• Welcome to OGBoards 10.0, keep in mind that we will be making LOTS of changes to smooth out the experience here and make it as close as possible functionally to the old software, but feel free to drop suggestions or requests in the Tech Support subforum!

2020 Presidential Election: Biden v. Trump

Yeah I may be wrong but I just don’t see it. With no COVID the economy is probably absolutely roaring and who knows if the reaction to the social/racial equality issues reaches the same level. We’ve had record voter turnout efforts and early voting results. We have a president who has not only done nothing to combat the worst crisis in ??? but has actually invested everything in pretending it’s not even real. All while acting like a complete buffoon and shitting on basically any and everyone he doesn’t like. And we are still basically at a coin flip a week before the election. Maybe “landslide” is too extreme but I doubt we are even having a conversation about who wins the election at this point without COVID.
 
not sure i agree with that...

i think nothing has really changed. those that like trump would still vote for him and everyone else would vote biden. he could win again, as now, but i don't think much would change outside of the increase in youth voting (and that might have happened anyway).
 
Also with no COVID I think Biden is really hurt as a candidate. He’s ancient, not exciting, no real compelling track record besides serving under Obama. Not the kind of candidate to turn out the base except where the other guy happens to be absolutely deplorable.
 
warak said:
not sure i agree with that...

i think nothing has really changed. those that like trump would still vote for him and everyone else would vote biden. he could win again, as now, but i don't think much would change outside of the increase in youth voting (and that might have happened anyway).
Click to expand...

I disagree with that. Trump was a novelty candidate for a ton of voters, many of whom just didn't like Hillary Clinton. He's not novel anymore, and Hillary isn't running. Hillary wasn't just a stand-in candidate for establishment Democrats - she was a very well known and polarizing political celebrity. Biden is a lot of things, but he was never polarizing, and he still isn't. Very few people *hate* Joe Biden.
 
We will never, ever know how the world would have unfolded without Covid. Speculating about what may or may not have happened in terms of other world events is impossible. Speculating who would have won absent Covid is easier. I think Biden would have won going away. And I think he is going to win going away with Covid too.
 
myDeaconmyhand said:
I disagree with that. Trump was a novelty candidate for a ton of voters, many of whom just didn't like Hillary Clinton. He's not novel anymore, and Hillary isn't running. Hillary wasn't just a stand-in candidate for establishment Democrats - she was a very well known and polarizing political celebrity. Biden is a lot of things, but he was never polarizing, and he still isn't. Very few people *hate* Joe Biden.
Click to expand...

nobody really likes Biden though...as bad a president as trump has been, the same people will still vote for him. i just don't think the needle moved much and it will be close again...which is highly troubling for someone that follows politics.

p.s. i love how the trump campaign is leaning on the socialist calling card for Biden when trump is the most socialist president that i can remember.
 
Pilchard said:
Heard some slightly encouraging news today:

After Trump won in 2016, some adjustments were made to the polling process and the resulting predictive modeling to account for biases that favored Clinton and failed to account for voters leaning to Trump. Currently, as a result of learning from those mistakes, the thinking is that the polls are more accurate or to the extent they are wrong the polls are more geared to benefit Trump.

IOW, to the extent the polls do not reflect how the voting is likely to go, at least some pollsters think that the current numbers don't account for the level of support for Biden.

Not going to feel comfortable until it's over, but it's an encouraging notion that polls may not fully reflect the support that Biden haa built.
Click to expand...

And it's possible polls aren't accounting for the massive youth vote.

myDeaconmyhand said:
I disagree with that. Trump was a novelty candidate for a ton of voters, many of whom just didn't like Hillary Clinton. He's not novel anymore, and Hillary isn't running. Hillary wasn't just a stand-in candidate for establishment Democrats - she was a very well known and polarizing political celebrity. Biden is a lot of things, but he was never polarizing, and he still isn't. Very few people *hate* Joe Biden.
Click to expand...

Exactly. Hillary lost a lot of people on the margins and Trump as an unknown attracted a lot of people on the margins.

BarcaDeac said:
doubt we ever get one of those again
Click to expand...

Depends on what happens with ERA ratification. I think that depends on Dems winning the Senate. So there's one.
 
mako1331 said:
Man, I guess as I rapidly approach 40, 70 isn't too old for me anymore.
Click to expand...

