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2020 Presidential Election: Biden v. Trump

Oh man. That’s is brilliant. “We’ve got the good candy. Right and alt-right Twix.”
 
myDeaconmyhand said:
In what way would someone need to “follow politics” to realize their needs aren’t being met? Are you saying that people are more satisfied with the state of the nation *because* they follow politics? I have to assume your referring to material needs. Not trying to be snarky here, but my paycheck stays the same no matter how much MSNBC I watch. Rachel Maddow isn’t covering her viewers health insurance premiums or helping out with daycare.
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One of the issues is that those who don’t follow politics don’t realize that Dems play a lot of defense on their behalf. People may not see their lives getting better, but things would be a lot worse if the GOP had control of all three branches at once.
 
People who don't follow politics probably don't know most of the changes made on their behalf like ACA. That's why new programs require massive PR campaigns to inform voters.
 
DrG41 said:
^Something I have considered in thinking about the polling now vs. 2016 or even 2018.

Pollsters, like any other business, need to stay in business and be relevant. After the miscalls in 2016, you had to figure they would step back and regroup about where they went wrong or flat out missed. If they kept the SOSO, they would be as relevant as floppy disc today. They had to improve to be worthy of consideration or else it's Survey Monkey.
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I hope that's true. I will say that if pollsters are shown to be wrong again, it will likely wreck their credibility for many years to come. Frank Luntz (whom I generally don't care for) was probably right when he said recently that if Trump wins the election that his profession is probably finished, or at least won't be nearly as trusted going forward. Who is going to trust polls in 2024 if they missed this year so badly, and were off in the battleground states in 2016?
 
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cville deac said:
That's not true. Looking back through the poll averages on 538, on 3/1/20, Biden had a 4 point lead. On 4/1, 5/1 and 6/1, Biden had an average lead of 6. It's been between 7-9 points on the 1st of the last 4 months. The Administration's response to the rona and to a lesser extent the Floyd/Taylor aftermaths has widened Biden's lead. But he still had a lead before the rona shutdown. Trump could still have won the EC with a 4 point popular vote loss, but by no means did Trump have a cakewalk. And with an approval rating between 40-44%, he never had a chance of winning the popular vote.
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Agreed. I do think that Trump would have had a better chance of winning without the pandemic, but he was never going to win this election by a landslide. His approval ratings never approached 50% throughout his presidency, and he would have struggled to beat any decent Democratic candidate. I also agree that even if he wins reelection he was never going to win the national popular vote, pandemic or no. Had the pandemic never happened he could have run on his "great" economy, but he would still have been dragged down by his personality and tweets and all the other shit that he's done for the past four years that have led so many people to hate and despise him. He might well have won (hell, he might still win even now) but with or without the pandemic he was going to struggle to just win an EC majority. There was never going to be a landslide, imo.
 
Latest news on the epic Hunter Biden scandal: Tucker Carlson said on his show tonight that his "team had acquired incriminating documents. However, they sent them from Washington to Los Angeles, and the documents disappeared. And they neglected to make any copies. So now the only copy of the documents that would nail the probable next President of the United States are gone." Tucker also claimed that the packages were "opened" and implied that the incriminating materials were stolen, no doubt by nefarious Biden agents. Or maybe his dog ate it. If only Trump and his Postmaster General hadn't screwed up the postal service they could have just mailed it. LOL.

Link: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/10/tucker-carlson-lost-only-copy-of-documents-nailing-biden.html
 
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Highland Deac said:
Latest news on the epic Hunter Biden scandal: Tucker Carlson said on his show tonight that his "team had acquired incriminating documents. However, they sent them from Washington to Los Angeles, and the documents disappeared. And they neglected to make any copies. So now the only copy of the documents that would nail the probable next President of the United States are gone." Tucker also claimed that the packages were "opened" and implied that the incriminating materials were stolen, no doubt by nefarious Biden agents. Or maybe his dog ate it. If only Trump and his Postmaster General hadn't screwed up the postal service they could have just mailed it. LOL.

Link: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/10/tucker-carlson-lost-only-copy-of-documents-nailing-biden.html
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Thats what you get when you trust the private sector to do a task that dedicated public servants do better.
 
Louis Gossett Jr said:
Predictit has some serious PTSD from 2016, good look into human psychology, and also the inability when betting to infer independent probabilities. Guys it hasn’t hit black in like 10 times, it’s definitely more likely it’s going to hit black this time!
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A couple political gamblers from the UK, where there is more of a market for that than in America, have both said for months to bet everything on Biden and short Donald anywhere you can. One guy said that it's the biggest discrepancy in the "Vegas" odds and probabilities he's ever seen in decades of political gambling - basically said you'll never find value like this anywhere and still be able to call it "gambling."

