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2020 Presidential Election: Biden v. Trump

Shooshmoo said:
This -- just saw Lil Marco's ridiculous speech at a Trump rally and its clear he, and likely others, will try to emulate Trump's behavior going forward, not shift away from it. It's who they have always been underneath, and now they are just proudly coming out.
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LOL. Marco Rubio is not cut from Donald Trump's cloth. It's as dumb as saying AOC really loves Joe Biden. There are maybe three veins of what little remains of the GOP. Trump (that brand is toast if he loses), old school types who are akin to Clinton era Dems (Rubio and Ted Cruz fit here - the traditional playbook before there was Trump) and guys like Sasse from Nebraska who have already run away from Trump and will take a different tact on several issues.
 
Personally, I think that if Biden wins and the Democrats take the Senate, you are going to have a few years of turmoil in the GOP and then the Lincoln Party types are going to reconcile with the populist wing of the party by 2028 because they know a three party system won't work and there will be someone slightly less offensive than Trump in line to lead the party. The only way a multi party system works in the US is with drastic changes to voting, such as ranked choice and representation by vote percentage instead of a straight win or lose ballot. If one party splits, they will lose tremendous ground to the remaining major party. Neither side's leadership will risk that. Ideally, both parties would split and we would have a populist, conservative, moderate, and progressive party set up, but that takes more power away from those that already have it, so it will never happen.
 
cville deac said:
I agree about PA - it's a 5 point race there, probably too much for Trump to overcome without SCOTUS assistance. But FL has tightened the last few days. That and I don't trust FL, and once again, I expect to see long lines there in darker hued precincts. You need to do more to talk me off the ledge. Try harder.:)
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The real headline here should read that Democrats netted up about 35K votes yesterday in Florida and now hold a 100K lead. So they reversed the trend that had seen the early lead evaporate.

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/p...0201102-fm3kl6eagvdu7lnwiyyqfbgsby-story.html

And the idea the most populous county in the state is going to end up with more GOP voters than Dem voters is not realistic at all. See the map in the above.

Also see this. Coin is weighted as you'd like but admittedly still has to be flipped.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/florida/
 
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DeacMan said:
Only if you think we're heading to a three party system. Maybe. But that seems like the outcome if you are correct. So you'd have to buy into that outcome.
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It would be nice if another party gained traction. Libertarian, Something new (Christian Democrat)... and then campaign reform.

A slight adjustment to the Electoral College (give points for most states and popular vote).

And something better emerges.
 
Rubio was a Tea Party darling during his first 2010 run. He’s only been a minor hinderance to Trump. Rubio is an empty suit. He is what he needs to be to win. That’s going to make his 2022 run difficult if Trump loses FL.
 
DeacMan said:
The real headline here should read that Democrats netted up about 35K votes yesterday in Florida and now hold a 100K lead. So they reversed the trend that had seen the early lead evaporate.

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/p...0201102-fm3kl6eagvdu7lnwiyyqfbgsby-story.html

And the idea the most populous county in the state is going to end up with more GOP voters than Dem voters is not realistic at all. See the map in the above.

Also see this. Coin is weighted as you'd like but admittedly still has to be flipped.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/florida/
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Okay, but the easy majority who vote tomorrow will be Pub, so they could easily overcome a 100K lead. Damn it man, try harder! Talk me off this ledge!
 
Thankfully the election is not decided by rural high school students, because Trump would win at around 98 percent, and Biden would be put in jail for sniffing children.
 
cville deac said:
Okay, but the easy majority who vote tomorrow will be Pub, so they could easily overcome a 100K lead. Damn it man, try harder! Talk me off this ledge!
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Why is the "easy" majority of who votes tomorrow "Pub"? They're 2% off early Dem voters. So either the Dems have failed to turnout or the Pubs are vastly turning out more than the Dems. overall. And I find that hard to believe.
 
Once Dump loses, no matter the margin, Pubs will run from him. (See HRC in 2016).
He may get a Fox Channel and hefty speaking fees, but voting Pubs will be out to rebuild the Party moving to the center for the 2022, 2024 races and get back to the issues.
Equally curious what happens to the Dems and whether Joe makes it to 2024. And if so; what happens then.
 
cville deac said:
I'm with Birdman, Ph and Shoo. The Base loves and worships Trump. DC pols may distance themselves from Trump if and when he loses and try to steer the party in a different direction. But the base doesn't read Will, Brooks and Frum or listen to the Lincoln Project. They watch Fox. Hannity, Carlson, Ingraham and Dobbs aren't pushing the same type of conservatism George Will is. They're pushing white nationalist populism and isolationism....
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Yep


And many (most?) are so steeped in disinformation and conspiracy theory BS they qualify as batshit crazy...willing to believe all kinds of fantastic lies about the criminality and corruption of the Democrats. And to cut off family ties if there’s not adequate buy in to the insanity they’ve embraced.


Really tragic.
 
DeacsPop said:
Once Dump loses, no matter the margin, Pubs will run from him. (See HRC in 2016).
He may get a Fox Channel and hefty speaking fees, but voting Pubs will be out to rebuild the Party moving to the center for the 2022, 2024 races and get back to the issues.
Equally curious what happens to the Dems and whether Joe makes it to 2024. And if so; what happens then.
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Lol.

Doubtful.


Hopefully we’ll get to find out.
 
PhDeac said:
Rubio was a Tea Party darling during his first 2010 run. He’s only been a minor hinderance to Trump. Rubio is an empty suit. He is what he needs to be to win. That’s going to make his 2022 run difficult if Trump loses FL.
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Rubio hasn't been a hindrance to Trump at all, and now he's a full bore, maniacal Trumper. Not sure who deacman has been watching recently, but it's not Lil Marco. You can't watch his rally speech and think he's not all in trying to be the next Trump.
 
DeacsPop said:
Once Dump loses, no matter the margin, Pubs will run from him. (See HRC in 2016).
He may get a Fox Channel and hefty speaking fees, but voting Pubs will be out to rebuild the Party moving to the center for the 2022, 2024 races and get back to the issues.
Equally curious what happens to the Dems and whether Joe makes it to 2024. And if so; what happens then.
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Out of curiosity what "issues" are the GOP going to run on besides abortion?
 
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Shooshmoo said:
Rubio hasn't been a hindrance to Trump at all, and now he's a full bore, maniacal Trumper. Not sure who deacman has been watching recently, but it's not Lil Marco. You can't watch his rally speech and think he's not all in trying to be the next Trump.
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I would not say he is a maniacal Trumper, he's fucking gutless coward and has no capacity to lead the GOP back to rational thought*. All of them are either actual fascists or are cowards. Ben Sasse may step forward to lead conservative America but he'll lose the GOP primary miserably to a Qanon inspired Louisiana Sherriff's deputy who's killed 3 black people and a Mexican in the line of duty, or some shit.

*have the GOP been anywhere in the realm of rational thought since Eisenhower?
 
Listened to some of Biden's Cleveland rally and I think he did a really job. One of his better speeches, IMO. He's dialed in
 
DeacMan said:
Why is the "easy" majority of who votes tomorrow "Pub"? They're 2% off early Dem voters. So either the Dems have failed to turnout or the Pubs are vastly turning out more than the Dems. overall. And I find that hard to believe.
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I appreciate your valiant efforts. Feeling a bit better. If FL is called for Biden tomorrow night, the map does not favor Trump.
 
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