Basically your friends' hot moms are turning 70 now. Lynda Carter is arguably the hottest woman who has ever lived and time is helping make that argument.
 
BarcaDeac said:
doubt we ever get one of those again
Click to expand...

I would never say never. And if one is going to arise it will be after some sort of traumatic issue is resolved in a highly charged environment (like we face now).

Think about the daunting task facing Biden if he wins the Presidency. The virus has to be brought under more control. The economy will be in absolute shambles for years. We have literally printed more money this year than we did in the first 200 years of the nation's existence. And, relative to the rest of the developed world, we've generally printed less as a percentage of GDP. The fallout from that fact alone, both domestically and internationally, will be incredible over the coming 12-36 months (minimum). The US and the world is facing a once in 2-3 generations crisis and the potential demands and traumatic global events that could unfold are vast. For that reason alone all sane people should be voting for Biden. The idea of Trump "leading" in such a scenario is a recipe of complete catastrophe.
 
warak said:
nobody really likes Biden though...as bad a president as trump has been, the same people will still vote for him.
Click to expand...

When you say the same people, I just really disagree. For many people, Trump was basically a joke, "fuck you" novelty candidate, and for many other moderate Republicans, he was the straight ticket Republican candidate. That novelty is gone. He's lost a lot of moderate Republican votes, and he's lost a lot of anti-Hillary contrarian votes. Sure, Trump has absolutely emboldened and encouraged hard line social conservatives and racists - those are his ride or dies, but those people only make up a portion of his vote total from 2016.
 
myDeaconmyhand said:
I disagree with that. Trump was a novelty candidate for a ton of voters, many of whom just didn't like Hillary Clinton. He's not novel anymore, and Hillary isn't running. Hillary wasn't just a stand-in candidate for establishment Democrats - she was a very well known and polarizing political celebrity. Biden is a lot of things, but he was never polarizing, and he still isn't. Very few people *hate* Joe Biden.
Click to expand...

We often disagree, but I'm with you here. Hillary depressed the turnout and drove up the 3rd party vote %s in 2016. Trump was always going to lose some of that novelty vote from last time and drive up the anti-Trump turnout this time no matter who the Dem nominee was. And the fact that the nominee was bland, generic, old Uncle Joe who has a bit of a teflon coating was only going to help any fence sitters pull the blue lever. Without covid, it would likely have stayed a 4-5 point race with a higher turnout than 2016, and the probable result would have been Biden with 270-90 EVs,
 
warak said:
nobody really likes Biden though...as bad a president as trump has been, the same people will still vote for him. i just don't think the needle moved much and it will be close again...which is highly troubling for someone that follows politics.

p.s. i love how the trump campaign is leaning on the socialist calling card for Biden when trump is the most socialist president that i can remember.
Click to expand...

Imagine if the dems had nominated an actual socialist??!
 
warak said:
nobody really likes Biden though...as bad a president as trump has been, the same people will still vote for him. i just don't think the needle moved much and it will be close again...which is highly troubling for someone that follows politics.

p.s. i love how the trump campaign is leaning on the socialist calling card for Biden when trump is the most socialist president that i can remember.
Click to expand...

Biden is old. And he wasn't many folks' 1st choice. But he was a lot of folks' 2nd choice and by far the safest and most generic choice. He was always going to outperform Hillary because of the anti-Trump fervor, not because he is exciting to anyone except Jill Biden and Leslie Knope.
 
PhDeac said:
And it's possible polls aren't accounting for the massive youth vote.
Click to expand...

This is definitely possible with the predictive modeling efforts, like 538. They input past voting patterns into the model to predict who will actually show up and vote this time, and the data I've seen indicate that youth voting turn out in 2020 is a massive outlier compared to recent elections.
 
birdman said:
This is definitely possible with the predictive modeling efforts, like 538. They input past voting patterns into the model to predict who will actually show up and vote this time, and the data I've seen indicate that youth voting turn out in 2020 is a massive outlier compared to recent elections.
Click to expand...

I've been hoping this would be the case. Thanks for confirming my hopes.
 
she just combined forces with one of my favorite Twitter video people

 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top