyhand said:
As much as I would like to pontificate and bullshit like normal about what Biden needs to do to defeat Trump, this Pandemic has shuffled the deck. I have no clue what voters are going to do. These electoral circumstances are unprecedented.
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Yeah, I still don't know. I've seen probably 20 articles about how early voting turnout has been massive, and that far more young people have voted than previously, but that turnout increase doesn't seem to be changing the projections of the swing states.
 
I'm having real highs and lows thinking about the results. It'll be like "Texas is now a toss-up!" "Biden up 17 in Wisconsin!" but then my 2016 PTSD kicks in and I'll remember how close it will be, especially with all of the Republican fuckery in place.
 
BarcaDeac said:
it's always the same goddamn states we have to focus on. fuck the Electoral College.
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If the electoral college didn't exist, where would the attention be?

For one, republicans would be looking to cut down their losses in states like CA and NY. Maybe swing a million votes or more? Second, they would look to add votes where their base is strong throughout the south.

Similarly, the Democrats would try to shrink the margins throughout the south and build margins in New England, the middle Atlantic states and the west coast.

Winning or losing contested states by five digits wouldn't be a big deal if either side could make up the numbers in base states.

Thus we might see a more polarized country as each party might pour more effort and energy into getting bigger votes from states in their base rather than trying to coax swing voters in swing states into voting their way.
 
If Hillary had won, you have to think she would have been very practical and precise when it came to dealing with covid and a lot of lives would have been saved. People would be furious with her however since they would not be able to get haircuts and go to bars and churches and she would have been an unpopular incumbent. the republicans would have had an excellent chance of regaining the white house and keeping the senate and having their party in charge for a number of years (with the right candidate of course). INstead, the republicans choose Trump and then died on the smallest hill possible for trump and their party is in shambles and probably has turned off a generation of voters with their bootlicking of trumps racisim and misogyny.
 
Heard some slightly encouraging news today:

After Trump won in 2016, some adjustments were made to the polling process and the resulting predictive modeling to account for biases that favored Clinton and failed to account for voters leaning to Trump. Currently, as a result of learning from those mistakes, the thinking is that the polls are more accurate or to the extent they are wrong the polls are more geared to benefit Trump.

IOW, to the extent the polls do not reflect how the voting is likely to go, at least some pollsters think that the current numbers don't account for the level of support for Biden.

Not going to feel comfortable until it's over, but it's an encouraging notion that polls may not fully reflect the support that Biden haa built.
 
^Something I have considered in thinking about the polling now vs. 2016 or even 2018.

Pollsters, like any other business, need to stay in business and be relevant. After the miscalls in 2016, you had to figure they would step back and regroup about where they went wrong or flat out missed. If they kept the SOSO, they would be as relevant as floppy disc today. They had to improve to be worthy of consideration or else it's Survey Monkey.
 
ImTheCaptain said:
without COVID, Trump wins this no problems
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That's not true. Looking back through the poll averages on 538, on 3/1/20, Biden had a 4 point lead. On 4/1, 5/1 and 6/1, Biden had an average lead of 6. It's been between 7-9 points on the 1st of the last 4 months. The Administration's response to the rona and to a lesser extent the Floyd/Taylor aftermaths has widened Biden's lead. But he still had a lead before the rona shutdown. Trump could still have won the EC with a 4 point popular vote loss, but by no means did Trump have a cakewalk. And with an approval rating between 40-44%, he never had a chance of winning the popular vote.
 
WRS said:
I’ve had that thought and conversation with friends many times recently. It’s legitimately terrifying how much of a landslide this election would be.
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I'm not sure why this would be true. I see it as a repeat of 16 again. Loses PV, wins close EC because EC is pure trash.
 
what would it take to eliminate the EC?

especially if the Dems have House, Senate and Presidency
 
SC DEAC said:
If Hillary had won, you have to think she would have been very practical and precise when it came to dealing with covid and a lot of lives would have been saved. People would be furious with her however since they would not be able to get haircuts and go to bars and churches and she would have been an unpopular incumbent. the republicans would have had an excellent chance of regaining the white house and keeping the senate and having their party in charge for a number of years (with the right candidate of course). INstead, the republicans choose Trump and then died on the smallest hill possible for trump and their party is in shambles and probably has turned off a generation of voters with their bootlicking of trumps racisim and misogyny.
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hmm. so hypothetically would you have rather Hillary won in 2016, and Trump won in 2020? You either get Trump letting the pandemic spread, or you get Trump handling the COVID economic depression. I think you have to choose Trump 2020, because presumably even the worst neoliberal Clinton presidency, she's going to handle the pandemic like a sane and capable government official and that probably saves tens of thousands of lives over Trumps fucked up strategy.
 
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