Major reason for this is that the political market isn't as sophisticated, as big, or as well tuned as the sports market so with far fewer benchmarks (one presidential election every four years), recent memory is massive for a lot of people looking to lay a few bucks on the election.
 
Highland Deac said:
Latest news on the epic Hunter Biden scandal: Tucker Carlson said on his show tonight that his "team had acquired incriminating documents. However, they sent them from Washington to Los Angeles, and the documents disappeared. And they neglected to make any copies. So now the only copy of the documents that would nail the probable next President of the United States are gone." Tucker also claimed that the packages were "opened" and implied that the incriminating materials were stolen, no doubt by nefarious Biden agents. Or maybe his dog ate it. If only Trump and his Postmaster General hadn't screwed up the postal service they could have just mailed it. LOL.

Link: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/10/tucker-carlson-lost-only-copy-of-documents-nailing-biden.html
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Between this and Greg Jarrett’s WiFi not working at precisely the moment he filed a damning Biden column, the Deep State is working overtime. What next? Delta canceling a flight Rudy was going to take to DC to implicate Biden in a Senate hearing?
 
So what would be the best place to lay a few bucks on Biden and some Senate outcomes? If things go south, I'm going to be distraught so losing a few hundred won't hurt that much.
 
PhDeac said:
So what would be the best place to lay a few bucks on Biden and some Senate outcomes? If things go south, I'm going to be distraught so losing a few hundred won't hurt that much.
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I started texting some of my euro friends this same thing a few hours ago. I would NOT recommend wagering with DV7
 
birdman said:
This is definitely possible with the predictive modeling efforts, like 538. They input past voting patterns into the model to predict who will actually show up and vote this time, and the data I've seen indicate that youth voting turn out in 2020 is a massive outlier compared to recent elections.
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At least compared to 2016 you are right there is data showing it is a massive outlier. Have no idea how polls are accounting for this. But we're talking 8-10x increases in under 30 set early voting many states. In some states that alone might be enough to change the outcome if all else from 2016 were to remain static in terms of margins.

Some gaucho math here. Assign 60% of these voters to Biden and 40% to Trump regardless of the state (will be more in some states and maybe less in others). Nationally polls say Biden is polling at 63% to 25% among the under 30 set. So perhaps these numbers overall are too conservative in some places. Applying that 60/40 split to actual votes already cast by the under 30 set we're talking:

- a net estimated gain of over 34,000 votes for Democrats already in Michigan (which Trump won by 10,000 in 2016).
- in Florida that net gain would be over 240,000 votes in a state Trump won by 113,000 in 2016.
- in Minnesota the net gain would be 26,500 votes in a state the Dems won by 45,000 in 2016.
- in Pennsylvania the gain would be 30,000 in a state Trump won by 44,000 in 2016.

Places where that massive increase in turnout may not be enough to really make up a difference include Texas, Ohio, Iowa and NC. Trump won Texas by 800,000 votes. The early turnout would eat out about 150K of that margin. Trump won Ohio by over 400K votes and youth early voting would eat away about 32,000 of that margin. In Iowa 147K gets eaten away by 11.5K. In NC the 170,000 margin gets eaten away by 66,000. IOW, it takes other significant moves to really dent those states.

So yes, the youth turnout could be very important. What isn't clear to me is how much their turnout gains are relative to other age groups. It also isn't clear how these massive gains in early voting will translate to overall voting gains for the youth demographic. The above calculations are based on data that was current as of yesterday.
 
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Highland Deac said:
Latest news on the epic Hunter Biden scandal: Tucker Carlson said on his show tonight that his "team had acquired incriminating documents. However, they sent them from Washington to Los Angeles, and the documents disappeared. And they neglected to make any copies. So now the only copy of the documents that would nail the probable next President of the United States are gone." Tucker also claimed that the packages were "opened" and implied that the incriminating materials were stolen, no doubt by nefarious Biden agents. Or maybe his dog ate it. If only Trump and his Postmaster General hadn't screwed up the postal service they could have just mailed it. LOL.

Link: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/10/tucker-carlson-lost-only-copy-of-documents-nailing-biden.html
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LOL what a clown. I remember when he was the educated centrist conservative and now he's just another fucking FOX News hack.
 
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